The so called UK economic recovery

[lilelvis2000]

A bit over £3bn from the figures I can find, which is approximately 0.2% of GDP. Is that really "huge"? Obviously it would be better if it went the other way, but it can hardly be the defining factor as BP suggests.

Here are figures I found. United Kingdom Balance of Trade | Actual Data | Forecasts | Calendar

About -£3bn. but Isn't that a monthly figure?

[Zero Liability]

Here are figures I found. United Kingdom Balance of Trade | Actual Data | Forecasts | Calendar

About -£3bn. but Isn't that a monthly figure?

Yes but not cumulative. I don't think the trade deficit per se is amongst the UK's problems.

[AtW]

To be fair, George tried to create a genuine recovery in the first few years.

But that didn't work...

So now he's gone back to the tried and tested, good old fashioned method of a debt fuelled, house price driven boom and bust.

+1

[AtW]

The fact that so much of it depends on the central bank keeping interest rates low is not a positive sign.

It's only low rates for the bank to have super high margins they could never dream of.

For the ordinary folk there is Wonga.

HTH

[Old Greg]

It's only low rates for the bank to have super high margins they could never dream of.

For the ordinary folk there is Wonga.

HTH

And one day you WILL be accepted for that Wonga sofa loan.

[edison]

The economic recovery is based on the stock markets and investment banks' performance but not on industrial output and wages. The UK 'economy' no longer needs the input from UK workers because banks now make their profits by investing in China, India and world commodities & food production.

I don't believe there is much correlation between the stock market and economic recovery i.e. GDP growth, certainly not for the UK stock market where a big chunk of those listed companies' profits are made abroad.

The current 'recovery' would seem to be consumption led which may explain why personal debt is rising.

I can't remember where I read it this weekend but apparently UK companies' levels of investment are at the lowest since the 1950s. If we're to stage any long term recovery it has to be more investment led rather than consumer led but this often hasn't been the case in the UK historically.

It's no coincidence that the FTSE 100 companies have record amounts of cash on their balance sheets. Maybe it's lack of confidence but they don't want to invest and a lot of the surplus cash they are generating is being paid out to shareholders as 'special dividends.'

Meanwhile the illusory feel good factor of artificially stimulated rising house prices is lulling people into building up debt again. In the USA people have paid down a lot bigger percentage of their debts over the last few years than the UK for example.

[tomtomagain]

Many parts of the UK will probably never recover.

That's a ludicrous statement. Everywhere adapts and changes over time.

[BrilloPad]

The fact that so much of it depends on the central bank keeping interest rates low is not a positive sign.

I think it's even worse for those who hold the UK's debt though, since it's inflating it away.

You mean sasguru? hahahahaha. Keep racking up the debts folks - they will all be inflating away. All sassy will have for his years of "hard work" is a bald head and a heart attack.

[Paddy]

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_299174.pdf

https://www.moneysmart.gov.au/scams/.../ponzi-schemes

[Paddy]