Reply to: people still dreaming about house prices

[Cyberman]

Forget about house prices until 2010. Until people can get mortgages they are meaningless.

[AlfredJPruffock]

The Pruffock Index confirms that Grey Slates remain Grey Slates.

Boomed.

[rootsnall]

Obstinately repeating the same point does not make it right.
Explain where anything I have said above is flawed.

Realistically the housing market is going to crash, but it is not crashing yet and the most likely cause of it crashing is stating that there is already a crash based on average sale values today.

I apologise for using the repeat method.

The Halifax figures show that average house price has fallen by 10% in the last 6 months, the other surveys including the LR ( once it catches up ) will show similar figures. It's a large sample and does reflect what is happening. 10% in 6 months looks like it is the start of a big correction in prices to me. How do you define a crash !?

The Halifax are a vested interest and if they could massage the figures to paint a rosier picture they would, the best they can do is say the rate of fall is now stabilising

[The Lone Gunman]

Refer back to the original post and irrational faith in the housing market !

Obstinately repeating the same point does not make it right.
Explain where anything I have said above is flawed.

Realistically the housing market is going to crash, but it is not crashing yet and the most likely cause of it crashing is stating that there is already a crash based on average sale values today.

[rootsnall]

Boomed!

Exactly !

[DimPrawn]

Refer back to the original post and irrational faith in the housing market !

Boomed!

[rootsnall]

But it isn't the truth.
Normally the housing market is a ladder cheap at the bottom and expensive at the top. People spend their lives climbing it. For (nearly) every step up there is a ripple effect upward. Newbie buys in at the bottom and every body above takes a step up. There is always a chain and that gives a reasonable average.
The current market is not like that it is individual sales for whatever reason. The average in this case is meaningless.

Refer back to the original post and irrational faith in the housing market !

[The Lone Gunman]

The ultimate figure given is meant to factor in what you are on about. Refer back to the original post and irrational faith in the housing market !

But it isn't the truth.
Normally the housing market is a ladder cheap at the bottom and expensive at the top. People spend their lives climbing it. For (nearly) every step up there is a ripple effect upward. Newbie buys in at the bottom and every body above takes a step up. There is always a chain and that gives a reasonable average.
The current market is not like that it is individual sales for whatever reason. The average in this case is meaningless.

[rootsnall]

No, that's what ordinary people do.

Ah, I see ! Top end prices in Swindon will NEVER fall.

ps. be patient !

[rootsnall]

Yes, but is still only an average price of the houses sold (as it has always been). Last year there were quite a few several hundred K houses selling so the average would be up.
If the only 3 houses sold last week were 2 up 2 downs in Barrow the average would be down to 30K.
The news is clearly telling us that very few houses are being sold and I am guessing they ar all in the 150K - 200K bracket.

The ultimate figure given is meant to factor in what you are on about. Refer back to the original post and irrational faith in the housing market !

[DimPrawn]

Do you not think they get less rich in a recession ?

No, that's what ordinary people do.

[rootsnall]

Why? Is there suddenly a shortage of rich people?

Do you not think they get less rich in a recession ?

[DimPrawn]

I'll bet you top end property will drop in line with the average ( probably more !?) when the crash has finished.

Why? Is there suddenly a shortage of rich people?

[The Lone Gunman]

It is also showing a 10.3% fall for the past 6 months

Yes, but is still only an average price of the houses sold (as it has always been). Last year there were quite a few several hundred K houses selling so the average would be up.
If the only 3 houses sold last week were 2 up 2 downs in Barrow the average would be down to 30K.
The news is clearly telling us that very few houses are being sold and I am guessing they ar all in the 150K - 200K bracket.

[rootsnall]

As I've said, the mean average is meaningless.

Yes city apartments and BTL tulip holes have dropped 50% in one year and this represents a big chunk of the transactions, but quailty top end property is not falling in price as the owners are wealthy and have no reason to cut the prices.

I'll bet you top end property will drop in line with the average ( probably more !?) when the crash has finished.