Chart of the day

[sasguru]

Overpriced is in the eye of the beholder. There are many factors involved, the property itself, the area, local knowledge, the potential for growth, the demographics, social trends etc. etc.
No offence mate, but like most IT guys you are too black or white. I have a (so far) fairly succesful formula for my rentals and I suspect that some parts of London have potential for further growth even at current prices. I have my eye on a particular area now. It's a short overland train ride from London Bridge (hence good for the City), the tube is being extended and will arrive between 2008 and 2012, the housing stock is old Victorian and Edwardian and the area is very green. House prices are siginificantly below London average. That's where I will be looking this weekend.

[AtW]

Overpriced is in the eye of the beholder.

Yes, behold your eyes before 16th consequtive month of house price drops. I am sure there will be plenty of people thinking that their house is worth at least 40% more than the market will be prepared to pay in a couple of year.

[sasguru]

Yes, behold your eyes before 16th consequtive month of house price drops.

Not for my three flats. 2 have gone up slightly, 1 has fallen slightly.
There are regional variations. Besides rental returns have spiked recently.
Guess what, if people don't buy, they have to rent somewhere. If my properties are rentable, I don't really care about house price falls, I'm in this for the long run.
Anyway I don't think you have the nerve to be in business, you panic too easily. So finish your SKA and flog it to someone who is more business minded. I would set myself a time limit though - you may be flogging a dead horse, in which case cut your losses and make some money in normal IT.

[AtW]

Guess what, if people don't buy, they have to rent somewhere.

Indeed, and when they rent they can choose ( just like I did) rent a house with a mate (thus cutting costs in half) rather than buying a house for myself - avoiding to buy house does not mean a full house will be rented by that person -- this is clearly shown by rents in my area which seem to be under pressure to go down.

[sasguru]

Sorry to bring you into the real world, but people have girlfriends or wives. Sharing with a mate is not an option. So that's who my rental demographic is: couples where one or more partners works in the City. So far (4 to 5 years) I've never had a single void (empty flat) in the 2 flats I rent out. In the last 2 years, the rental yield has increased by about £200 per month. I'm basically getting my mortgages paid for me, very nicely indeed

[AtW]

the rental yield has increased by about £200 per month. I'm basically getting my mortgages paid for me, very nicely indeed

What about those who had their houses repossessed? You seem to be so up your arse Mr Statistitian that you assume your own good case applies to everybody: wake up man, it does not which is clearly shown by rapid growth of repos on the chart!

[sasguru]

Well if people buy houses willy nilly without knowing what they are doing, they deserve everything they get. Its a free country and that includes the freedom to be stupid. Personally I would welcome a 20-30% drop (any more and it might hurt a little)- it would enable me to put deposits on 2 or 3 more. I intend this to be a permanent lucrative sideline to fund my (very?) comfortable retirement in about 10-15 years.
However you have to be passionate about property and know what you are doing. I always get a kick out of it.

[Francko]

What about those who had their houses repossessed? You seem to be so up your arse Mr Statistitian that you assume your own good case applies to everybody: wake up man, it does not which is clearly shown by rapid growth of repos on the chart!

You start all your logic from totally unverified and incomplete assumptions!!!!! What's this thing that if you rent you can share while if you own you can't!! Can you explain me that? Further, you don't add any qualitative check to your data. What are 20,000 reposession??? Pratically nothing. What if reposession were only 10 and in one year go up to 40? It's a 300% increase. Sounds huge. What's better if they increase from 100,000 to 200,000 or from 10 to 40???

Just to continue, your variables do not take into account any other variables that might influence the behaviour of your system.

Not only but you consider your own personal circumstances as being the norm for everybody. Will you hardcode your application to your specific server configuration or will you also consider the majority of servers(i.e. the majority of people who do not have your circumstances that you normally do not even take into consideration - i.e. they are british/EU, don't have problems with visas, they are married, have children, do not have rich russian parents who cover their asses if things go wrong, etc. etc.).

I really hope your programming skills are not a reflection of your logic skills or else your SKA is doomed.

[AtW]

I really hope your programming skills are not a reflection of your logic skills or else your SKA is doomed.

Let's get back to this topic this time next year.

[Francko]

Well if people buy houses willy nilly without knowing what they are doing, they deserve everything they get. Its a free country and that includes the freedom to be stupid. Personally I would welcome a 20-30% drop (any more and it might hurt a little)- it would enable me to put deposits on 2 or 3 more. I intend this to be a permanent lucrative sideline to fund my (very?) comfortable retirement in about 10-15 years.
However you have to be passionate about property and know what you are doing. I always get a kick out of it.

You have 3 houses and you can't retire???

Oh, now I understand you have 3 mortgage debts, not 3 houses.