Reply to: Inflation to worsen ...

[rootsnall]

mortgage payments and house price inflation are seperate - we could debate the link. but one thing - debt is reeality - price is vanity. if people invest in houses instead of stock market - prices will rise. until people buy who need a mortgage. this is getting complicated - my head hurts - where is atw with the right answer?

mortgage payments partly reflect interest rate (BP in state the obvious mode) so if you raise interest rates to target inflation by raising interest rates, RPI inflation goes up. Hence circular.

So I would like a BPPI - CPI plus house prices. Better still - CPI plus 3* average earnings(which is where house prices should be?).

I need a lie down now.....

I don't think you are the right man to write Economics for Dummies.

If they had used RPI with a target of 2.5% it would of meant higher interest rates and lower house prices.

[BrilloPad]

We did use the RPI ( including mortgage payments and hence reflects house price inflation ) and the target was 2.5%. They switched to CPI ( no mortgage payments and other things excluded ) and a target of 2%. With the old RPI measure interest rates would have been consistently higher over te past few years. And yes the obvious El Gordo trick will now be to switch back to the RPI measure as it starts falling ( or not looking as bad as the CPI figure ).

mortgage payments and house price inflation are seperate - we could debate the link. but one thing - debt is reeality - price is vanity. if people invest in houses instead of stock market - prices will rise. until people buy who need a mortgage. this is getting complicated - my head hurts - where is atw with the right answer?

mortgage payments partly reflect interest rate (BP in state the obvious mode) so if you raise interest rates to target inflation by raising interest rates, RPI inflation goes up. Hence circular.

So I would like a BPPI - CPI plus house prices. Better still - CPI plus 3* average earnings(which is where house prices should be?).

I need a lie down now.....

[rootsnall]

I have often thought that. It might have worked if done in 1997. I would hate to add in house price inflation from current high levels - but with a snake like El Gordo who can tell...

We did use the RPI ( including mortgage payments and hence reflects house price inflation ) and the target was 2.5%. They switched to CPI ( no mortgage payments and other things excluded ) and a target of 2%. With the old RPI measure interest rates would have been consistently higher over te past few years. And yes the obvious El Gordo trick will now be to switch back to the RPI measure as it starts falling ( or not looking as bad as the CPI figure ).

[BrilloPad]

What if house prices were incorporated in the official inflation index calculation? If this should become too negative, he could always add in some inflationary items to compensate, such as council taxes and food?

I have often thought that. It might have worked if done in 1997. I would hate to add in house price inflation from current high levels - but with a snake like El Gordo who can tell...

[DiscoStu]

Like a stopped clock, he is right some of the time

Yes, ignoring seconds, one time in 720.

[TimberWolf]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7400074.stm

So there we are. If the BofE is to try to keep a lid on inflation, interest rates will have to RISE in a recession. Clearly a recipe for changing recession into depression
So which will it be: Depression or huge inflation?

What if house prices were incorporated in the official inflation index calculation? If this should become too negative, he could always add in some inflationary items to compensate, such as council taxes and food?

[BrilloPad]

Sorry Brillo, just like to stop you there... BoE is not independent despite what the pernicious cyclops is proclaiming:

Brown approves the appointment of its Governor, and he approves the appointment of members of the rate setting committee. He has always controlled the interest rate level by using a totally unrepresentative inflation measure, the CPI. This kept rates low, because the BOE sets interest rates based on this artificially low level of inflation.

Far from making the Bank more independent, Brown presided over a major reduction in the Bank's powers and activities, shifting much of its important work supervising and monitoring banks to the Financial Services Authority. He decided to sell large quantities of our gold reserves at a very low price against the bank advice, showing that it is no longer in charge of our foreign exchange reserves.

The Monetary Policy Committee members are all chosen by the Chancellor or by the Governor of the Bank of England, who in turn is chosen by the Prime Minister on the advice of the Chancellor.

Liebour myth: #428 - "Bank of England Independence"

I accept the points about BoE APART from rate setting. i.e. I agree about FSA and gold. In my original post I should have made clear I meant rate setting(I thought it was tacit based on the question). I also agree they are targeting the wrong inflation measure.

Brown appoints the Governor and the members - but the Governer just has a second(and probably final) term. How many members have beem sacked? Brown would like lower rates now - and is no doubt unhappy that rates are still "too high". Maybe there will be a sacking soon? Or the offering of gongs?

To a certain extent - what is independent these days? Look at cash for honours. Anything can be bought - there is no such thing as independence. Except the plebs that is.

[BrilloPad]

WHS.

We are going to find out just how "independent" the bank really is.

I predict a sustained period where inflation is greater than three per cent, but the Governor will keep writing his letters to the Prime Minister explaining that although inflation is above his maximum target, he is loath to raise rates for fear of causing a recession/making the recession worse.

I think he is more likely to say "to stop inflation undershooting by too much in a year"

[Gonzo]

Sorry Brillo, just like to stop you there... BoE is not independent despite what the pernicious cyclops is proclaiming:

Brown approves the appointment of its Governor, and he approves the appointment of members of the rate setting committee. He has always controlled the interest rate level by using a totally unrepresentative inflation measure, the CPI. This kept rates low, because the BOE sets interest rates based on this artificially low level of inflation.

Far from making the Bank more independent, Brown presided over a major reduction in the Bank's powers and activities, shifting much of its important work supervising and monitoring banks to the Financial Services Authority. He decided to sell large quantities of our gold reserves at a very low price against the bank advice, showing that it is no longer in charge of our foreign exchange reserves.

The Monetary Policy Committee members are all chosen by the Chancellor or by the Governor of the Bank of England, who in turn is chosen by the Prime Minister on the advice of the Chancellor.

Liebour myth: #428 - "Bank of England Independence"

WHS.

We are going to find out just how "independent" the bank really is.

I predict a sustained period where inflation is greater than three per cent, but the Governor will keep writing his letters to the Prime Minister explaining that although inflation is above his maximum target, he is loath to raise rates for fear of causing a recession/making the recession worse.

[hyperD]

Since the BoE is independent

Sorry Brillo, just like to stop you there... BoE is not independent despite what the pernicious cyclops is proclaiming:

Brown approves the appointment of its Governor, and he approves the appointment of members of the rate setting committee. He has always controlled the interest rate level by using a totally unrepresentative inflation measure, the CPI. This kept rates low, because the BOE sets interest rates based on this artificially low level of inflation.

Far from making the Bank more independent, Brown presided over a major reduction in the Bank's powers and activities, shifting much of its important work supervising and monitoring banks to the Financial Services Authority. He decided to sell large quantities of our gold reserves at a very low price against the bank advice, showing that it is no longer in charge of our foreign exchange reserves.

The Monetary Policy Committee members are all chosen by the Chancellor or by the Governor of the Bank of England, who in turn is chosen by the Prime Minister on the advice of the Chancellor.

Liebour myth: #428 - "Bank of England Independence"

[BrilloPad]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7400074.stm

So there we are. If the BofE is to try to keep a lid on inflation, interest rates will have to RISE in a recession. Clearly a recipe for changing recession into depression
So which will it be: Depression or huge inflation?

Since the BoE is independent - inflation not allowed. So depression it is.

In the old days interest rates wouls be slashed at this point and f**k inflation.

[HairyArsedBloke]

Inflation does wonders to house prices.

It brings down their value without lowering their price...

(if that makes any sense)

Sort of ...

for the same amount of money that once would buy a mansion, I can buy a hovel.

[swamp]

Inflation does wonders to house prices.

It brings down their value without lowering their price...

(if that makes any sense)

[Bagpuss]

You don't half sound like AtW.

Like a stopped clock, he is right some of the time

[DodgyAgent]

You don't half sound like AtW.

As in "half wit"?