Gdp Doom

[Mich the Tester]

Did they really lose 7 billion?

After we´ve seen a few bank bail-outs, that doesn't even sound like a lot these days.

[TimberWolf]

So what's the safest haven currently: cash, property, shares, foreign currency (e.g. yuan), other. Or none of the above?

[PM-Junkie]

Because evidently the market has not realized the full impact yet. Once they realize the full doom - they will flee to USD, EUR, YEN.

GBP is already bent over, lube has been applied, eyes are shut - it is just a matter of minutes before the big Chinese and Middle East "friends" take turns on going Mid-evil on it.

"The Market" really should start consulting you for advice....obviously you know more about it than most other people.

Do a little checking into the state of the US economy (don't just listen to Embalmer), and a little research into the risks that are very likely to impact the Eurozone - and how many dollars the Chinese own.

The pound will plummet if and when the UK credit rating weakens, and that will drop if the government can't raise the debt they are seeking - until then most other countries have similar problems to us, just not as long lasting or as deep. We should have been in a far better position than we are, and would have been if we didn't have an idiot running the economy...hence the level of debt we are going to hit.

[ASB]

As for if things would have been different if the Tories were in power - yes I agree that there would probably have been a debt bubble but I don't think we'd be saddled with such a bloated public sector as we have now.

Yes, I think you're right. Public sector would still be bloated - just not quite so much. Certainly we're in the cack with borrowing for about the next 20 years, but - much as I'd like to - it can't all be blamed on the Labour government.

I must agree that Brown's gold sale was an absoulte stroke of genius - but only for anybody wanting to buy.

[Mich the Tester]

So what's the safest haven currently: cash, property, shares, foreign currency (e.g. yuan), other. Or none of the above?

A little bar selling cold beer, ice cream and chilled muscadet on a beach with lots of sunshine, a few palm trees and some nubile local girls. Have you ever seen a beach shack that isn't making a profit? OK, I'm not counting Blackpool here, I mean beaches in Portugal, South America, Oz and so on. How many of those guys are really miserable?

[Cyberman]

As for if things would have been different if the Tories were in power - yes I agree that there would probably have been a debt bubble but I don't think we'd be saddled with such a bloated public sector as we have now.

The Tories believe in smaller government and thus public sector and correspondingly would be saving Billions currently on bloated wages and pensions.
I also feel that pensions would be somewhat healthier in the private sector under the Tories as they would not have hit dividend tax credits.
Immigration would have been lower, the tax credit system would not exist, Human Rights Act would not be incorporated into British law, ID cards would not have got off the drawing board, nor HIPS and of course MPs' second home allowances would not be tax free.

[Cyberman]

"The pound will plummet if and when the UK credit rating weakens, and that will drop if the government can't raise the debt they are seeking - until then most other countries have similar problems to us, just not as long lasting or as deep. We should have been in a far better position than we are, and would have been if we didn't have an idiot running the economy...hence the level of debt we are going to hit.

The pound is plummeting. It is down from 87p to 90p to the Euro since the budget. It's a one way ride from here on !!

[Mich the Tester]

At this rate I'll be coming to the UK for my summer holiday. Scilly Isles look nice.

[ASB]

The Tories believe in smaller government and thus public sector and correspondingly would be saving Billions currently on bloated wages and pensions.
I also feel that pensions would be somewhat healthier in the private sector under the Tories as they would not have hit dividend tax credits.
Immigration would have been lower, the tax credit system would not exist, Human Rights Act would not be incorporated into British law, ID cards would not have got off the drawing board, nor HIPS and of course MPs' second home allowances would not be tax free.

Certainly the public sector would not have grown so much (rightly so in my view) but any incoming Tory government will be faced with the problem of inheriting the massively bloated sector. Realistically they are unlikely to be able to shrink it much - but they will certainly stop it growing.

It's easy to say pensions etc would be healthier - because they wouldn't have kept dipping their fingers in. I am not convinced though. In 1992 a broadly similar plan was proposed by the Tories, however it was not implemented. I believe it resurfaced in 1997 before the Tories were voted out.

Certainly the tax credit system is bizarre in the extreme, and it's difficult to see the Tories doing anything similar. Hopefully they'll abolish it. A system which pays back your own money to 90% of households is clearly bonkers. IT costs a small fortune to administer. If they beleive that sort of tinkering is needed it would surely be far easier just to do it through tax allowances.

[ThomasSoerensen]

"The Market" really should start consulting you for advice....obviously you know more about it than most other people.

Do a little checking into the state of the US economy (don't just listen to Embalmer), and a little research into the risks that are very likely to impact the Eurozone - and how many dollars the Chinese own.

The pound will plummet if and when the UK credit rating weakens, and that will drop if the government can't raise the debt they are seeking - until then most other countries have similar problems to us, just not as long lasting or as deep. We should have been in a far better position than we are, and would have been if we didn't have an idiot running the economy...hence the level of debt we are going to hit.

This is in progress.

Why do you need the BoE to buy Sovereign bonds if there are plenty of willing investors waiting to lend the UK money?

Why do UK bonds yield 3.51-3.52%?
That is more than I pay on my mortgage in Denmark. Does that mean I am more worthy of credit than the UK?

The UK is (in) a bad state and the investors are slowly applying the thumb screws.

Soon bond auctions will not get signed 100%

Then what?

What happens when Darling is not able to borrow all the money he has stated in his Budget?