Reply to: Mortgage lending falls two thirds to record low

[blacjac]

I've been called a lot of things, but I haven't been called young or inexperienced for over 40 years!

Thanks all round.

[Cyberman]

Ah the naiveté of the young. You think being 'good' or 'bad' has any bearing whatsoever on how much work you get, or the rate you receive, then you should maybe go back to permie land. You'll ride the storm better when the coming cold wind blows through this industry.

WHS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[AtW]

You'll ride the storm better when the coming cold wind blows through this industry.

hurricane

away

[threaded]

good ones will....

Ah the naiveté of the young. You think being 'good' or 'bad' has any bearing whatsoever on how much work you get, or the rate you receive, then you should maybe go back to permie land. You'll ride the storm better when the coming cold wind blows through this industry.

[Cyberman]

The last recession killed house prices for five years. This time there is the added effect of extra debt, and a truly crumbling economy.

What makes you think people will be falling over themselves to borrow more within the next five years?

People will always borrow to buy houses, especially if we have seen the 'crash' that people are so keen to predict. Five years is a long time in economic terms and that would probably mean that we have had a Tory government for 4 years. We will be back to a growing economy by then with all the positive benefits such as more jobs, lower taxes and fewer non-jobs. The feel-good factor will be back and people will be 5 years older, especially our youngsters that will then be looking to buy property for the first time. Everything goes in cycles.

[Doggy Styles]

I don't expect houses to rise dramatically at all after having had rises of over 100% in recent years. Steady growth will do me and that will restart around 2010 due to low interest rates and better management of the economy by a new government.
I am currently paying a quarter(and falling) of what I was paying on a mortgage a year ago. A scenario of low interest rates which will kick-in in approx 6 months time as people drop off high fixed rate mortgages will stimulate people to buy rather than pay high rents. Remember, you heard it here first!!

The last recession killed house prices for five years. This time there is the added effect of extra debt, and a truly crumbling economy.

What makes you think people will be falling over themselves to borrow more within the next five years?

[blacjac]

good ones will....

[Cyberman]

Any good contractor would be keeping their payments the same and paying off the capital quicker saving them even more money in the long run.

Many good contractors will not be working and so this assertion is slightly optimistic !!!

[blacjac]

I don't expect houses to rise dramatically at all after having had rises of over 100% in recent years. Steady growth will do me and that will restart around 2010 due to low interest rates and better management of the economy by a new government.
I am currently paying a quarter(and falling) of what I was paying on a mortgage a year ago. A scenario of low interest rates which will kick-in in approx 6 months time as people drop off high fixed rate mortgages will stimulate people to buy rather than pay high rents. Remember, you heard it here first!!

Any good contractor would be keeping their payments the same and paying off the capital quicker saving them even more money in the long run.

[AtW]

I'm not saying this will happen immediately. I just see this scenario panning out over the next year or two as the economy improves.

During this time overpriced houses will be falling down to sensible levels so banks will be asking for hefty deposits to reduce their risks - lots of people will be in negative equity so they won't be able to move banks, perfect time for banks to recoup their subprime losses using high SVR rates.

[Cyberman]

This assumes these people will get a morgage at this rate - a very wrong assumption to make in current climate in my view.

Any new morgage will operate on the assumption of big asset falls - this means people who don't have a lot of equity in their house OR deposit won't get good rates in my view.

I'm not saying this will happen immediately. I just see this scenario panning out over the next year or two as the economy improves.

[AtW]

Many people are stuck on over 6% fixed mortgages There are mortgages currently available at around 3%, so considerable savings of around 50% can be made, even though these are not trackers.

This assumes these people will get a morgage at this rate - a very wrong assumption to make in current climate in my view.

Any new morgage will operate on the assumption of big asset falls - this means people who don't have a lot of equity in their house OR deposit won't get good rates in my view.

[Cyberman]

Those people won't get tracker morgages anymore, in fact they'd struggle to get new morgage anywhere and will have to stick with their current bank who will move them to SVR that has little to do with BoE rates.

The sooner asset prices get deflated the faster recovery will start - all Browns attempts to prolong this deflation will just result in longer recession here.

Many people are stuck on over 6% fixed mortgages There are mortgages currently available at around 3%, so considerable savings of around 50% can be made, even though these are not trackers. That means that people could double their mortgages(if they are stupid enough ) and still make the same monthly payments. This will put upward pressure on house prices around 2010 !!

[AtW]

as people drop off high fixed rate mortgages

Those people won't get tracker morgages anymore, in fact they'd struggle to get new morgage anywhere and will have to stick with their current bank who will move them to SVR that has little to do with BoE rates.

The sooner asset prices get deflated the faster recovery will start - all Browns attempts to prolong this deflation will just result in longer recession here.

[Cyberman]

Except that it's the past few years that have been the anomaly and which have caused the present crisis ie. A typical bubble.
Unless salaries start rising again (unlikely) don't expect house prices to start going up again anytime soon.

I don't expect houses to rise dramatically at all after having had rises of over 100% in recent years. Steady growth will do me and that will restart around 2010 due to low interest rates and better management of the economy by a new government.
I am currently paying a quarter(and falling) of what I was paying on a mortgage a year ago. A scenario of low interest rates which will kick-in in approx 6 months time as people drop off high fixed rate mortgages will stimulate people to buy rather than pay high rents. Remember, you heard it here first!!