Recession over (probably)

[AtW]

"Britain expected to exit worst recession in decades"
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"Britain expected to exit worst recession, in decades"

[Doggy Styles]

Could this have had something to do with everyone spending before 31-Dec when VAT went back up and the car discounts dried up?

[AtW]

Could this have had something to do with everyone spending before 31-Dec when VAT went back up and the car discounts dried up?

Have you seen the weather on 31st? I have not seen many cars on the road apart from mine

[Doggy Styles]

Have you seen the weather on 31st? I have not seen many cars on the road apart from mine

I'm referring to the whole quarter up to and including the 31st.

[TimberWolf]

The currency markets don't seem particularly enamoured with Sterling subsequent to the ONS release.

[Doggy Styles]

Bet on a March election.

The figures for Q1 2010 should be worse, as the effects of QE, VAT cut and car stimulus disappear.

The Q1 2010 figures will come out in three months. If Labour left the election until the last moment, in May, we'd go back into recession in the middle of their election campaign.

[AtW]

we'd go back into recession in the middle of their election campaign.

That's the beauty - definition of recession requires 2 consecutive quarters of reduced GDP, so technically (unless this number is revised - I think it may go upwards a bit) Britain won't be officially again in recession until after June at the earliest.

[Doggy Styles]

That's the beauty - definition of recession requires 2 consecutive quarters of reduced GDP, so technically (unless this number is revised - I think it may go upwards a bit) Britain won't be officially again in recession until after June at the earliest.

Fair point AtW. Technically I should have said back to negative growth (now you come to mention it, is it only two quarters?)

If July does indicate we are back in recession, the first quarter will be posthumously included in the period of recession. It's just that we won't know until July, after the election.

[Ruprect]

The mash has explained it fairly succinctly:

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/b...-201001262413/

[MrMark]

Bet on a March election.

The figures for Q1 2010 should be worse, as the effects of QE, VAT cut and car stimulus disappear.

The Q1 2010 figures will come out in three months. If Labour left the election until the last moment, in May, we'd go back into recession in the middle of their election campaign.

Gordon the bottler? Err, no thanks. He's going to drag it out as long as he can. A leopard cannot change its spots.