Worst of recession behind us?

[TykeMerc]

Would you mind not being beardist? 8(>

He's a giant alient lizard, it's hardly surprising that he's beardist.

It's extra work peeling off the beard prior to biting off the head, that or deal with the dreaded curly hairs in the teeth issues......

On the original topic I don't see any sign of recovery yet.

[minestrone]

It's generally accepted that it takes six months for interest rate cuts to make an impact and the major cuts started from 5% in October. That means in theory that by March we should start to see some improvements, but with the impact of the credit-crunch these are unusual times, not least because of the dirth of mortgages, but also because of the fact that interest rates offered by banks remain relatively high.

It's generally accepted you just make stuff up with no basis on any fact.

[OwlHoot]

[url]New business and output fell again in January, but the pace of decline was slower than December, according to the services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), published on Wednesday...

So the rate of change in the acceleration of contraction is slowing.

[expat]

They ought to launch Branson into space on one of his rockets.

Serve the bearded **** right.

Would you mind not being beardist? 8(>

[AlfredJPruffock]

I agree with Richard Branson's assertion that the UK reccesion had bottomed out in December - that view can be verifed by the green shoots of recovery in the UK housing market with the return of first time buyers,

[Cyberman]

It's generally accepted that it takes six months for interest rate cuts to make an impact and the major cuts started from 5% in October. That means in theory that by March we should start to see some improvements, but with the impact of the credit-crunch these are unusual times, not least because of the dirth of mortgages, but also because of the fact that interest rates offered by banks remain relatively high.

IMO this recession has a long way to run yet because we are losing jobs at an enormous rate, taxes are far too high for those in work, and we have far too many people chasing jobs if they do become available. Dumping large volumes of workers from other EU states into the UK does not help either.....probably exacerbated by the dreaded minimum wage. I really do not see things turning around until 2010 which should be just in time for me to start drawing my pension.

[Gonzo]

New business and output fell again in January, but the pace of decline was slower than December, according to the services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), published on Wednesday.

The headline activity index rose for a second month in a row, to 42.5 in January from 40.2 in December, where anything below 50 represents a contraction in activity and anything above marks an increase.

The services industry is a crucial part of the UK economy, accounting for 75pc of gross domestic product, so the improvement in January will be taken as an encouraging sign that the lowest point of the cycle has been passed. It hit its lowest point in the survey’s 13-year history in November.

Where do they find these people

If something is going down, whether it is going down faster or more slowly than it was going down before, does not change the fact that it is still going down.

[Stan.goodvibes]

Yeah I saw that as well. Things are still getting worse, they are just getting worse at a slightly slower rate than they were so in a sense things are looking up.

Still got a way to go until things actually start getting better.

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One swallow does not make a summer, but it does make for a more satisfying BJ

[BrilloPad]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...behind-us.html

Services data show worst of recession could be behind us
The worst of the UK recession could be behind us, the latest survey from the services sector suggests.

New business and output fell again in January, but the pace of decline was slower than December, according to the services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), published on Wednesday.

The headline activity index rose for a second month in a row, to 42.5 in January from 40.2 in December, where anything below 50 represents a contraction in activity and anything above marks an increase.

The services industry is a crucial part of the UK economy, accounting for 75pc of gross domestic product, so the improvement in January will be taken as an encouraging sign that the lowest point of the cycle has been passed. It hit its lowest point in the survey’s 13-year history in November.

On another positive note business expectations in the services sector made it back into positive territory, rising to 55.9 last month. That was the highest level since September last year, before the financial crisis intensified with the collapse of Lehman Brothers in October.

“Today’s PMI data just could mark the start of the turnaround,” said Benjamin Williamson, economist at the Centre for Economics and Business Research. Vicky Redwood at Capital Economics agreed that the report “suggests that the worst of the recession may have been seen in the fourth quarter.”

Today’s survey followed the manufacturing and construction PMIs earlier in the week, which also showed the pace of decline slowed in January.

However, economists warned that although the survey showed an improvement in the sector, the figures also indicated that activity was still contracting sharply, and the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee was therefore unlikely to be deterred from cutting interest rates again tomorrow.

“Policymakers will be pleasantly surprised by today’s release but will by no means be putting the champagne on ice. We still expect the Bank of England to announce another 50 basis point reduction in the official Bank Rate tomorrow. Today’s data, whilst welcome, is unlikely to change that outcome,” said Mr Williamson.

The survey said that employment, which is usually a lagging indicator, fell at a record rate in the services sector in January.

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One swallow does not make a summer.