"A blip" or "The end"

[Troll]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programme...ht/8062417.stm

This would appear to back that article up... Doomed

[GreenerGrass]

The structural problems are simply being ignored. And the next time it happens (my guess is 2017/18), it will make this look a picnic because for a lot of countries the cupboard will still be relatively bare.

2017/18 would suit me well, especially if we have a rebound in property and shares from 2011/12 until then. I had planned to go into semi-retirement or part time contract/work/business (not necessarily IT).
It would give enough time to relocate to the West Country, buy a nice barn conversion with a bit of land, and start hoarding food, guns and ammo.

P.S. The US Medicare and Social security funding are on schedule to be bankrupt by 2017.

[_V_]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programme...ht/8062417.stm

[pzz76077]

Still not convinced...

For the UK IT scene to pick up appreciably, US bellwethers such as HP, Cisco et all would need to announce a hike in their sales figures and this is not happening right now. Approximately 6 months after this kind of increased economic activity I expect UK employment prospects to improve.

If the 'Tories get in at the next election, then they will cut public services left, right and center, so goodbye to all of those lucrative public sector gigs that keep so many contractors (inc me) off the streets for the time being.

[Shimano105]

Including you?

[PM-Junkie]

……or at least that is the consensus of the 15 or so agents that I have spoken with this week.

Also bear in mind that the UK is about 6 months behind the US economic cycle and employment there (both perm & cont) is pants at the moment and no sign of the situation changing…..

pzz

One of the things that is happening right now (and has been happening for a while) is that the world is moving away from following the US economic cycle. So to assume that you know what is going to happen purely because of what is happening in the US economy is very brave.

There are lots and lots of variables, any or all of which will have a big effect on us. To name but four:

• The effect and timing of a general election this side of the pond and the impact on confidence of any changes to the democratic and political structure and mechanics of this country.
• The degree, if any, of the "turning our backs on the EU" in next month's EU elections (ie the proportion who vote for anti-EU parties).
• What the Chinese do with their dollars.
• The degree and how quickly the Asian economies turn around.

There are also a whole bunch of things still going on in the banking sector that may have an impact. The fact is, we are in circumstances that have never occurred before...and the people who really know what they are talking about do not claim to know how it is going to pan out.

One thing I am sure about is that this will happen again because government economic policy is basically about papering over the cracks in order to return to growth asap. The structural problems are simply being ignored. And the next time it happens (my guess is 2017/18), it will make this look a picnic because for a lot of countries the cupboard will still be relatively bare.

So when things do pick up, fill your boots and save like mad, but don't squirrel away your nuts in banks or financial "devices". My fallback is antiques, and has been for a while now.

But the best thing you can do is take what people say here with a very large pinch of salt, because when it comes to economics hardly anyone on these boards has the faintest idea what they are talking about

[pzz76077]

Its a blip....

……or at least that is the consensus of the 15 or so agents that I have spoken with this week.

Also bear in mind that the UK is about 6 months behind the US economic cycle and employment there (both perm & cont) is pants at the moment and no sign of the situation changing…..

pzz

[s2budd]

Yes, Darling says it will be all over by Christmas, and I guess no one will be unemployed and the £700bn public debt will be gone, it's business as usual.

Yes but he did not say which Christmas. My money is on Christmas 2012.

[PM-Junkie]

Yes, Darling says it will be all over by Christmas, and I guess no one will be unemployed and the £700bn public debt will be gone, it's business as usual.

....and where in my post did I say it would be over by Christmas?

[DimPrawn]

Bear in mind that at least a couple of months before the media twig that things are getting better, contractors will be getting taken on again. It happens in every recession - so don't pay too much heed to the doom and gloom in the media.

Yes, Darling says it will be all over by Christmas, and I guess no one will be unemployed and the £700bn public debt will be gone, it's business as usual.

[PM-Junkie]

What's your collective feeling about this pals ?

Are we all doomed to never again being meaningfully employed, or will all be reasonably happy chappies again in about 6 months ?

Bear in mind that at least a couple of months before the media twig that things are getting better, contractors will be getting taken on again. It happens in every recession - so don't pay too much heed to the doom and gloom in the media.

[DimPrawn]

You'll be reasonably happy in 6 months if you can afford to eat.

[Not So Wise]

Not the end, but neither will we be "happy" in 6 months, going to take about 12 months (to next financial year) at least

But look on bright side (if you make it to the flip side), just like crash in 01/02 pushed a lot of so called "contractors" back to permidom or out of IT totally, this crash will do the same. So there will be a lot less competition, which translates in lot higher rates once this is over

[winston]

What's your collective feeling about this pals ?

Are we all doomed to never again being meaningfully employed, or will all be reasonably happy chappies again in about 6 months ?