Reply to: Doom

[scooterscot]

It's been the best recession ever for those who had tracker mortgages just before this blew up. Their houses must be almost paid for by now, thanks to savers and renters. They must be revelling at the thought of another bailout. It hasn't been bad for bankers either.

Me rental house has a 0.49% above base, rent more than double of mortgage.

The nice part is if I need to borrow money back I take it from the mortgage savings account, effective interest on loan being 0.949% opposed credit card nonsense at 18%.

The mortgage lender cannot be making any money on me. I almost feel sorry for them. Naaa

[AlfredJPruffock]

What is the likely scenario for the UK for the next 5 years

Five Years- thats All we;ve got
News Guy wept and told us - Earth was really dieing
Cired so much his fac was wet
Then I knew he was not lieing

[Platypus]

That's the only one I can think of. Maybe the yanks will be forced to sell some of their reserve to raise funds instead of cutting trillions, once people start rioting like in Greece.

It's well known that the Yanks have no gold left:
Russia Says IMF Chief Jailed For Discovering All US Gold Is Gone | EUTimes.net

[TimberWolf]

It would have been if the job market didn't dry up at exactly the same time.

I would have been happier if RBS and Nationwide went bust.

Me too. Followed by a deep crash and dep/recession, rather this dragging it out over generations malarky. We should have been first in and first out.

[gingerjedi]

It's been the best recession ever for those who had tracker mortgages just before this blew up. Their houses must be almost paid for by now, thanks to savers and renters. They must be revelling at the thought of another bailout. It hasn't been bad for bankers either.

It would have been if the job market didn't dry up at exactly the same time.

I would have been happier if RBS and Nationwide went bust.

[PAH]

Waiting for FTSE to go <5500 before considering in.

I've noticed it hovering around 5800-6000 for weeks. Only in the last few days has it started to fall significantly below that, so you may have timed it right!

Might look into a FTSE tracker and drip-feed some of my cash into it, once it's clear the fall isn't a precursor to a crash.

[PAH]

Governments selling off gold?

That's the only one I can think of. Maybe the yanks will be forced to sell some of their reserve to raise funds instead of cutting trillions, once people start rioting like in Greece.

There must be other possible events. What generally causes the price of gold to drop other than market supply increase?

[MarillionFan]

It's been the best recession ever for those who had tracker mortgages just before this blew up. Their houses must be almost paid for by now, thanks to savers and renters. They must be revelling at the thought of another bailout. It hasn't been bad for bankers either.

I removed all of the cash from my offset and placed it in bonds, ISAs, cash accounts, equities. Receiving an average of 4% after tax but paying the bank 0.98% on 300k, and Ive been trading in / out equities with the rest with mixed success. Pulled out the majority of shares about 10 days ago assuming it would slide. Waiting for
FTSE to go <5500 before considering in.

[TimberWolf]

What event is likely within the next year to make it change course or crash?

Governments selling off gold?

Re, my question, it's £33,000/kg now. That didn't take long.

[PAH]

Hmm, gold is threatening to break through £33,000/kg today.

What event is likely within the next year to make it change course or crash?

[suityou01]

Asia markets slump

Shares in Asian markets have fallen on Wednesday, tracking US declines, after figures showed that the US economy is struggling to recover.
Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell 2.2% in early trade. Benchmark indices in South Korea, Hong Kong and Australia were also down more than 2%.

Grab a tin tray folks and lean into the bends.

[PAH]

It's been the best recession ever for those who had tracker mortgages just before this blew up.

Not so good if they've not been overpaying the mortgage, instead using the surplus cash to buy fancy new cars and expensive holidays, or 'extravagent' food such as toms on the vine.

Many also have mortgage deals that have or are due to end and find they can't get the same deal elsewhere as they have less equity in their home, due to MEWing or house price reduction.

Then they get to a scenario where they want to move and find themselves in negative equity and without a big deposit for their new mortgage.

Reality is that a person on an average wage can't afford a property of average value.

Only manipulation of the market (artificially low interest rates, 100%+ mortgages, interest only mortgages, government paying mortgage interest while they're unemployed) is allowing the game to continue. It must rebalance sometime. There is no end to boom and bust, no matter what Gordo says.

[TimberWolf]

Hmm, gold is threatening to break through £33,000/kg today.

[suityou01]

That's ok for jo pubic as long as wages are also inflating, otherwise fewer and fewer will be able to get new mortgages and homes won't sell, much like we are already seeing.

Seems we have biflation or whatever it's called, where certain items are inflating noticably (food, fuel) while others are slowly deflating (houses, imported electronics).

All very confusing to people like me with little nouse of economics and current influences on the UK.

What is the likely scenario for the UK for the next 5 years, anyone have a genuine inkling based on more than a guess or wishful thinking?

I predict a riot.

[TimberWolf]

It's been the best recession ever for those who had tracker mortgages just before this blew up. Their houses must be almost paid for by now, thanks to savers and renters. They must be revelling at the thought of another bailout. It hasn't been bad for bankers either.