Reply to: Trading strategy for 24th

[diseasex]

GBPUSD Trading strategy for 24th:

• Close charts
• Shut down PC
• Go to pub
• Occasionally check in from mobile in pub over a nice cold pint to see retail traders getting whipsawed

When a poll of only 800 participants can move Cable, it's not a good time to get involved.

Not if you are dirty spekulant

[jamesbrown]

GBPUSD Trading strategy for 24th:

• Close charts
• Shut down PC
• Go to pub
• Occasionally check in from mobile in pub over a nice cold pint to see retail traders getting whipsawed

When a poll of only 800 participants can move Cable, it's not a good time to get involved.

Amen.

[SantaClaus]

USD/GBP: 1.40773



This Brexit thing is making me wealthy by the minute...

It's GBPUSD

Earlier ran the stops above 1.4219 - hope they weren't yours

[SantaClaus]

GBPUSD Trading strategy for 24th:

• Close charts
• Shut down PC
• Go to pub
• Occasionally check in from mobile in pub over a nice cold pint to see retail traders getting whipsawed

When a poll of only 800 participants can move Cable, it's not a good time to get involved.

[AtW]

USD/GBP: 1.40773



This Brexit thing is making me wealthy by the minute...

[diseasex]

Good more for me

Thumbs up for repo wave

[unemployed]

So that might get a lot of hot money in, and then they will leave as soon as rates go down, in the meantime people who got used to paying 2% mortgage will have to pay 7% - should be enough to bankrupt a few millions pretty quickly.

Good more for me

[AtW]

They will confiscate all wealth in UK held by dodgy Russians. This will be used to support pound.

HTH BIDI

I wish...

[AtW]

Bring it on love to see 5%again

So that might get a lot of hot money in, and then they will leave as soon as rates go down, in the meantime people who got used to paying 2% mortgage will have to pay 7% - should be enough to bankrupt a few millions pretty quickly.

[DimPrawn]

Exactly how they are going to do it? They got very little EUR/USD to sell to support pound, Soros would love them to try it.

Big increase in interest rates would probably makes things worse.

They will confiscate all wealth in UK held by dodgy Russians. This will be used to support pound.

HTH BIDI

[unemployed]

Big increase in interest rates would probably makes things worse.

Bring it on love to see 5%again

[AtW]

The BoE would not try to influence the ultimate market level of sterling once the dust settles after a vote for Brexit, but could seek to prevent the sort of damaging gyrations seen in the half hour after the removal of the floor on the franc, the sources said.

Exactly how they are going to do it? They got very little EUR/USD to sell to support pound, Soros would love them to try it.

Big increase in interest rates would probably makes things worse.

[jamesbrown]

cap on the Swiss franc rate

Yup, prime example. Extreme caution is needed with currency trades even in routinely volatile conditions (e.g. Fed rate decision), let alone a once in a generation decision like this. Tremendous scope to get burned.

[jamesbrown]

Just watch out for major moves on 23rd before the result is known because many banks and funds will be commissioning their own polls (it's interesting that the last public ICM poll was this week). As diseasex notes, it's easy to get played, especially in currency markets, and I would expect some bigs swings during 23rd, which could be false dawns or inside info. On the 24th, once the results is known, you'll already have lost much of the upside or downside because it will be immediate, and these things tend to overshoot, so you could quite easily have a reversal on your hands, panic, and then find it moving back in your favour. FWIW, I've already taken my punts, as I'd prefer to make a call now than respond to events in an extremely volatile market. Finally, it's worth noting that there may be various political events/uncertainties that create further volatility even once the result is known, including a Remain result (e.g. does the current Gov't survive and in what form?).

[diseasex]

Intervention with what?

BOEs foreign currency reserves (nevermind shiny gold) are very limited.

They already expressed desire to see GBP go down 10%, I doubt they would even increase interest rates substantially.

Be prepared to stabilise pound on Brexit, top FX players advise BoE | Reuters

The sudden lifting of a cap on the Swiss franc rate against the euro in January 2015 saw trading seize up, prices evaporate and the currency's value balloon by 40 percent in minutes, leaving a trail of losses and bankruptcies.

The BoE would not try to influence the ultimate market level of sterling once the dust settles after a vote for Brexit, but could seek to prevent the sort of damaging gyrations seen in the half hour after the removal of the floor on the franc, the sources said.

"The Bank is considering what it should be doing on the day and intervention is naturally one of the options," said a senior official at one of the industry's biggest brokerages, asking not to be named.

"Of course they will not say publicly what their conclusion is, but I am sure they are considering how they would intervene on the day if need be."