House Prices

[ASB]

Well show me a 25-year period when they have fallen then smarta*se! Or else stop waffling like Margaret Beckett!!

I think you're pretty safe.

'74-'96 is only 22 years. In this period the index rose from 20.4 to 110.1 but this was largely due to inflation (an average of about 7.5%). By comparison the price index (http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib...9/rp99-020.pdf) changed from 100 to 555.2 (which is 20.4 to 113.26). This was a fall in real terms.

Between '74-'99 the nationwide index for northen property changes from 17.4 to 111.9. (7.7% per year). By comparsion the price index (to 98) changes from 17.4 to 103.06.

Over the last 30 years prices have "only" doubled in real terms (although most of that is in the last 10 years).

There is no easily available average data predating '73. Since inflation is a modern phenomeno (total inflation between 1750 and 1938 was only around 300% - 0.6% PA) this is probably the place to look. There were very substantial price falls in the latter half of the 19th century, given the low level of inflation there is a reasonable chance of 25 years with a fall in real terms. Unfortunately it is difficult to find any reference data.

[eternalnomad]

I think you're pretty safe..

An interesting post ASB (thanks for that), however Shaunbhoys claim is not safe.

Lets take a look at Japan from 1980 to 2005. After 25 years commencing in 1980 house prices in Japan finish exactly where they started.



*Yes, I know the graph only goes to 2004 so if you want the data for 2005 take a look at the addtional data below (which shows things didnt get "any better" for Japanese property in 2005)

[DimPrawn]

An interesting post ASB (thanks for that), however Shaunbhoys claim is not safe.

Lets take a look at Japan from 1980 to 2005. After 25 years commencing in 1980 house prices in Japan finish exactly where they started.

Last time I looked out of the window, I was living in Swindon, not Tokyo.

[eternalnomad]

Last time I looked out of the window, I was living in Swindon, not Tokyo.

Swindon...you have my sympathies Mr Prawn

[DimPrawn]

Not so much living, more existing.

[NoddY]

I didn't realise houses in Swindon had windows.

[DimPrawn]

The number of home sales in England and Wales has jumped by 37% over the past year, the Land Registry has said, as the housing market pick-up continues.
Prices in England and Wales rose 5.05% in the year to 31 March, the registry said, to an average of £192,745.

Wealthy City financiers and foreign buyers pushed London prices 6% higher to more than £300,000 on average.


Houses falling in value. Never!

[wendigo100]

Houses falling in value. Never!

Certainly not while our population is increasing.

If Japan had opened the immigration floodgates to all and sundry, their property would become a scarcer resource as well.

Of course, that pre-supposes that as many people would want to move there as seem to want to come here.

[AlfredJPruffock]

Property Prices for Dummies

One reads endless debates on this site about property prices.

So I propose to end the debate for once and for all.

Property Prices will either

Rise

Fall

Or remain the same.

Irrespective of the above, grey slates will remain grey slates.

[threaded]

Irrespective of the above, grey slates will remain grey slates.

Unless it rains, and then they go black.

Or a seagull poohs on them, then they go white.