Reply to: Weather forecasts

[Benno]

Recently a location in the UK that relies on income from travellers complained about the poor weather forecast the Met Office gave for the area. Apparently the Met Office said the weather would be poor for the weekend but it turned out to be a real scorcher and the town lost a lot of revenue because people stayed away.

When put to the Met Office they stated "we were busy observing interesting weather in France and that affected some of our UK forecasts" - enough said about the quality of the Met Office service. KNowing some people there from the past I understand that to be a poor and possibly untrue excuse and the spokesperson was not being exactly truthful.

That was somewhere up in the Highlands, where the Met Office used the data for Aviemore, but the other place has it's own kind of microclimate which bears no relation to Aviemore despite being fairly nearby, though I can't remember the actual place.

edit -knew I'd find it, with the added bonus of a HMHB lyric
http://michaelgreenwell.wordpress.co...ather-friends/

[minestrone]

On the BBC news weather chart France makes up about that same area as England, Holland is about the same size as Wales or Scotland. As our weather is predominately from the West there is no need to show Sweden and Norway taking up nearly as much room as the UK.

[SuperZ]

Recently a location in the UK that relies on income from travellers complained about the poor weather forecast the Met Office gave for the area. Apparently the Met Office said the weather would be poor for the weekend but it turned out to be a real scorcher and the town lost a lot of revenue because people stayed away.

When put to the Met Office they stated "we were busy observing interesting weather in France and that affected some of our UK forecasts" - enough said about the quality of the Met Office service. KNowing some people there from the past I understand that to be a poor and possibly untrue excuse and the spokesperson was not being exactly truthful.

[dang65]

If you can't see the point I'm making (ie trusting people who cannot predict something one hour ahead) then it really is a sad day.

You might as well ask how a doctor who can only treat cancer successfully about 60% of the time can be trusted to give a tetanus injection.

One is complex and wildly unpredictable in nature and the other is a basic routine.

[dang65]

It's such a win-win situation for governments and scientists.

Scenario A

It gets warmer in the future. Told you so, we did not reduce CO2 enough. More taxes.

Scenario B

It does not get warmer in the future. Thank-goodness we all paid those taxes on everything. Result!

I'm not really clear how Scenario A is a "win" situation? Scientists who are drawing attention to the currently changing climate aren't looking for points. They are trying to rally us in a last ditch attempt to prevent the huge amounts of damage we have already done from becoming terminal for much of the human race.

We've experienced dramatic climate change in the past, but it was at a time when there were less humans on the entire planet than there are now in New York. The few resources available then were shared amongst far fewer people than we have now.

Also, those people were way harder than we are. Basically, the planet was inhabited by a couple of million Ray Mearses instead of several billion Jade Goodys.

[Benno]

Should you need to know whether to put a jacket on to go to the pub or not, this site is worth a look...

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Checked it this morning before going on, just as well I did. And fortunate that the lasses doing an impromptu Miss Wet T-shirt contest didn't.

[DimPrawn]

It's such a win-win situation for governments and scientists.

Governments levy punitive taxation on everything that involves energy (transport, manufacturing, construction, utilities) to prevent "warming" in the future.

Scenario A

It gets warmer in the future. Told you so, we did not reduce CO2 enough. More taxes.

Scenario B

It does not get warmer in the future. Thank-goodness we all paid those taxes on everything. Result!

[Drewster]

This is the point. We can verify the weather and their forecasts are tulipe.

And yet we are supposed to accept without question as gospel, unverified, untestable forecasts on climate by the same morons using the same "models".

Errrrrrrrrrr I think thats what I said! I was agreeing with you - or at least agreeing that your suggestion had merit!

[Drewster shrugs shoulders and sighs!]
I don't know can't even support someone on CUK without them arguing with you.... Tut Tut... what is the world coming too... mutter mutter.....
[/Drewster shrugs shoulders and sighs!]

[sasguru]

If you can't see the point I'm making (ie trusting people who cannot predict something one hour ahead) then it really is a sad day.

.

we're

Are you really that limited, cranially?

[DimPrawn]

If you can't see the point I'm making (ie trusting people who cannot predict something one hour ahead) then it really is a sad day.

Shows the brainwashing that has gone on.

House prices only ever go up (tell that to the Japanese for the last 15 years)
The climate (which actually swings wildly) is going to get hotter.

[sasguru]

The climate is about the average over time, not a precise local forecast. There will be times when it suddenly snows for two weeks in January, or we have a heatwave in August, but the average over years and decades can still be measured and predicted with more accuracy than a local rainstorm changing direction and moving away from Swindon.

Yes you'll have to spell it out.
He's not called "Dim" for nothing.

[dang65]

This is the point. We can verify the weather and their forecasts are tulipe.

And yet we are supposed to accept without question as gospel, unverified, untestable forecasts on climate by the same morons using the same "models".

The climate is about the average over time, not a precise local forecast. There will be times when it suddenly snows for two weeks in January, or we have a heatwave in August, but the average over years and decades can still be measured and predicted with more accuracy than a local rainstorm changing direction and moving away from Swindon.

[sasguru]

And yet we are supposed to accept without question as gospel, unverified, untestable forecasts on climate by the same morons using the same "models".

Look at your avatar. It's pointing at you.

[snaw]

Here you go:

Though the UK is mostly under the influence of the maritime tropical air mass from the south-west, different regions are more susceptible than others when different air masses affect the country: Northern Ireland and the west of Scotland are the most exposed to the maritime polar air mass which brings cool moist air; the east of Scotland and north-east England are more exposed to the continental polar air mass which brings cold dry air; the south and south-east of England are more exposed to the continental tropical air mass which brings warm dry air; Wales and the south-west of England are the most exposed to the maritime tropical air mass which brings warm moist air.

[RichardCranium]

Being a cricketer I religiously check the weekend weather throughout the week.

Then you would have been interested in a comment on this morning's Science in Action where they said climate change will make cricket pitches harder, which suits Australian play, so the warmer and dryer the climate, the more the Australians will win the cricket.

I think there were one or two assumptions being made in that statement, plus a complete disregard of groundsmen.