Reply to: Dropping like a stone - GBP

[tay]

Yeah I got 1 word incorrect.. but thanks for the lecture.

[aussielong]

transferring large amount of cash

I think so, I am no money market genius, but the weak NZ dollar is killing our exporters, the high interest rates are killing house owners.. so the economy is in for a major rough time in NZ, so I dont think its a huge risk to assume our exchange rate wont stay strong for more than a year or so.
.

3:1 - $3 kiwi buys 1 GBP
2.5:1 - $2.5 kiwi buys 1 GBP

less Kiwi than before required to buy 1 GBP

Kiwi is strengthening, not weakening, against the pound

this is because Kiwi interest rates are high compared to
UK, and people are investing, creating demand for Kiwi currency,
driving up the price and making it stronger

conversely, 1 GBP buys 2.5 kiwi, when it used to buy 3 kiwi.
Kiwi exporters will be doing worse because foreign (UK) buyers
will be finding it harder to buy Kiwi currency

anyway, if you have a large amount of cash to transfer use
HiFX. You can name your rate. I used them about a year ago
and it was very easy. You talk to a dealer, lock in a rate and then
they transfer the money at that rate, commission is not high
either - anybody else used these guys?

[TrickyDicky]

Thanks - I'm not much good with money - leave that to my accountant.

[tay]

Yes

[TrickyDicky]

Is it good if you contract abroad and are paid in Euros but live in the UK?

[tay]

Bad for imports.

[Alf W]

Cheap holidays in the States.

Good news for UK exports to Euro land..

How is this bad news?

Who cares if vile cheese, horsemeat, dodgy Euro-fashions and tasteless Spanish tomatoes are more expensive?

[tay]

This is the one I follow

http://www.nationalbank.co.nz/econom...ge/nzdgbp.aspx

[NoddY]

If your selling your labour for Sterling, this graph ought to be alarming:

http://www.ecb.int/stats/exchange/eu...ph-gbp.en.html

I expect further abuse of the money supply by the Bank of England during 2008.

[tay]

If interest rates went down in NZ why would that bring house prices down in its wake ?

No what I wa meaning is that once the high interest rates hit, house prices will dip or stall... infaltionary pressure will ease and interest rates can come down.

Tay, I'd hang fire, no reason you can't leave your wad over here, sterling may well weaken further but surely the 9% interest rates in NZ won't last forever.

Agreed, 18 months is a long time in the financial world, will wait and see.

blimey Tay, isn't that a little hit and hope ?

You really think next year things will go back to normal ?

I think so, I am no money market genius, but the weak NZ dollar is killing our exporters, the high interest rates are killing house owners.. so the economy is in for a major rough time in NZ, so I dont think its a huge risk to assume our exchange rate wont stay strong for more than a year or so.
Its not like I am playing the market based on a theory that it will hit an extreme level, the xchange rate moves between '2.5:1' to '4:1'.. with '3:1' being the 'norm' ... I am just betting on it hitting that rate again in the next year or so. I am not a currency market player by choice... so I dont presume to think I can beat it.

[milanbenes]

'We are just going to wait and hope that in the next year things go back to normal. Its a bit of a risk'


blimey Tay, isn't that a little hit and hope ?

You really think next year things will go back to normal ?

Milan.

[rootsnall]

If interest rates went down in NZ why would that bring house prices down in its wake ?

It's the other way round, if house prices start coming down they won't need 9% interest rates to try to stop things overheating.

Tay, I'd hang fire, no reason you can't leave your wad over here, sterling may well weaken further but surely the 9% interest rates in NZ won't last forever.

[AlfredJPruffock]

We are paying 10.5% on our mortgage in NZ. Thats not the issue, our rents still cover that. The issue is the wedge of cash we want to send home. Over time NZD/GBP has been averaged arund the 3 :1 mark.. now it is at the 2.5 :1 mark.

We are just going to wait and hope that in the next year things go back to normal. Its a bit of a risk, but its a risk either way.

The NZ economy isnt looking great either, just that at the moment monied people are loving our interest rate (as you would), but once that starts going down with house prices... the xchange rate 'might' unwind quickly.... but its a time thing I guess.

If interest rates went down in NZ why would that bring house prices down in its wake ?

In essence any currencies which have strong links to the Greenback are in danger of a sharp correction /markdown - perhaps the UKs best escape would be to join the Euro - whom would argue against that now ?

[tay]

Tay - you need to get your money out of here before it becomes worthless. Interest rates in NZ are about 9% anyway aren't they?

We are paying 10.5% on our mortgage in NZ. Thats not the issue, our rents still cover that. The issue is the wedge of cash we want to send home. Over time NZD/GBP has been averaged arund the 3 :1 mark.. now it is at the 2.5 :1 mark.

We are just going to wait and hope that in the next year things go back to normal. Its a bit of a risk, but its a risk either way.

The NZ economy isnt looking great either, just that at the moment monied people are loving our interest rate (as you would), but once that starts going down with house prices... the xchange rate 'might' unwind quickly.... but its a time thing I guess.

[beaker]

All my assets are in AUD - up about 10% this year against the pound. Daily rate is worth less though, although I'm working on it.

Tay - you need to get your money out of here before it becomes worthless. Interest rates in NZ are about 9% anyway aren't they?