10,000 Britons are stranded in Lebanon

[TwoWolves]

Lets hope so but at the moment the US is busy vetoing every resolution. The sooner the UN get in there the better. With Iraq and Afghanistan already in anarchy, Iran flexing its muscles, the last thing the region needs is more uncontrolled conflict.

[BobTheCrate]

Something that strikes me as interesting though is given Hezbollah are financially backed by Iran and Syria, what was the relationship between Hezbollah and Syria leading up to Syria being effectively intimidated out of Lebanon ? Presumably Hezbollah must have been part of the initimidation but their paymasters would have been their protagonists ?

Two Wolves ?

[AlfredJPruffock]

Finnish foreign minister Erkki Tuomoija, whose country holds the revolving EU presidency, said in Brussels that the EU or UN may deploy such a force to end the conflict. A small UN contingent has been in the area for many years.


I did warn you to beware of Finland.

And now this.

[BobTheCrate]

A small UN contingent has been in the area for many years.

I bet they're keeping their heads bloody low though !

The EU are not about to send out vast numbers of troops 'n hardware. They'd probably become a Hezbollah target themselves and seen as yet another invading force (UN res' or not)

France, Germany, UK etc will sit back comfortably at ease watching the US veto any such resolution. That way the EU won't be able to get involved but won't be blamed either.

[TwoWolves]

Bob,

I was under the impression, and I'm guessing a bit, that Hezbollah's power has been on the wane. Adjunct to this there has been a divergence of strategy between Syria and Hezbollah as Iran becomes the regional poster-boy. It was a bit of a face-saving exercise for both parties however the ethnic ties were still strong (which is a strong driver of issues in the region).

You have to remember that there isn't very much internal cohesion within these groups which is why they need direct conflict to get their members to fall into line. The same could be said of Israel because in the back-drop to all this there is the issue of the new Israeli party and leader needing to demonstrate that he's every bit as tough as Sharon was.

[Troll]

I seemed to recall during the '82 invasion of Lebanon the first casualty was an Irish soldier attached to the UN peacekeeping force on the border

[TwoWolves]

Policing the ME is a thankless task.

[BobTheCrate]

Two Wolves,

Your thoughts surrounding the internal cohesion of such groups is persuasive but it seems like me you're a bit lost as to the Hezbollah - Syria relationship leading up to Syria's effective expulsion from Lebanon.

If Hezbollah's power was or is waning, then whoever in Lebanon was reponsible for Syria's ejection would appear to be much more than just a handful for Hezbollah, if 'they' so chose.

Who is 'they' I wonder ?

Were Hezbollah pro the ejection of Syria or anti ... and to what extent ? Normally these chaps tend to have fairly extreme views on that sort of thing.

[TwoWolves]

Bob,

You are correct and I would not be so dishonest as to relay certainties to you that I do not have. I have not found an individual or source that can answer that question to my satisfaction.

I'm open to offers Bob; what do you think?

[BobTheCrate]

... I'm open to offers Bob; what do you think?

Beats me TW - I was hoping you'd know or hazzard an educated guess.

Do you agree it's an interesting & relevant question though ?