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Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370: The most probable facts

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    #11
    Ok here's a pilot posting - I promise I've only just read this - and it kind of agrees with what I posit as the the most probablye scenario:

    "not B777 rated , but 0ver 10K hours on B737's, I have been thinking about this for a while.

    I cannot help but still think its a catastrophic loss of electrical power, similar to to uncapping the battery switch and turning it off.......poof...instant darkness, no back up stby power....just total silence.

    The engines will continue to work, being totally capable of suction feed only, as long as no large thrust changes are made.
    The hydraulics will still operate as the hydraulic solenoids are only capable of being turned-off with electrical power, and without electrical power they are designed to default to open.

    but Autopilot, autoflight systems, avionics, radios ACARS etc and vitally important pressurization will all fail.
    If the crew were rendered unconscious thru this, the aircraft could well start a series of climbs and descends because the thin air at 35000ft is not conducive to aerodynamic stable flight.....but once it gets into thicker air at about 20000ft, the aerodynamic forces will allow the aircraft to reach a relatively stable flight regime, especially if the aircraft was in a cruise trimmed position at 35000ft.

    the climb to 45000ft also makes sense w.r.t electrical failure......MACH TRIM......the aircraft has a tendency to tuck nose down at high cruise mach numbers, so the electrical mach trimmer applies some "nose-up trim" and then balances this with applied forward deflection of the control column........the loss of electrical power and the aircraft would release its forward control column input, hence the climb, into even thinner air, followed by phugoid action, as it would drop off at the top, eventually it would settle into an "in-trim" cruise at a much lower more dense atmosphere

    Why the turn, I cannot explain "
    Hard Brexit now!
    #prayfornodeal

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      #12
      Oh and conveniently no one is reporting (much) that this very same aircraft suffered some reasonably severe damage to its wings in an earlier incident, which was then fixed

      Fixed well, I ask myself? hidden damage somewhere?
      Hard Brexit now!
      #prayfornodeal

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        #13
        Its rather goolish but alot of the blackbox recordings are on youtube including the Japan flight were 520 were lost, you hear the captain going 'flap, flap up ..... nose up .. nose up .... power ... power ......(sound of terrian warning) "Pull Up...Pull..Up", (captain) its the end.. (sound of impact)' sad

        The Swiss air one is also on there, plus a few more, all captain hang in till the end, there is one were the captain is a vertical dive from 30k feet and he talking to air traffic control .
        Last edited by ELBBUBKUNPS; 20 March 2014, 14:29.
        I like big butts and I cannot lie.

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          #14
          Originally posted by sasguru View Post
          ...facts
          This is being CUK general; what are these tings of which you are speaking memsaab?


          And what exactly is wrong with an "ad hominem" argument? Dodgy Agent, 16-5-2014

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            #15
            Originally posted by mudskipper View Post
            <pedant>You can't have probable facts; facts are certainties.</pedant>
            Now, I am not sure about this, but I don't think facts are necessarily certainties, but they are necessarily truths. And in epistemology truth and certainty are different concepts. But I accept that I may be wrong about this.

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              #16
              Originally posted by sasguru View Post
              A fire on board, like Swissair 111 which crashed off Nova Scotia in the 90s.
              This either disabled all the comms (ACARS, transponder etc) or the pilots disabled them while looking for the fault and were then overwhelmed by events.
              The plane crashed in the Indian Ocean somewhere.
              In other words, pluck a random improbable theory out of thin air and then try and make the facts fit it.

              “The period of the disintegration of the European Union has begun. And the first vessel to have departed is Britain”

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                #17
                Originally posted by sasguru View Post
                I think you fall into the cretin category. But you probably know that deep down.
                But I'm not cretinous enough to start a new thread on the same topic as an existing active thread
                Work in the public sector? Read the IR35 FAQ here

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                  #18
                  fact
                  /fakt/

                  noun
                  1.
                  a thing that is known or proved to be true.
                  "the most commonly known fact about hedgehogs is that they have fleas"
                  synonyms: reality, actuality, certainty, factuality, certitude;


                  I'm not convinced by the hedgehog flea example. Do all hedgehogs have fleas?


                  I suppose facts can be improbable, so they can be probable too. However I think in this case we're still talking hypotheses rather than facts.

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                    #19
                    Originally posted by mudskipper View Post
                    I think in this case we're still talking hypotheses rather than facts.
                    In this case we are listening and responding to the inane musings of a muttonhead like sasguru. We are starting a long way adrift of any probable facts. All we are doing is pontificating over the results of his latest bout of frantic foogling!!

                    “The period of the disintegration of the European Union has begun. And the first vessel to have departed is Britain”

                    Comment


                      #20
                      Originally posted by mudskipper View Post
                      fact
                      /fakt/

                      noun
                      1.
                      a thing that is known or proved to be true.
                      "the most commonly known fact about hedgehogs is that they have fleas"
                      synonyms: reality, actuality, certainty, factuality, certitude;


                      I'm not convinced by the hedgehog flea example. Do all hedgehogs have fleas?


                      I suppose facts can be improbable, so they can be probable too. However I think in this case we're still talking hypotheses rather than facts.
                      Surely we exist in a higher plane that fleas?

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