Reply to: Boomed! Property boom back on!

[Stan.goodvibes]

13% so far - I reckon it will be 50% from peak to trough....

Sometime last year I read an article that stated for property to get back to the historical level of around 3.5 x yearly income, the market would have to drop about 60% (can't remember the exact figures) or wages would have to rise by about 86%.

When I arrived in the UK in June 1995 pretty well every house in the street was for sale, no-one had been buying for about 5 years, and it took cashback incentives and about 2% off the base interest rate for 2 years before the market started again.

This property down cycle has the very likely potential to be worse than the late 80s one.

[Liability]

the article is not that bad tbh

Over the 5-10 years you will, in majority of cases, make money but Id say that by August we should see price falls of a further 10-15% than maybe consider buying.

[BrilloPad]

Rubbish article. The market has another 20% to drop. Typical estate agent propaganda. Put your money in ING and B&B for a couple years, then buy the derelict house for 30,000 quid from the prat who paid 50,000 for it (after he's evicted the squatters).

13% so far - I reckon it will be 50% from peak to trough....

[Squatch]

Rubbish article. The market has another 20% to drop. Typical estate agent propaganda. Put your money in ING and B&B for a couple years, then buy the derelict house for 30,000 quid from the prat who paid 50,000 for it (after he's evicted the squatters).

[Stan.goodvibes]

Agree. Problem is we've had this property bubble for so long that ppl have got his unreal expectation that once the market 'turns' its going to go back to leaping up by 10-20% every year.

Historically this is not the case.

[Cyberman]

I'm picking a blip in the market while other investments are looking shaky. House prices will correct all the way back to the average ratio of around 3x earnings through the double-wammy of a fall in prices and inflation. This will take a small number of years, then *hopefully* they will go up in value closer to the ratio, instead of ballooning out again.

Its happened before several times.

Of course buying quality property for the long term in growth areas is just as sound a strategy as it's always been, its only the speculators that are backing away

Back in the mid-90's I bought a couple of properties in Putney (1995 - the end of the property bust years). The second one I paid 156k, spent a load renovating it, sold it in 2000 for 275k, and today its supposedly worth around 500k. Sorry, London was a cool place to live, but lifestyle-wise theres no way I'd think about paying 500k for a 2-bed terrace.

There are better places in the world to live for cheaper

I think things will pick up around 2010/11 when we get a new, hopefully vibrant, proactive government who will know how to stimulate the market and economy with lower taxes and interest rates.
Interest rates should be much lower than they are now, in order to build confidence and at least reduce some people's commitments, but in 2009 I am sure the bank rate will not be much more than 3% anyway. It's just a shame that we seem to be tiptoeing with no clear strategy at the moment. HMG are still worrying about inflation which shows they just don't have a clue as to how serious the current situation really is.

[Stan.goodvibes]

I'm picking a blip in the market while other investments are looking shaky. House prices will correct all the way back to the average ratio of around 3x earnings through the double-wammy of a fall in prices and inflation. This will take a small number of years, then *hopefully* they will go up in value closer to the ratio, instead of ballooning out again.

Its happened before several times.

Of course buying quality property for the long term in growth areas is just as sound a strategy as it's always been, its only the speculators that are backing away

Back in the mid-90's I bought a couple of properties in Putney (1995 - the end of the property bust years). The second one I paid 156k, spent a load renovating it, sold it in 2000 for 275k, and today its supposedly worth around 500k. Sorry, London was a cool place to live, but lifestyle-wise theres no way I'd think about paying 500k for a 2-bed terrace.

There are better places in the world to live for cheaper

[DiscoStu]

The Land Registry figures in my area are neutral over the past 12 months. Prices are down in some areas such as Scotland, but in wealthier areas while people are keeping their jobs they will more or less hold. You may get flats very cheap but I don't see it happening on bigger properties. Most of my immediate neighbours have lived here 20 years and will have masses of equity so I don't think they'll be selling anyway unless something really dramatic happens.

Doesn't it take something like 4-6 months on average to buy a house? So you're looking at sales prices for offers from April/May before the doom began to accelerate...

[Cyberman]

It is a bit straw-clutchy isn't it? In other news, land registry and nationwide etc. say prices are going down. But here it's "a man said to me 3 weeks ago..."

Still, respect to the journo for bucking the trend.

The Land Registry figures in my area are neutral over the past 12 months. Prices are down in some areas such as Scotland, but in wealthier areas while people are keeping their jobs they will more or less hold. You may get flats very cheap but I don't see it happening on bigger properties. Most of my immediate neighbours have lived here 20 years and will have masses of equity so I don't think they'll be selling anyway unless something really dramatic happens.

[thunderlizard]

It is a bit straw-clutchy isn't it? In other news, land registry and nationwide etc. say prices are going down. But here it's "a man said to me 3 weeks ago..."

Still, respect to the journo for bucking the trend.

[BrilloPad]

You think?

Last time round there were 3 years - 1992 to 1995.

And I think the article is estate agents bullsh*t

[sasguru]

There are always people who call the bottom of the market early.

ISTM to be a stupid thing to try and do with houses, once the market does bottom out, it most certainly isn't going to go roaring back up the following week. There will be plenty of time to buy at the bottom.

tim

You think?

[tim123]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/mon...cle4916890.ece

Fill yer boots!

There are always people who call the bottom of the market early.

ISTM to be a stupid thing to try and do with houses, once the market does bottom out, it most certainly isn't going to go roaring back up the following week. There will be plenty of time to buy at the bottom.

tim

[Mailman_1]

Let's get this right..


The Banks are going bust or are in dire straights because they lent unsustainable amounts of debt to bad risks who invested in a housing bubble both here and in the US (mainly US)

The markets are falling because of that debacle

Joe pulblic is now looking to re-invest in that (still) over inflatated property bubble

Not Joe Public but investors and developers mainly and anyone with the full amount in cash or a big deposit so a mortgage can be processed in the 28 day window allowed for completion.

[Bob Dalek]

Hehe.... I suggested this may happen on another thread today. That was very quick confirmation that I am correct and Sascretin is wriong...... SMUG

SAS has been shown to be a classic example of a know-all who knows f--k all.