The Failure of a Forced Marriage

[Arturo Bassick]

I think this has to come further. The Euro and the EU are still two separate issues. The Merkozy pact wish and play it otherwise, but that is the case. That needs to be resolved before the UK can make any decision on where it stands on both.

[doodab]

I think this has to come further. The Euro and the EU are still two separate issues. The Merkozy pact wish and play it otherwise, but that is the case. That needs to be resolved before the UK can make any decision on where it stands on both.

The trouble is they are very much intertwined and the UK doesn't have the option of waiting to see what happens without incurring some risk. This is what has people wringing their hands.

[Arturo Bassick]

The trouble is they are very much intertwined and the UK doesn't have the option of waiting to see what happens without incurring some risk. This is what has people wringing their hands.

I think the resolution of this will see whether the UK will remain in the EU.

IMHO. The euro can only survive intact if they go for full political and financial union across the member states. This may not be possible as some of the nations will not stand for the loss of control over sovereign issues and a dilution of national identities.
This would be another Union within the EU which is not unprecedented as you may have heard of the UK. The problem is that the eurozone thinks of itself as the EU and wants to use all the facilities the EU provides.
There are enough countries in the eurozone to push the EU into taking on the role, but I think that would need a unanimous decision which the UK will not support. Likewise any decision the eurozone makes that effects the EU will also have to accepted at EU level at which point the UK can use EU law to refuse or ask for compensation. For instance: A financial services tax within the eurozone MAY take business away from the UK, but under EU law that would be a restrictive practice which would either be illegal or would require compensation payments to the UK. Any money gained by the EU under this tax would have to be distributed to the UK too.

[doodab]

I think the resolution of this will see whether the UK will remain in the EU.

IMHO. The euro can only survive intact if they go for full political and financial union across the member states. This may not be possible as some of the nations will not stand for the loss of control over sovereign issues and a dilution of national identities.
This would be another Union within the EU which is not unprecedented as you may have heard of the UK. The problem is that the eurozone thinks of itself as the EU and wants to use all the facilities the EU provides.
There are enough countries in the eurozone to push the EU into taking on the role, but I think that would need a unanimous decision which the UK will not support. Likewise any decision the eurozone makes that effects the EU will also have to accepted at EU level at which point the UK can use EU law to refuse or ask for compensation. For instance: A financial services tax within the eurozone MAY take business away from the UK, but under EU law that would be a restrictive practice which would either be illegal or would require compensation payments to the UK. Any money gained by the EU under this tax would have to be distributed to the UK too.

I'm inclined to agree with the first line.

I think the French and to a lesser extent the Germans have been wanting to get the UK out of the way for a while now. The other "objectors" are relatively weak and somewhat dependent on the larger states so can essentially be strong armed into going along with them. The idea that a European superstate is unthinkable and will never happen is looking more and more like wishful thinking.

While it might currently be the case that we could use EU law to interfere with or block "national" legislation it's not impossible to imagine that a new institution could usurp the EU and leave us without a legal leg to stand on, especially if the eurosceptics got their way and we actually left the EU.

[Arturo Bassick]

I'm inclined to agree with the first line.

I think the French and to a lesser extent the Germans have been wanting to get the UK out of the way for a while now. The other "objectors" are relatively weak and somewhat dependent on the larger states so can essentially be strong armed into going along with them. The idea that a European superstate is unthinkable and will never happen is looking more and more like wishful thinking.

While it might currently be the case that we could use EU law to interfere with or block "national" legislation it's not impossible to imagine that a new institution could usurp the EU and leave us without a legal leg to stand on, especially if the eurosceptics got their way and we actually left the EU.

That way lies war!

To become a European super state the members would have to back out of the EU. The eurozone could form its own state but would then have to negotiate membership of the EU as a single (powerful) entity.

[sasguru]

All of the above has as its basic premise that Germany pays for the PIIGS.
Portuguese and Greek people aren't suddenly going to change hundreds of years of history and become manufacturing (or indeed services) powerhouses.
So someone has to bail them out of the hole they're in right now - and probably keep subsidising them within the confines of a European superstate.

[doodab]

The eurozone could form its own state but would then have to negotiate membership of the EU as a single (powerful) entity.

It wouldn't have to though. It could negotiate with the EU, or individual states within it, without actually having to join.

Of course if Britain were to leave the whole question would become rather academic.

[doodab]

All of the above has as its basic premise that Germany pays for the PIIGS.
Portuguese and Greek people aren't suddenly going to change hundreds of years of history and become manufacturing (or indeed services) powerhouses.
So someone has to bail them out of the hole they're in right now - and probably keep subsidising them within the confines of a European superstate.

I suspect a chunk of the German political classes, having reintegrated the east fairly successfully, are thinking along those lines, and thinking that it can be done.

[Arturo Bassick]

It wouldn't have to though. It could negotiate with the EU, or individual states within it, without actually having to join.

I think EU rules would prevent that. Oddly it may end up that the UK is the only member of the EU left.

[doodab]

I think EU rules would prevent that. Oddly it may end up that the UK is the only member of the EU left.

I don't think their are rules covering member states merging, or an existing state splitting. It's not unprecedented or impossible for states to leave though.