Uber doomed

[Foxy Moron]

I'll be buying up all those repo'ed contractor pallaces.

[sasguru]

Most of you are still not getting it. This is going to last years.

If you are cash rich today - you might not be in a couple of years.

Sentiment? Yes that plays a part - but a country that produces little has been found out and there's a limit to what can be done by "confidence".

Boom? Forget it. Most people will be much worse off in 2016 than they were in 2006. That is the fundamental truth that is being ignored.

[Jubber]

I like to keep things simple. What is a catastrophe anyway?

If a catastrophe means that individuals can no longer take out more and more debt to create a dubious property portfolio - then I think that is no bad thing.

If a catastrophe means that we no longer can command 500/day and have to just earn a living I see that as no bad thing.

I'm old enough to have been through a couple of these already, my personal opinion is that this will be the worst yet, but hopefully I won't have to sell my teeth or go to the workhouse, just keep my head down and live one day at a time.

[BrilloPad]

Most of you are still not getting it. This is going to last years.

If you are cash rich today - you might not be in a couple of years.

Sentiment? Yes that plays a part - but a country that produces little has been found out and there's a limit to what can be done by "confidence".

Boom? Forget it. Most people will be much worse off in 2016 than they were in 2006. That is the fundamental truth that is being ignored.

Can you expand on the bit in bold please? Why do you think those who are cash rich now will lose their money? Will banks go bust?

What about the capacity of the westerner to spend spend spend? Will we now pull in our horns and try to pay off debt?

[Foxy Moron]

The fundamental truth is no-one knows. Herd mentality told us the housing/credit boom would go on forever, or a "soft landing". The same mentality is now in doom/meltdown mode. In a few years this will be over, I have no doubt, so sit tight, buy cheap assets when the opportunity arrises and arrive at the next boom well prepared.

[sasguru]

Can you expand on the bit in bold please? Why do you think those who are cash rich now will lose their money? Will banks go bust?

What about the capacity of the westerner to spend spend spend? Will we now pull in our horns and try to pay off debt?

Well the state is borrowing squillons of pounds on our behalf.
No one is saying how that will be paid off.
You can bet your bottom dollar (literally) that the government (of any hue) is going to have to to:

1) Raise taxes
2) Drastically cut public spending.

So even if the banks don't go bust, they'll get your money one way or another. Plus you'll have to fork out for stuff that you currently enjoy by virtue of paying taxes.

Either way real disposable income is going to fall over the next few years. Spending will therefore not be an option.

[sasguru]

.

You are predicting inflation when we are going to experience the exact oposite, value of hard cash (fiat or gold) is increasing as prices of everything else falls.

You believe the deflation scenario being bandied about by bank economists whose employers interests lie in getting large sums of money from the government?

[Pickle2]

You believe the deflation scenario being bandied about by bank economists whose employers interests lie in getting large sums of money from the government?

No, I believe the deflation argument because the amount of cash and credit in the system is falling off a cliff. Now the fiat bubble has popped and credit is being destroyed far quicker than cash can be printed, there is less credit/cash to go about, so the price of things will drop.

Inflation is a product of an overheating economy, not one in a depression.

[OwlHoot]

I came to the conclusion this weekend that we are uber doomed. It's just that people haven't yet understood what desperate straits we're in.
If you go down the pub and coffee shop people are behaving much the same (even if they are spending less). This is not because they they know anything but because "hope springs eternal in the human breast". It's like fiddling while Rome burns.
All the money being pumped in, in various ways around the world is a last ditch attempt to avert catastrophe and it's not going to work.

If you think gold is expensive now, watch it take off this and next year. Even if it falls it will be as nothing compared to the fall in value of the fiat currencies.

I'm sure you're right (see .sig). Also, any improvement will mean the price of oil starting to rise again, even if nothing untoward kicks off in the Middle East, and that in itself will act as a brake on recovery.

[expat]

Can you expand on the bit in bold please? Why do you think those who are cash rich now will lose their money? Will banks go bust?

What about the capacity of the westerner to spend spend spend? Will we now pull in our horns and try to pay off debt?

Banks will go bust. Taxes will go up, a lot. You will not always be able to earn so much money and may have to spend your savings. Anyway, if you don't then the government will.