The official "guess GDP change in Q1 2011" thread

[Paddy]

+ 0.009

[Cliphead]

-0.4

[OwlHoot]

Here are the last four quarters' results, pinched from a reply to a BBC article, so don't blame me if they're wrong

2010 Q1 GDP - 0.3% (revised up from 0.2%)
2010 Q2 GDP - 1.2% (revised up from 1.1%)
2010 Q3 GDP - 0.7% (revised down from 0.8%)
2010 Q4 GDP - -0.5% (yet to be revised)

If you allow for Labour engineering an artificially high value of 1.2% prior to the election, and the snow last winter maybe reducing the Q4 figure by 0.2, it looks like a downward trend, like that U boat in Das Boot diving with the bow planes jammed.

So I'd guess -0.5% again


edit: It was widely expected that the VAT rate rise from 17.5% to 20% at the start of this year would stimulate demand towards the end of last year. So if the result was -0.5%, one assumes there wasn't enough incentive to spend then and presumably even less now it is 20% !

[AtW]

+0.1%, just enough to avoid a technical recession

0% (no change) would be enough to achieve that.

[Wodewick]

+1%

[Freamon]

+0.1%, just enough to avoid a technical recession, artificially supported by the extra demand that was delayed in December due to the snow.

I also suspect the Q4 10 GDP will be revised up to -0.4% or -0.3%.

[DimPrawn]

Who cares?

Sorry darling, no Moulard duck foie gras with pickled pear and 1999 Château Haut Bernasse Montbazillac tonight dear, GDP has fallen 0.2%.

[gingerjedi]

-20%

Civil unrest, bread queues and curfew.

[Doggy Styles]

-0.4%

Nudged up from last quarter by sales of Will and Kate memorabilia.

[MrRobin]

Oh go on then... someone has to provide some optimism.

+0.2%

[Mich the Tester]

It will change a little bit.

[doodab]

-0.7%

[AtW]

-0.9%

[ThomasSoerensen]

-0.9%

[AtW]

You can guess only one, posts from sockies will be ignored.

Rules: whoever closest to first official figure due to be announced in April 2011 wins.

I start: GDP in Q1 2011 will drop by 0.2%.