Reply to: Spread Betting

[Churchill]

That, in a nutshell, is how a one-armed-bandit works. (Incidentally it is the law that says it has to work that way.)

threaded in "I write the music for fruit machines don't you know" mode.

Threaded, you're talking tulipe.

Churchill - in "I used to work for IGT" mode!

[Andyw]

the same goes for most bookies, they offset any potential loss by backing or laying at longer/shorter odds over on betfair or betdaq

Good one Mr. Hangford !

[HankWangford]

For an interesting (and possibly wealth-preserving) insight into how the spread-betting companies really make there money, read all the way to the bottom of this blog.

the same goes for most bookies, they offset any potential loss by backing or laying at longer/shorter odds over on betfair or betdaq

[IR35 Avoider]

For an interesting (and possibly wealth-preserving) insight into how the spread-betting companies really make there money, read all the way to the bottom of this blog.

[IR35 Avoider]

When I first saw AtW's post above, I thought he was saying that spread-betting is a zero-sum game. The spread-betters effectively provide a "thin layer" (to use a computing analogy) over the underlying share/commodity/bond/currency markets and related derivatives markets, so spread-betting is only zero-sum if the underlying markets are.

[IR35 Avoider]

That must be a lie - it should be a zero sum game and if the losers execute stops when they lose (and this is when you win), then their stop limit is pretty much your win limit. Of course they would prefer to make you believe that your wins are unlimited where as losses are limited. Yet another reason why it should be banned, good job that USA is doing the right thing about those pesky gambling companies.

I tested a strategy against historical data with stop-losses at various levels and found that the effect of stop-losses was to increase your losses. It's logical when you think about it: stop-losses force you to sell when the market is down. They only make sense if you set them at a level where you are fairly confident they will never be invoked. Their job then is to protect you against extreme circumstances, not relatively likely ones.

[oraclesmith]

Easy on a webtulipe though. Just look at their login !

[threaded]

.....
IF (time_since_last_played > decent_period_in_seconds) AND (credit_balance = 0) AND money_deposited THEN
new_player := TRUE;
END IF;
....

Basically, with a few little twists, such as the depress time on the buttons, the order of the holds, the time between button presses, the speed of the money entering the coin chute...

[oraclesmith]

Do you know that many fruit machine incorporate an artificial intelligence unit that can determine if you are a new player...

threaded in "and that's the 6502/Z80 ones, the 68000s play YOU!" mode

.....
IF (time_since_last_played > decent_period_in_seconds) AND (credit_balance = 0) AND money_deposited THEN
new_player := TRUE;
END IF;
....

[threaded]

Threaded I think you've let slip the real you.

Not some high flying ex-military academic international high flyer.

You are infact an old fat ex fruit-machine engineer.

Oh Dear.

Tis true, made lots of money out of fruit machines.

threaded in "like stealing candy from a baby" mode

[DimPrawn]

Threaded I think you've let slip the real you.

Not some high flying ex-military academic international high flyer.

You are infact an old fat ex fruit-machine engineer.

Oh Dear.

[threaded]

Yes, but the one-arm bandit doesn't know who's playing it. With on-line gambling you could tinker with the algorithm to guarantee that the session punter loses first, then gets a partial win. That way no first-time punter could walk away with a big win, only for the site to have to claw it back from unluckier punters. I know that over time the site would get an initial big win all back, but done my way you could provide the illusion of big payouts without actually risking anything - think cashflow !

Do you know that many fruit machine incorporate an artificial intelligence unit that can determine if you are a new player...

threaded in "and that's the 6502/Z80 ones, the 68000s play YOU!" mode

[oraclesmith]

That, in a nutshell, is how a one-armed-bandit works. (Incidentally it is the law that says it has to work that way.)

threaded in "I write the music for fruit machines don't you know" mode.

Yes, but the one-arm bandit doesn't know who's playing it. With on-line gambling you could tinker with the algorithm to guarantee that the session punter loses first, then gets a partial win. That way no first-time punter could walk away with a big win, only for the site to have to claw it back from unluckier punters. I know that over time the site would get an initial big win all back, but done my way you could provide the illusion of big payouts without actually risking anything - think cashflow !

[threaded]

Just changing the subject slightly - what's to stop an on-line gambling site from being completely fixed ? eg. anyone with a bit of technical skill could create a site which plays, say, blackjack with an on-line punter and maybe some other fake players, and only ever allows the punter to win back a fraction of what they've gambled. At least with real gambling you can see the cards being shuffled and dealt so it's hard (but not impossible) to fix, but with virtual gambling it's so temptingly easy-peasy that it's hard not to assume that all these sites are fixed.

That, in a nutshell, is how a one-armed-bandit works. (Incidentally it is the law that says it has to work that way.)

threaded in "I write the music for fruit machines don't you know" mode.

[oraclesmith]

Something new, something new...... a challenge !! I like it ! Plan B lives again.