Reply to: Continued violence in Georgia

[BrilloPad]

Once one gets east of dover all civilisation ends.

[Diver]

Looting reignites Russia-Georgia tensions

[Pickle2]

Just heard bush give his little speech and say the US are sending a C19 full of "medicine and humanitarian aid" (read guns n ammo) to tblisi.

A test by the US I think - Lets see how serious the russians really are.

Odds of it being shot down by a stray sam?

[AlfredJPruffock]

The Georgian government? I wonder what the US would say if the Russians arrested the Georgian president on a charge of war crimes for ordering the indiscriminate firing of rockets at civilian targets. Oh, and you can't very well leave a country without a leader, so just pop one of those nice Russians in there as a "caretaker" president.

It would not be the Russians whom would arrest him -given that Georgia is a member of the International Criminal Court’s Rome Statute, which means that a prosecutor from the court can unilaterally investigate alleged abuses committed on Georgian territory – both by Georgians and Russians

( see extract below from FT online ...)


The Russians will press two arguments on South Ossetia.

The first is that the Georgians unilaterally violated the peacekeeping framework under the aegis of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, and can no longer be allowed a presence in the region.

The second is that there must be a tribunal for war crimes committed there.

Georgia is a party to the International Criminal Court’s Rome Statute, which means that a prosecutor from the court can unilaterally investigate alleged abuses committed on Georgian territory – both by Georgians and Russians.

The Russians are not party to the statute but have said they might file complaints.

Potentially, the court could prove an arena where the facts of this conflict are properly investigated – but only if both sides co-operate with an inquiry that might uncover evidence of terrible human rights abuses.

[Diver]

The Georgian government? I wonder what the US would say if the Russians arrested the Georgian president on a charge of war crimes for ordering the indiscriminate firing of rockets at civilian targets. Oh, and you can't very well leave a country without a leader, so just pop one of those nice Russians in there as a "caretaker" president.

Ossetians (they are Georgian after all )

[wobbegong]

They wont go into Tblisi, there is nothing in it for them. They dont want to control/annex georgia.

The Georgian government? I wonder what the US would say if the Russians arrested the Georgian president on a charge of war crimes for ordering the indiscriminate firing of rockets at civilian targets. Oh, and you can't very well leave a country without a leader, so just pop one of those nice Russians in there as a "caretaker" president.

[Pickle2]

The russians will not stop until they have met each of their objectives.
And what are they?

They will want any peace deal to include a signed commitment from georgia never to use force again in the disputed regions. This will basically give the regions full defacto independence.

They will want to ensure that georgia will be in no position to join nato, ever. For this they need to keep georgia in some kind of limbo state, where by it is in constant dispute over its lost territory, and with a severly weakened militaray. They will never gain nato membership under such circumstances.

I would also say a change of government in tblisi would suit the russians nicely.

[Bob Dalek]

They have done nothing of the sort yet. There will be a strong russian presence in the area for a while yet. The US have zero leverage, and both sides know it. The russians will not stop until they have met each of their objectives. The georgians gambled, lost, and will now pay badly for it.

The US have zero leverage, and both sides know it.
Not too sure about that - I suspect that the "inaction" is just to keep the peace.

The russians will not stop until they have met each of their objectives.
And what are they?

The georgians gambled, lost, and will now pay badly for it
Absolutely!

[Pickle2]

Well as mentioned here it is starting to look like more of an invasion of Georgia. My question is, once the Russians reach Tblisi, what are they going to do?

They wont go into Tblisi, there is nothing in it for them. They dont want to control/annex georgia.

[Pickle2]

That the Ruskies packed-up and went home (sort of) means, I suspect, that they took heed of something said to them by us (and, more importantly, the Yanks). It's a bit out of character of them to up-stumps like they did.

They have done nothing of the sort yet. There will be a strong russian presence in the area for a while yet. The US have zero leverage, and both sides know it. The russians will not stop until they have met each of their objectives. The georgians gambled, lost, and will now pay badly for it.

[Bob Dalek]

Seems they had a change of heart.

My posting seems to have been a pile of old cobblers! Apologies all round! Nicky G, care to share your food stockpile?!

[sunnysan]

Invasion

Well as mentioned here it is starting to look like more of an invasion of Georgia. My question is, once the Russians reach Tblisi, what are they going to do?

[wobbegong]

That the Ruskies packed-up and went home (sort of) means, I suspect, that they took heed of something said to them by us (and, more importantly, the Yanks). It's a bit out of character of them to up-stumps like they did.

Seems they had a change of heart.

[Advocate]

We'd have to bomb Bradford for starters.

Will there be any noticeable difference?

[Bob Dalek]

That the Ruskies packed-up and went home (sort of) means, I suspect, that they took heed of something said to them by us (and, more importantly, the Yanks). It's a bit out of character of them to up-stumps like they did.