Reply to: Cripes - Not long until the balloon goes up!

[OwlHoot]

Today's tin hat theory - The Yanks released the docs deliberately, having to include some unflattering and damaging ones to look plausible, but with the primary aim of publicising Middle Eastern leaders' urging them to clobber Iranian nuclear facilities.

That way those leaders can't deny having urged them to do so, and even claim the opposite, if and when the US (or Israel) does attack the facilities, possibly with tactical underground nukes.

Sound plausible?

[EternalOptimist]

Unlike the "Great War"...

Exactly. The tunnels in WWI (and the American civil war) were not for attack or infiltration, they were for planting mines.
If I were a south korean, I would be very concerned about what the North were sticking in those tunnels, I think soldiers would be the least of their concerns

[SupremeSpod]

You are not wrong. Its fantasyland to suggest that large units could use tunnels in this way. They may be useful to infiltrate small parties, like the sewer systems in WWII city warfare, but that is only ever going to be of any use in a static type situation.
The Germans used infiltration units quite extensively, but dressed commandos in enemy uniforms, and drove captured vehicles. They never had the need to burrow.

Unlike the "Great War"...

[EternalOptimist]

No doubt, but surely a tunnel big enough to get 100s of tanks and 10,000s of men through isn't going to go unnoticed, and once noticed it's going to be pretty easy for a single American bomber with a single bomb to take out the tunnel entrance and stop the invasion dead in its tracks.

It's hard to believe that anything of that scale happens in secret these days. But I may be wrong.

You are not wrong. Its fantasyland to suggest that large units could use tunnels in this way. They may be useful to infiltrate small parties, like the sewer systems in WWII city warfare, but that is only ever going to be of any use in a static type situation.
The Germans used infiltration units quite extensively, but dressed commandos in enemy uniforms, and drove captured vehicles. They never had the need to burrow.

[VectraMan]

Far fetched? They've been burrowing away like moles under the DMZ at the border for the last thirty years.

No doubt, but surely a tunnel big enough to get 100s of tanks and 10,000s of men through isn't going to go unnoticed, and once noticed it's going to be pretty easy for a single American bomber with a single bomb to take out the tunnel entrance and stop the invasion dead in its tracks.

It's hard to believe that anything of that scale happens in secret these days. But I may be wrong.

[OwlHoot]

Eeek!

Though North Korea invading the South by tunnel seems a little far fetched.

Far fetched? They've been burrowing away like moles under the DMZ at the border for the last thirty years.

Skim through that "planeman" report I referenced and you'll see - I think the tunnels are mentioned near the end.

(I think planeman concluded that most if not all the tunnels have been detected though, but who knows? )

[VectraMan]

Countdown to Oblivion: North Korea artillery strike - the Start of the First Nuclear War?

I know the Daily Wail seem to make a lot of stuff up, but this time they've got a fiction writer (Tom Cain) to make up the news for them.

Quite a chilling and sobering read.

Eeek!

Though North Korea invading the South by tunnel seems a little far fetched.

[CheeseSlice]

Countdown to Oblivion: North Korea artillery strike - the Start of the First Nuclear War?

I know the Daily Wail seem to make a lot of stuff up, but this time they've got a fiction writer (Tom Cain) to make up the news for them.

Quite a chilling and sobering read.

[shaunbhoy]

it should all be over by Christmas

Have we heard that somewhere before?

[EternalOptimist]

It will be interesting to see how Japan react to the raising of tensions in the region. If they do reenter the world stage as a major player, they could make someone a very powerful ally, even without nukes.
The Chinese and the Koreans fear the japs, and with good reason.

If the NK can launch a suprise attack, they could overrun SK in days, aircraft will not stop that happening. If the SK mobilise and get a few days to prepare, the NK will hit a brick wall and will get hammered.

it should all be over by Christmas

[configman]

Aye.



Nope; in this case China is 'mates' with NK, but when it comes to 'putting up' they will say, 'steady on now do be a prat'.

China - NK might be a mate but is more of an most of the time.

China are being tactical - if war breaks out it is on China's border and potentially millions of refugee's will spill across it's borders and they don't want that. In the last Korean war the stupid yanks wanted to continue into China after pushing all the way through NK - that was when China got involved and pushed the yanks/brits/SK all the way back. Notice how China did not get involved until it's own sovereignty was threatened. If war breaks out it is unlikely this time that a stupid yank commander will continue across the border into China.

To many people expect China to publicly rebuke NK - that is not the Chinese way. Behind the scenes it is a totally different issue.

[Platypus]

The US and China both have too much to lose in a war: China's exports to the US and Europe would dry up, thereby ruining their economy. They've come too far to let that happen.

The last thing the US needs right now is another war: they need to focus on their recovering economy, and more of their boys dying in some far-flung land would be about as popular as anal syphilis.

They'll talk it out, and will knock SK and NK's heads together and tell them to stop being to f'king stupid.

<fingers crossed for common sense smiley>

[HairyArsedBloke]

No and no.

If anything we should be concerned about it's the picture that's not getting much light. The US is unlikely to play softly softly with NK if war breaks out for full well it knows Iran is watching.

Aye.

Oh. I thought this essentially was US v China. Then all their mates turn up to the party. At the minute the US is effectively shoving them in the chest and going "yeah, fink you're hard do you?"

Just worried China and it's allies will just lay them out in one punch.

Nope; in this case China is 'mates' with NK, but when it comes to 'putting up' they will say, 'steady on now do be a prat'.

China - NK might be a mate but is more of an most of the time.

[Colour Sergeant Bourne]

Easy lad

No need to panic, carry on as normal

[OwlHoot]

If any NK warheads exist the yanks shall have each and every one of them targeted and made redundant in the first 5 minutes of war. If an advance on foot occurs I can't see the US and SK wasting the time with ground war, airstrikes will suffice. The whole thing shall be over a few days later with NK left worse off.

WHS

It wouldn't be like the Germans marching into Belgium - South Korea has at least half the strength of the North Korean forces, and with the Yanks' help I imagine they could stop an incursion in it's tracks, although not without suffering a fair bit of damage.

edit: Someone recently prepared an interesting article Bluffer's Guide: North Korea strikes! (2009), referenced from a current thread on the ARRSE Forum