The dollar has a half life of 3.5 years

[OwlHoot]

That doesn't look quite right. A half-life of 3.5 years is almost 3 halvings in 10 years (10/3.5=2.86), which would be around 121mg/2/2/2 = 15 mg compared to their 10 mg. Given those numbers, the half life would be 10*log(0.5) / log(22/121) = 4.066 years.

Looking at actual prices, in March 2001, gold was $10,285 / kg, and is currently (10 years later) $45,975 / kg. So the half-life over that period was 4.63 years.

Over the last 5 years, it would be 5*log(0.5) / log(20,374/45,975) = 4.26 years, or a 15% devaluation against gold per year.

Over the last 20 years : the half-life of the dollar against gold is 10 years!

i.e. in 1991 gold was $11,500 / kg. Double that to bring us up to 2001 = $23000 (the first 10 years), and double again (the next 10 years) to bring us up to 2011 = $46000, which is about today's gold price.

So over the last 20 years, your money halved what it was worth against gold every 10 years.

Sterling has done about as badly as the dollar against gold in that period. Gold can go down as well as up though.

Jesus TW, you aren't half a plodder sometimes.

You don't have to work it all out - Just take his word for it (even if it was slightly wrong).

Anyway, aren't you using a different interval?

[fullyautomatix]

or the price of gold has gone up.....

WHS

SuitYou, please stick to your usual sy02, sy03 threads please.

[Sockpuppet]

or the price of gold has gone up.....

[suityou01]

That doesn't look quite right. A half-life of 3.5 years is almost 3 halvings in 10 years (10/3.5=2.86), which would be around 121mg/2/2/2 = 15 mg compared to their 10 mg. Given those numbers, the half life would be 10*log(0.5) / log(22/121) = 4.066 years.

Looking at actual prices, in March 2001, gold was $10,285 / kg, and is currently (10 years later) $45,975 / kg. So the half-life over that period was 4.63 years.

Over the last 5 years, it would be 5*log(0.5) / log(20,374/45,975) = 4.26 years, or a 15% devaluation against gold per year.

Over the last 20 years : the half-life of the dollar against gold is 10 years!

i.e. in 1991 gold was $11,500 / kg. Double that to bring us up to 2001 = $23000 (the first 10 years), and double again (the next 10 years) to bring us up to 2011 = $46000, which is about today's gold price.

So over the last 20 years, your money halved what it was worth against gold every 10 years.

Sterling has done about as badly as the dollar against gold in that period. Gold can go down as well as up though.

Er <cough>

WHS

[TimberWolf]

In February of 2001, the US Dollar would buy about 121 mg of gold. In March of 2011, it will buy about 22 mg of gold,...It turns out that over the last 10 years, the half-life of the US Dollar has been 3.5 years.

That doesn't look quite right. A half-life of 3.5 years is almost 3 halvings in 10 years (10/3.5=2.86), which would be around 121mg/2/2/2 = 15 mg compared to their 10 mg. Given those numbers, the half life would be 10*log(0.5) / log(22/121) = 4.066 years.

Looking at actual prices, in March 2001, gold was $10,285 / kg, and is currently (10 years later) $45,975 / kg. So the half-life over that period was 4.63 years.

Over the last 5 years, it would be 5*log(0.5) / log(20,374/45,975) = 4.26 years, or a 15% devaluation against gold per year.

Over the last 20 years : the half-life of the dollar against gold is 10 years!

i.e. in 1991 gold was $11,500 / kg. Double that to bring us up to 2001 = $23000 (the first 10 years), and double again (the next 10 years) to bring us up to 2011 = $46000, which is about today's gold price.

So over the last 20 years, your money halved what it was worth against gold every 10 years.

Sterling has done about as badly as the dollar against gold in that period. Gold can go down as well as up though.

[suityou01]

Linky

n February of 2001, the US Dollar would buy about 121 mg of gold. In March of 2011, it will buy about 22 mg of gold, a decline of 82%. This drop has been gradual, and the intervening years have been filled with the sell-offs and rallies that are common to all markets. This period has been characterized by massive and growing public and private debts, central bank manipulation to keep interest rates artificially low, and the creation of trillions of new dollars to keep the financial system liquid and stave off recognition of personal, corporate, municipal, state and federal bankruptcies.

But a closer look reveals that the decline has not been linear, but logarithmic – just like the decay rate of radioactive particles. Physicists refer to the rate of this decay as a "half-life"… Knowing this number lets them answer the question, "How long will it take for the radiation level to fall in half?"

In the case of a currency, how long does it take for its value to fall in half?

It turns out that over the last 10 years, the half-life of the US Dollar has been 3.5 years. In other words, every 42 months, the dollar loses half of its value!