Capital flight out of UK as Brexit woes deepen

[scooterscot]

The newspapers are not printing for jest. Some cash has obviously left the UK because of perceived risk. And it's not the normal betting. This is capital flight in progress.

Just look at Greece to see what the outcome will be. Expensive everything and everyone broke. Prepare yourself.

[darmstadt]

Sky News makes the BBC look good.


Capital is not fleeing Britain because of Brexit - FT.com

"...the evidence to date for rampant capital flight from Britain or its banks is feeble. .... the apparently large flows mostly reflected the clients of British banks taking out insurance against a large drop in sterling....

There was no overall drop in deposits in UK banks in March, but a £10bn rise. If capital was fleeing the UK, we would see the opposite, as we did in Greece last year. People appear to be happy with money in British banks, but don’t necessarily want as much exposure to sterling at a volatile time.".

So who are we to believe: Billions of pounds taken out of the British economy amid fears of Brexit | UK Politics | News | The Independent

[LondonManc]

Smart, rich people with lots of assets hedging their bets.
Wow, there could almost be an industry created to manage that. Oh, wait...

[darmstadt]

Lets call the whole thing off....

[Flashman]

Sky News makes the BBC look good.


Capital is not fleeing Britain because of Brexit - FT.com

"...the evidence to date for rampant capital flight from Britain or its banks is feeble. .... the apparently large flows mostly reflected the clients of British banks taking out insurance against a large drop in sterling....

There was no overall drop in deposits in UK banks in March, but a £10bn rise. If capital was fleeing the UK, we would see the opposite, as we did in Greece last year. People appear to be happy with money in British banks, but don’t necessarily want as much exposure to sterling at a volatile time.".

[DimPrawn]

Alright alright calm down you lot. Someone suggest money is flying out of the country and it's brown trousers time. Just a taster of what will happen mind you.

Better stock up on loo roll.

Already have mate.

[scooterscot]

Alright alright calm down you lot. Someone suggest money is flying out of the country and it's brown trousers time. Just a taster of what will happen mind you.

Better stock up on loo roll.

[MrMarkyMark]

Says it all

Q: So does this mean money is leaving the country?

A: Not necessarily - after all, the City of London is an international financial centre: you can very easily shift your money into what are effectively foreign investments, denominated in other currencies, without it leaving the Square Mile.

[bobspud]

And this is why we are going to end up with an exit regardless of it being right or otherwise...

[DimPrawn]

Total non story.

[bobspud]

The article actually says it isn't leaving the City. It's being invested differently.

Now if lots of foreigners were selling their properties and prices were dropping then I would be excited. But they're not.

^

This

[GB9]

Looks like the smart money is pulling out of the city by the billions, 65 of them March and April alone.



Is Money Leaving The UK Due To Brexit Fears?

The article actually says it isn't leaving the City. It's being invested differently.

Now if lots of foreigners were selling their properties and prices were dropping then I would be excited. But they're not.

[scooterscot]

Looks like the smart money is pulling out of the city by the billions, 65 of them March and April alone.



Is Money Leaving The UK Due To Brexit Fears?

Is Money Leaving The UK Due To Brexit Fears?

Sample polymer five and ten GB pound banknotes are displayed at the Bank of England in London
As the Chancellor warns that investors have shifted billions of pounds out of British assets ahead of the In/Out EU referendum, here are the main points to consider:

Q: I keep hearing all this stuff about capital flight and money leaving the country. Sounds terrifying. What's actually happening here?

A: In the first two months of the EU referendum campaign (March and April), some £65bn was pulled out of UK sterling assets - in other words everything denominated in pounds, from cash to housing to equities.

It was the biggest two-month outflow since 2009 - the height of the post-crisis turmoil in the UK.

At its peak in March, the outflow equated to £1.3m every minute.

Piles Of Money Generic Pounds Sterling

Video: £65bn Asset Exodus Before EU Vote
Q: So does this mean money is leaving the country?

A: Not necessarily - after all, the City of London is an international financial centre: you can very easily shift your money into what are effectively foreign investments, denominated in other currencies, without it leaving the Square Mile.

That seems to be what has happened here.

It is not traditional Greece-style capital flight (let's get the hell out of this country), but is another type of flight - from sterling assets (let's get the hell out of this currency).

Q: So what? Why should I care?

A: Because this is one of the first pieces of statistical evidence that worries about the EU referendum are causing investors to take drastic action to protect themselves in the event of a Brexit.

So far, the vast majority of numbers that have been bandied around have been forecasts, guesses, stabs in the dark about what might happen in the event of a departure.

These are figures showing something that has actually happened.

Q: I heard someone say this was just "hedging". Doesn't sound very interesting.

A: Hedging is just another word for taking emergency insurance because you're worried about something - be it a lurch in share prices or, in this case, lurches in sterling.

But this is not just normal hedging.

In the past six months there were £77bn of flows out of sterling.

In the previous months the outflows were £2bn.

Q: But aren't these numbers very volatile?

A: Yes, very much so. Which is why it is best to look at cumulative totals over a period of months, as above.

But whether you take the rolling six month or 12 month totals, outflows from sterling assets are at the highest level since fears over a double dip recession in the UK three years ago, and not far off their 2009 peaks.

And that March figure alone was the second biggest in history.

Q: Isn't it just a blip?

A: Well if it is, it is the second biggest "blip" in history.

However, it is true that the investors who shifted the money out of sterling assets could very easily shift them back in.

Nor is it a given we get full-scale economic chaos in the event of a leave vote.

It might be that investors are getting their hedging wrong.

Indeed, the pound recovered quite quickly after some big drops in the opening weeks of the campaign.

Q: Isn't this just propaganda fed to you by the Stronger In campaign?

A: No. We dug these numbers up ourselves following a deep dive into the Bank of England's statistical database.

The Remain camp learnt of them in the same way as the Leave camp - when we contacted them to tell them we were running the story, and explained our findings.