Reply to: Germany conducting more than 50,000 coronavirus tests a day

[AtW]

“ Public health officials in charge of defending the country from a major pandemic never drew up plans for mass community testing despite warnings from the World Health Organization, The Telegraph can disclose.

Emergency planners "did not discuss" the need for community testing because they wrongly believed a new strain of influenza would be the next outbreak to strike the UK, a senior Government adviser revealed.

Instead, ministers, along with officials from Public Health England, the Cabinet Office and the Department of Health, decided against planning for mass testing despite an official warning from the WHO that it would slow the spread of disease.”

Exclusive: The systematic failures in the Government's pandemic strategy laid bare

Criminal dereliction of duty that resulted in many fatalities

[AtW]

The problem is that in UK hospitals you catch infections.

People have caught Covid-19 by being in a ward with someone who was later found to be infected.

Again lack of testing made this so much worse, and lack of PPE

It’s just crazy what’s happening, and it is about to get much worse

[scooterscot]

In the aftermath Germany is likely to be very hard hit economically. As the major exporter in Europe it needs it's major export markets to be open for business. Germany can't go back to work until the rest of Europe goes back to work.

True - but you'll notice something odd, the UK's smaller population has more claimants for unemployment in the past week than Germany currently, I think it's because of Kurzarbeit. Might also be something to do with more people in the UK working in the hospitality sectors.

[scooterscot]

Either way Germany is not in deep tulip like we are here, so whatever they did that they are doing a lot better than in this country.

Before the lockdown here in Germany many were self isolating, reducing social contact. I recall a number amongst my fraternity gasping in horror watching the beeb showing us how busy the streets in the UK remained, the pictures of folks rammed on the tube... just disbelief.

[SueEllen]

Did I say that I've got a medical degree?

Is it unreasonable to suggest that early care might improve chances of survival?

Large scale testing and tracing can certainly limit damage to older population by catching younger potentially exposed to virus, in Germany they certainly did a lot of that just like in South Korea.

Either way Germany is not in deep tulip like we are here, so whatever they did that they are doing a lot better than in this country.

The problem is that in UK hospitals you catch infections.

People have caught Covid-19 by being in a ward with someone who was later found to be infected.

[tomtomagain]

Did I say that I've got a medical degree?

No you didn't. But you did imply heavily that it was because people in the UK were not being admitted to hospital quickly enough, when you actually have no real understanding of what the best practise is when it comes to treating a COVID-19 patient.

Is it unreasonable to suggest that early care might improve chances of survival?

Yes it is. The UK ( and France, with another very high death rate ) have not exceeded their ICU capacity. So the idea that patients only die if they don't get to a ICU bed is patently false. People are dying in hospital. They are not dying because they cannot get into hospital and everyone who's in hospital coming out alive.

Large scale testing and tracing can certainly limit damage to older population by catching younger potentially exposed to virus, in Germany they certainly did a lot of that just like in South Korea.

Agree.

Either way Germany is not in deep tulip like we are here, so whatever they did that they are doing a lot better than in this country.

They are up to their knees, we are up to our waist. The Italians and Spanish are up to their necks. How far everyone sinks is still a TBC. But hey, guess what? It's not a competition.

In the aftermath Germany is likely to be very hard hit economically. As the major exporter in Europe it needs it's major export markets to be open for business. Germany can't go back to work until the rest of Europe goes back to work.

[AtW]

Maybe. Who knows? Where did you do you medical degree?

Did I say that I've got a medical degree?

Is it unreasonable to suggest that early care might improve chances of survival?

Large scale testing and tracing can certainly limit damage to older population by catching younger potentially exposed to virus, in Germany they certainly did a lot of that just like in South Korea.

Either way Germany is not in deep tulip like we are here, so whatever they did that they are doing a lot better than in this country.

[tomtomagain]

Maybe, just maybe, IF one only admits people to hospital at the point when they can't breath, then not much can be done about it.

Maybe, just maybe, early diagnosis and care help improve chances of survival.

Maybe. Who knows? Where did you do you medical degree?

[AtW]

However, there's plenty of people dying and it's not because of a lack of ventilators in the UK. The UK is not at the capacity of it's ventilators.

Maybe, just maybe, IF one only admits people to hospital at the point when they can't breath, then not much can be done about it.

Maybe, just maybe, early diagnosis and care help improve chances of survival.

[GhostofTarbera]

Hancock just promised 100K per day by end of April

Holding post for 25K


Sent from my iPhone using Contractor UK Forum

[tomtomagain]

Nope although Germany have increased their ICU beds to 40,000 now and 3 out of 4 have ventilators....

Good for them.

However, there's plenty of people dying and it's not because of a lack of ventilators in the UK. The UK is not at the capacity of it's ventilators.

[darmstadt]

Yup. There are no winners in this one I'm afraid.

Nope although Germany have increased their ICU beds to 40,000 now and 3 out of 4 have ventilators....

[tomtomagain]

I'd love to know the secret about Germany's mortality rate - whether its because their figure reporting is not just hospital admissions or people displaying symptons , or what. But 944 deaths to 78k cases is a very good result.

I suspect I've answered my own question because we are only counting those ill enough to get into a hospital and you have to be quite ill to get in.

If you test a large number of minor cases, then you'll have a lower death rate.

Also, I read somewhere that the average age of a German infected is 46, against 64 in Italy and 63 in the UK.

The UK, Italian & French figures don't include people who died at home or in a care-home, don't know if the German figures include non-hospital deaths.

You won't know the real death rate in any country ( and never in China ) until this is all done and they've had chance to go through all the numbers.

[tomtomagain]

I suspect that Germany is going to hit a bad patch soon with this virus, figures are climbing now that it's starting to hit care homes and the elderly more than previously.

Yup. There are no winners in this one I'm afraid.

[AtW]

I'd love to know the secret about Germany's mortality rate - whether its because their figure reporting is not just hospital admissions or people displaying symptons , or what. But 944 deaths to 78k cases is a very good result.

I suspect I've answered my own question because we are only counting those ill enough to get into a hospital and you have to be quite ill to get in.

Mortality rate is higher if you only got small testing capacity used only on those who get really sick.

But also Germany just seems more prepared - chance are not making patients till they get really sick would save more of them.