Reply to: Under 45? Oh dear!

[PurpleGorilla]

Young people are like everyone else. Some nice some a-holes

Yawn

[PurpleGorilla]

When you say you found it, do you mean that you found that link in my previous post, or didn't you bother with that?

I can't remember!

[MrMarkyMark]

FTFY

Young white British men are one of the most derided groups worldwide

[LucidDementia]

G]Young white British men are most derided group in UK

This is hardly news.

[MrMarkyMark]

I've been doing this all day at work to impress the ladies, so far, no success.

[SueEllen]

Young people are like everyone else. Some nice some a-holes

[DimPrawn]

Getting drunk frequently and having many sexual partners is a negative thing?

I've been doing this all day at work to impress the ladies, so far, no success.

[barrydidit]

Getting drunk frequently and having many sexual partners is a negative thing?

[darmstadt]

Glad I'm not under 45 Young white British men are most derided group in UK, survey says | Home News | News | The Independent

[expat]

I can't find any descent stats... Just found this...

http://dera.ioe.ac.uk/22821/1/SN01877.pdf

When you say you found it, do you mean that you found that link in my previous post, or didn't you bother with that?

[Zero Liability]

Yeah, well for the time being there's plenty of bulls(hitters.)

You hearing the stories about hedge funds collapsing state side. I don't know, maybe we are a bit closer to the fall. God only knows!

I think the central banks have very limited leeway at this point, as they have all exhaused themselves from round upon round of QE (there are limits to this and it can risk sapping liquidity from corporate and sovereign debt markets, ironically) and ultra-low rates, but would not be surprised if there were another 2 years into this. The US has the luxury of "exporting" the effects of its currency management into emerging markets, so it has been able to sustain its current monetary policy for longer than most other countries could ever dream to do so.

"Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions! And its mistakes were beauties." - Samuelson. The next recession is coming, but no one has a clue when it will happen. I suspect the next year or so is going to be a protracted sideways move with considerable volatility (interest rate cycle, election year, nervousness about global demand etc.). The thing with crashes that foretell recessions is that they're rarely telegraphed with accuracy, i.e. there's typically a black swan. It's easy to point to any number of potential triggers over the years the didn't materialise.

The global economy is a complete dog at the moment, and there are some serious imbalances in asset prices (particularly housing) that will need to be addressed in the long run. This isn't a UK-specific issue and it isn't primarily about immigration or any other local conditions, although they've certainly exaggerated the trends here. It's being repeated in other countries with different local contexts. It's amazing how long the plates can keep spinning though, absent a black swan. The search for yield is a worry, but totally predictable under ZIRP/QE. Investors are mostly short-term idiots. The funds that are going under now are the riskiest of a risky bunch of funds, so I wouldn't overstate that particular risk.

Yup, plus the ultra low rates are stimulating very unhealthy, volatile economic activity, which is encouraging corporations to spend more time and resources on financial engineering, than providing a good product, whilst carrying razor-thin levels of cash. All this is predicated on very low rates.

I've been paying attention.

I'm of a mind you may see Russia and China go back to the gold standard; they're sure as hell stocking up on it and Russia have a shedload of Yuan. If they do it'll be a very swift hard fall for the dollar.

I hope they wait a while as I don't have quite enough silver yet.

I think the problem is that, whilst China talks a very big game, its economic policy is very heavy-handed and amateurish, and has proven extremely costly, e.g. in terms of bleeding foreign reserves. It's also very vulnerable to shocks in the US market, and there is little its central planners can do to change that. They're flooding their internal markets with liquidity and, as an economy already laden with unproductive bubbles, they're only going to weaken its fundamentals further; they engage in all forms of financial chicanery to keep their government's debts hidden, e.g. offloading them onto nominally "private" corporations, a trick they no doubt learnt from the US. Also, the addition of the Yuan to the basket of 'reserve' currencies has the stench of the IMF trying to ensure that they're subdued and know their place. Russia and China both have potential, but at the moment the latter seems almost like a parody of neo-Keynesianism.

[BrilloPad]

The next recession is coming, but no one has a clue when it will happen.

When the last bear turns to a bull.

HTH

[jamesbrown]

"Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions! And its mistakes were beauties." - Samuelson. The next recession is coming, but no one has a clue when it will happen. I suspect the next year or so is going to be a protracted sideways move with considerable volatility (interest rate cycle, election year, nervousness about global demand etc.). The thing with crashes that foretell recessions is that they're rarely telegraphed with accuracy, i.e. there's typically a black swan. It's easy to point to any number of potential triggers over the years the didn't materialise.

The global economy is a complete dog at the moment, and there are some serious imbalances in asset prices (particularly housing) that will need to be addressed in the long run. This isn't a UK-specific issue and it isn't primarily about immigration or any other local conditions, although they've certainly exaggerated the trends here. It's being repeated in other countries with different local contexts. It's amazing how long the plates can keep spinning though, absent a black swan. The search for yield is a worry, but totally predictable under ZIRP/QE. Investors are mostly short-term idiots. The funds that are going under now are the riskiest of a risky bunch of funds, so I wouldn't overstate that particular risk.

[LucidDementia]

You hearing the stories about hedge funds collapsing state side. I don't know, maybe we are a bit closer to the fall. God only knows!

I've been paying attention.

I'm of a mind you may see Russia and China go back to the gold standard; they're sure as hell stocking up on it and Russia have a shedload of Yuan. If they do it'll be a very swift hard fall for the dollar.

I hope they wait a while as I don't have quite enough silver yet.

[PurpleGorilla]

I follow the logic, and it has been proposed by many, but it's difficult to see much evidence of low oil/gas prices stoking consumer spending, notwithstanding new car registrations. This is what everyone predicted in the US (i.e. a spectacular boom), but it hasn't materialised so far. Separately, industrial production remains weak or declining, particularly manufacturing production, which is suffering from reduced global demand, over-supply from China, and currency appreciation in the US and UK.

Depressed commodities can be interpreted in several different ways, i.e. low demand pointing to a recession, excess supply or some combination of the two. It isn't just about excess supply. Supply could change quite quickly and people do tend to forget how quickly inflation can change, particularly overall measures that include energy. OTOH, it's more difficult to increase demand and we all know that the stats from China are completely bogus. I don't see much chance of a boom in commodities, largely due to the lack of demand (alongside the strong supply in storage). I know many investors in commodities would like that boom (), but I don't see it happening.

I tend to agree with this. The thing so spending is debt fuelled, it has to decelerate.