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Reply to: UK jobless total rises by 25,000
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Previously on "UK jobless total rises by 25,000"
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Meanwhile in other news...
EU-born migrants working in the UK hits 2m for first time - Telegraph
There has also been a significant rise in the number of Romanians and Bulgarians working in the UK, from 147,000 when restrictions were lifted in January 2014 to 189,000 in April to June 2015.
The overall number of foreign-born workers in the UK, including both EU and non-EU workers, has risen to nearly 5million, fuelled by a surge in the number of people from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
There has been a fall in the number of people born in Africa, South Africa, the US and Australia and New Zealand in the UK.
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Originally posted by BrilloPad View PostI thought that was just the UK?
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Originally posted by jamesbrown View PostThe new central banker buzzword is macroprudential regulation (e.g. the recent MMR here). In simple terms, take an area of systemic risk, such as mortgage lending, prod it with a stick and see what happens. Because that always ends well. Only, they'll never use a particularly big stick because we all know the "recovery" is predicated on the consumer feeling good about their house price.
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Originally posted by PurpleGorilla View PostWhere do you go from there!
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Originally posted by alphadog View PostLooks like the Kiwi's have an even bigger problem (26pc annual house price inflation)...
Sweden (according to the article) has interest rates at -0.25%
Where do you go from there!
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Auckland house prices up 26% in June year, buyers looking further afield: REINZ - Business - NZ Herald NewsLast edited by alphadog; 12 August 2015, 13:05.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...n-house-prices
Looks like the Swede's have a similar problem...
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Originally posted by Zero Liability View PostYes, well I also believe the data set they focus on - at least officially - is far narrower (and more manipulated/massaged) than other indicators of economic performance. Perhaps not to the same extent as China's, but it still means these figures have little correlation with actual economic health. On the one hand, I don't think they can really afford to raise rates by a meaningful amount, what with the global credit bubble they've helped reflate and catapult skywards. On the other, if they don't, like you say, their already ineffective tools for dealing with another crisis will be no longer be there, and the market rate may then reassert itself forcefully. They rely on the perception of being in a position to do something. The election complicates matters as they're nowhere near as independent from political pressures as textbooks would have you think, so Yellen must be very nervous.
David Stockman's blog is something I keep track of since he surveys a broad variety of websites and data, and little of it is suggestive of anything close to a recovery anywhere you care to look.
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Originally posted by jamesbrown View PostI guess the smart money is on this. OTOH, I do wonder about Yellen. She's painted as this uber-dove, but I don't think that's right. Honestly, I wouldn't be stunned by a rate rise this year (September if the August NFP comes in really strong). Despite what they say about being data dependent, I think that's only partly true, and they're starting to realize that we're pretty far into the business cycle. They have feck all ammo when the next crash happens (look at the diminishing returns from successive QE, and none of that has been unwound yet). At some point, I think there's a cross-over between crappy economic data and having to do something in order to get to a position where they can cut rates when the next crash happens.
David Stockman's blog is something I keep track of since he surveys a broad variety of websites and data, and little of it is suggestive of anything close to a recovery anywhere you care to look.Last edited by Zero Liability; 12 August 2015, 12:25.
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UK jobless total rises by 25,000
On past trends it could be anything from NOW-5 years away.
My instincts say the end of 2017... Gives time for a rise in oil and the referendum result.
Last edited by PurpleGorilla; 12 August 2015, 12:14.
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Originally posted by PurpleGorilla View PostPredictions for the next economic crash?
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UK jobless total rises by 25,000
Originally posted by jamesbrown View PostI guess the smart money is on this. OTOH, I do wonder about Yellen. She's painted as this uber-dove, but I don't think that's right. Honestly, I wouldn't be stunned by a rate rise this year (September if the August NFP comes in really strong). Despite what they say about being data dependent, I think that's only partly true, and they're starting to realize that we're pretty far into the business cycle. They have feck all ammo when the next crash happens (look at the diminishing returns from successive QE, and none of that has been unwound yet). At some point, I think there's a cross-over between crappy economic data and having to do something in order to get to a position where they can cut rates when the next crash happens.
Last edited by PurpleGorilla; 12 August 2015, 12:04.
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Originally posted by Zero Liability View PostI'd say the issue is more the policies promoting easy credit, which cause it, as opposed to the symptom. Anyway, we'll probably see the Fed holding off on any meaningful rate rises until the next U.S. election is over and the BOE doing the same, with some occasionally hawkish commentary to make it seem like it's around the corner. I fully expect any rate increases in the near future to be minimal and insignificant, far below where market conditions would warrant.
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