Reply to: Hurricane Karina - My Thoughts

[OwlHoot]

I think there is so much disinformation being spread by the media and morons like Moore that its possible we will never ever know the REAL truth (not the truth according to the media).

At the weekend a news item on New Orleans included an aerial shot of a large crowd of convicts from the local jail, under armed guard herded on a slip road.

I wonder what became of these - They haven't been mentioned since, AFAIK, and if their guards went AWOL and the prisoners went on the rampage, maybe that would explain some of the looting and why rescuers were initially reluctant to venture into the city.

[AlfredJPruffock]

[Mailman]

I think there is so much disinformation being spread by the media and morons like Moore that its possible we will never ever know the REAL truth (not the truth according to the media).

Now we are seeing the specticle of reporters being emotionally tied to the story...as soon as that happens the networks should be replacing them with reporters who have no ties to a story so that they can report on facts and not their own personal opinions.

But then again...facts never increase sales do they

Mailman

[wxman]

Interesting

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4216508.stm

[wxman]

I really question the wisdom of rebuilding New Orleans with out first rising the height of the city to be above sea level. I am still miffed somewhat that the New Orleans flooding as distracted away from the main effect of Hurricane Katrina . We still, some 9 days later, have not seen the effects on Grand Isle which suffered a full blown CAT4 hurricane at landfall. Indeed there have been zero reports from the delta which is very disturbing. The effects along the gulf shore show a secondary landfall at CAT3 intensity – and the results are shocking – I.E. total loss some 0.75 to 1.0 miles inland – and there a lot of home there right on the coast.

NSW – the global models that is the UKMO, GFS and the ETA (USA only) as well as the Hurricane forecast models. GDFL BAM and SHIPS all trended towards a delta landfall by the Friday Night – this was clear even to me sitting at home in Leicestershire, by Saturday the NHC refined there forecast to show this but it was not until Sunday that a Mandatory evac was issued – something went badly wrong.

However and overall – despite the clear indications of the Hurricane landfall – FEMA seemed paralysed and were unable to react – some thing that I have NEVER seen before – despite seeing first hand, being under a number of hurricanes my self.

[TwoWolves]

Makes interesting reading...

This is London Article

Something smells, and its not the water.

This makes odd reading too as it was reported on the TV news as looters getting what they deserved!

More news

[woo]

This has put New Orleans on the map. (albeit for the wrong sad reasons).

Most people didn't have a clue where it was until now. most probably still don't. I didn't, until I looked on maporama, the tv media will certinally never tell you (because they already know where it is, so, it doesn't occur to them to tell any of their viewers).

In 5 years time, New Orleans will be a top destination (simply because people will have heard of it and know where it is, a bit like boscastle).
New Orleans will rise again even stronger than before (I reckon , but ask zipzong because he always knows best).


just in case, anybody still doesn't know where it is.

http://www.maporama.com/share/Map.as...7&ZoomOut.y=11

[Not So Wise]

FEMA was cleared by the President before Sunday so that they could get moving without having to wait for the get go.

Mailman

Yes they got the get go, trucks full of supplys were dispached, then they were told on monday to halt. Why?

Red cross and other aid organisations were banned from N.O. Why?

Beyond the actual national guards for the states involved (not nearly enough), orders were not given by the president to activate other states national guards and to mobalize troops that were already in a holding pattern Why?

FEMA and other federal autoritys were hampering or totally blocking the rescue efforts of local autoritys and the coast guard. Why?

Federal Autoritys were turning around away aid from private volunteers (even specially trained medical teams with mobile hospitals) Why?

One of the heads of homeland security was still describing the situation at the superdome as "rumored" even though poor dirt famers could turn on the TV in the middle of africa and see live pictures of it. Why?

[AtW]

Does not look like FEMA could do much before the military moved in - I think FEMA can organise things, but it lacks resources like 100s of helicopters.

[Mailman]

FEMA was cleared by the President before Sunday so that they could get moving without having to wait for the get go.

Mailman

[Not So Wise]

Why was a mandatory evacuation not issued on Friday when all global and hurricane forecast models where showing a Mississippi Delta landfall.

Actually your facts are slightly wrong there. I always pay very close attention to hurricanes on the gulf coast as someone extreamly close to me lives there. And until about 24 hours before landfall nearly all forcasts were estimateing katrina would turn north by north east earlyer (as is the norm, thus bringing it in on the Alabama/Mississippi state line), N.O was always going to be hit somewhat but most estimates had it only getting the edges of the west side (for those that don't know, if you are are going to get any effects from a hurricane on the gulf coast that is the best part you can hope for, as east side is bigger, more drawn out and full of tornados)

Sure hindsight is a lovely 20/20, but in reality that entire coast gets hit multiple times a year, it's a long coast and hurricanes jump around alot. If they evacuated the entire landfall area as given by forcasts 3/4 days in advance they would be evacuating huge portions of 4 states multiple times a year, by second year of that you would find virtually everyone ignore evac orders due to "false alarms"

Why were resources not pre-staged inland ready to move as soon as the winds died down – this has always been the case with hurricanes that I have been in.

That is one of the many issues that are going to come out of this, but not for exact "problem" you mention. Why?

Because the resources were there and ready.

According to the head of the strategic military command for southern USA, his troops were in position from Monday, according to the FEMA drivers with supplys with water and rations,they were there by Monday also, but military could not deploy without clearance from the president, while the drivers with supplys were told to hold position in North Louisiana by FEMA

FACT! The disaster in New Orleans is separate to the effects of the hurricane along the Louisiana coastline. We are looking at two separate disasters here. The levees in N.O. were going to fail one day… weather by hurricane storm surge from Lake Pontchatrain, by an earth quake or just bad maintance..

Seperate but not, sure they could have fallen one day, nature will be always greater than man.

But in this case it was this hurricane that caused it, combined with the poor investment in the levee's to improve them.

If i remember correctly it was decided way back in the 1960's to upgrade those levee's, now 50 years later it was still no where near complete (and funny enough one of the 2 parts that gave way was an upgraded portion). N.O was "condemed" due the democratic system and it's built in lack of long term thinking, every administration kept hopeing that the levee's would not give way while they were in office, thus all kept on reducing funding for the levee's and letting the work slide. This is one of the few things that cannot be laid directly and entirely at the feet of Bush and his administration, though nor does he escape guilt as his administration was doing the exact same

There was no reason for people to remain in New Orleans, many have said that they survived Hurricane Camille in 1969 and would ride this out.

Sure some stayed there because they thought it would miss, some stayed because they thought they could make it but even more made it because they could not afford to get out or left it to late (last place you want to be in a hurricane is trapped on the freeway in your car).

Easy for government to tell everyone to get out, totally different thing for everyone to be in the position to get out with no decent public transport system, no car and no money.

It is near impossible to build levee’s that could survive a CAT 3 plus hurricane.

No it's not, what it is is expensive
Though a lot less expensive that what Katrina is going to cost.

My forecast for the overall death toll is not the 10,000 that is being put about. Along the LA and MS coastline – given that there was CAT5 storm surge then I would think around 250-500 (again it all depends on who got out)

For New Orleans NO ONE knows just yet – but it will not be in the 1000’s

My estimate is somewhere between 1000 and 1500 total death toll (all states including aftermath)


Personally the lead up to Katrina (all 50 years worth of it) is not that important (well actually it is more important than anything but no one will want to discuss it as it will force people to reevalute the whole democratic system) what is important is the aftermath and how it was handled. And the culprits there will be The president, FEMA and department of homeland security

And for me personally it's that last one that is probably most to blame, before FEMA was taken over by them, they generally always operated extreamly well, had fast response times and coordinated well with local autoritys and were not afraid to take offers of help from anyone, while now they block the red cross from entering affected areas, refuse to let trained medical personnel/groups to enter affected areas and tell them to go sign up to web sites, harrase the coast guard and put local police into situations where they feel they have to post guards on local parish (local council and police) emergency lines to stop FEMA and homeland security from cutting them again.

[The Late, Great JC]

If you're standing on the beach at the right time, you might notice one wave that's an inch or two higher than the rest. Be ready to jump back out of the way though, or you risk getting water in your shoe.

I don't have that problem with water... Ask Chico all about it...(Go on, I dare you...)

[OwlHoot]

What's the likely impact of what's left of Maria on the UK?

If you're standing on the beach at the right time, you might notice one wave that's an inch or two higher than the rest. Be ready to jump back out of the way though, or you risk getting water in your shoe.

[AtW]

Why was a mandatory evacuation not issued on Friday when all global and hurricane forecast models where showing a Mississippi Delta landfall.

They took their chances I think.

The main issue that happened was insufficiently fast rescue effort -- if they started in force on day 1 (Monday) then lots more of people would not have to die.

It is likely that more people died after actual hurricane gone than during it.

[The Late, Great JC]

Meanwhile - there are tropical devlopments East of Florida and the remanents of Hurricane Maria will cross near to the UK in about six days time.

What's the likely impact of what's left of Maria on the UK?