USA to collapse in 2010 ?

[ratewhore]

I'm sensing a distinct lack of theoretical or empirical evidence to support this claim...

[PM-Junkie]

Personally - and time will prove me wrong - but what we will see in the USA within the next 18 months will be bad - very bad - noone talks about the FEMA camps they have been building all over the USA for the past 3 years by Private contractors - not to mention the stuff Biden said prior to Obama's election about some kind of attack on US soil -

To me its all part of the creation and consolidation of the Americas and the Amero - Id give it max till 2015.

I agree, but for different reasons. I think it will all kick off over there if they do a JFK on Obama. Civil wars usually kick off when there are two groups that hate each other - in the US there are a whole bunch of tinderboxes; racial, political, social, economic, religious...and if anything happened to Obama I think that would be the trigger. And millions of them know it and are preparing for it too - even in this recession the sale of guns and ammunition is increasing.

If I lived there I would get out....fast.

[Pickle2]

What the fook are you guys smokin'? Seriously.

[PM-Junkie]

What the fook are you guys smokin'? Seriously.

Take a look around you and don't rely on what the media tells you, and you may begin to understand...

[sasguru]

Take a look around you and don't rely on what the media tells you, and you may begin to understand...

Well there's not relying on what the media tells you and then there's going the whole hog and being over paranoid.
While I think the US is really quite split, I don't think it's at the level of civil war. There is no evidence, e.g. that the military is anti-goverment and would mount a coup (e.g. as is the case in Pakistan).
There are small pockets of rabidly right-wing nutters, but as long as the army is on side these can be dealt with.
Additonally these bands of nutters are more inclined to fight each other than to organise themselves, like right wing cretins everywhere.

[AlfredJPruffock]

I'm sensing a distinct lack of theoretical or empirical evidence to support this claim...

Well just for starters here are some of the trends which could back up this theory -


All pension funds, private and public, are done. If you are receiving one, you won't be. If you think you will in the future, you won't be.

PBGC will fail as well.

Pension funds will be forced to start eating their "seed corn" within the next 12 months and once that begins there is no way to recover.

All annuities will be defaulted to the state insurance protection (if any) on them.
The state insurance funds will be bankrupted and unable to be replenished.

Essentially, all annuities are toast.

Expect zero, be ecstatic if you do better.

All insurance companies with material exposure to these obligations will go bankrupt, without exception.

Some of these firms are dangerously close to this happening right here and now; the rest will die within the next 6-12 months. If you have other insured interests with these firms, be prepared to pay a LOT more with a new company that can't earn anything off investments, and if you have a claim in process at the time it happens, it won't get paid.

The probability of you getting "boned" on any transaction with an insurance company is extremely high - I rate this risk in excess of 90%.


The FDIC will be unable to cover bank failure obligations. They will attempt to do more of what they're doing now (raising insurance rates and doing special assessments) but will fail; the current path has no chance of success. Congress will backstop them (because they must lest shotguns come out) with disastrous results.


In short, FDIC backstops will take precedence even over Social Security and Medicare.
Government debt costs will ramp.

This warning has already been issued and is being ignored by President Obama.

When (not if) it happens debt-based Federal Funding will disappear. This leads to....


Tax receipts are cratering and will continue to. I expect total tax receipts to fall to under $1 trillion within the next 12 months.

Combined with the impossibility of continued debt issue (rollover will only remain possible at the short duration Treasury has committed to over the last ten years if they cease new issue) a 66% cut in the Federal Budget will become necessary.

This will require a complete repudiation of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, a 50% cut in the military budget and a 50% across-the-board cut in all other federal programs.

That will likely get close.

Tax-deferred accounts will be seized to fund rollovers of Treasury debt at essentially zero coupon (interest). If you have a 401k, or what's left of it, or an IRA, consider it locked up in Treasuries; it's not yours any more. Count on this happening - it is essentially a certainty.

Any firm with debt outstanding is currently presumed dead as the street presumption is that they have lied in some way. Expect at least 20% of the S&P 500 to fail within 12 months as a consequence of the complete and total lockup of all credit markets which The Fed will be unable to unlock or backstop.

This will in turn lead to....

The unemployed will have 5-10 million in direct layoffs added within the next 12 months. Collateral damage (suppliers, customers, etc) will add at least another 5-10 million workers to that, perhaps double that many. U-3 (official unemployment rate) will go beyond 15%, U-6 (broad form) will reach 30%.
Civil unrest will break out before the end of the year.

The Military and Guard will be called up to try to stop it.

They won't be able to.

Big cities are at risk of becoming a free-fire death zone.


If you live in one, figure out how you can get out and live somewhere else if you detect signs that yours is starting to go "feral"; witness New Orleans after Katrina for how fast, and how bad, it can get.

[sasguru]

Well just for starters here are some of the trends which could back up this theory -


All pension funds, private and public, are done. If you are receiving one, you won't be. If you think you will in the future, you won't be.

PBGC will fail as well.

Pension funds will be forced to start eating their "seed corn" within the next 12 months and once that begins there is no way to recover.

All annuities will be defaulted to the state insurance protection (if any) on them.
The state insurance funds will be bankrupted and unable to be replenished.

Essentially, all annuities are toast.

Expect zero, be ecstatic if you do better.

All insurance companies with material exposure to these obligations will go bankrupt, without exception.

Some of these firms are dangerously close to this happening right here and now; the rest will die within the next 6-12 months. If you have other insured interests with these firms, be prepared to pay a LOT more with a new company that can't earn anything off investments, and if you have a claim in process at the time it happens, it won't get paid.

The probability of you getting "boned" on any transaction with an insurance company is extremely high - I rate this risk in excess of 90%.


The FDIC will be unable to cover bank failure obligations. They will attempt to do more of what they're doing now (raising insurance rates and doing special assessments) but will fail; the current path has no chance of success. Congress will backstop them (because they must lest shotguns come out) with disastrous results.


In short, FDIC backstops will take precedence even over Social Security and Medicare.
Government debt costs will ramp.

This warning has already been issued and is being ignored by President Obama.

When (not if) it happens debt-based Federal Funding will disappear. This leads to....


Tax receipts are cratering and will continue to. I expect total tax receipts to fall to under $1 trillion within the next 12 months.

Combined with the impossibility of continued debt issue (rollover will only remain possible at the short duration Treasury has committed to over the last ten years if they cease new issue) a 66% cut in the Federal Budget will become necessary.

This will require a complete repudiation of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, a 50% cut in the military budget and a 50% across-the-board cut in all other federal programs.

That will likely get close.

Tax-deferred accounts will be seized to fund rollovers of Treasury debt at essentially zero coupon (interest). If you have a 401k, or what's left of it, or an IRA, consider it locked up in Treasuries; it's not yours any more. Count on this happening - it is essentially a certainty.

Any firm with debt outstanding is currently presumed dead as the street presumption is that they have lied in some way. Expect at least 20% of the S&P 500 to fail within 12 months as a consequence of the complete and total lockup of all credit markets which The Fed will be unable to unlock or backstop.

This will in turn lead to....

The unemployed will have 5-10 million in direct layoffs added within the next 12 months. Collateral damage (suppliers, customers, etc) will add at least another 5-10 million workers to that, perhaps double that many. U-3 (official unemployment rate) will go beyond 15%, U-6 (broad form) will reach 30%.
Civil unrest will break out before the end of the year.

The Military and Guard will be called up to try to stop it.

They won't be able to.

Big cities are at risk of becoming a free-fire death zone.


If you live in one, figure out how you can get out and live somewhere else if you detect signs that yours is starting to go "feral"; witness New Orleans after Katrina for how fast, and how bad, it can get.

Alf, you've taken too many drugs over your lifetime.
Where's the source of this paranoid raving?

[PM-Junkie]

Alf, you've taken too many drugs over your lifetime.
Where's the source of this paranoid raving?

The source is being there, talking to my friends and family. First hand knowledge basically.

The US is a tinderbox. A huge number of people are hacked off with their government for pretty obvious reasons. Like him or loath him, they voted for Obama and they see the Washington machine doing everything it can to prevent his policies from being implemented. Whether or not you agree with it, that fuels the distrust and a lot of anger. The other side of the fence is that people who are against Obama see him as a socialist/communist, and that as a result the communists have taken over now. Stupid I know, but that is the opinion. That is the political aspect.

They are having to come to terms with no longer being the big "I am" in the world. And they blame their government and business leaders for that. And don't underestimate the anger that millions of them feel for seemingly having their constitution ripped up as a result, on the basis of the big boggy man is out to get them now. In my view the anger over their constitution being ignored is the dangerous one....they are very touchy about that stuff. That is the social aspect.

The economic aspect is pretty obvious. Unemployment skyrocketing, lots of people losing their house and going bankrupt as a result. Millions without healthcare. More and more stories of people losing their job, losing their healthcare as a result and no longer being able to afford vital medication as a result of that (I have an uncle with a kidney problem who is in exactly that situation). The anger over that is palpable and understandable - and without any meaningful welfare state acting as a safety net, that anger gets nasty.

The religious aspect is one you won't see unless you spend time there. People are REALLY hacked off with what they view as what the "religious right" has done to their country. They view the religious right as being the power base that put/kept Bush in power, and are behind a lot of the more intrusive policies that he introduced. I know about this because it is the opinion my parents have (my dad is American; they live over there). There are a lot that agree with them, and from what I can see, most of them are dangerous nutters.

So you can call it paranoia if you want. I know what I see, and I know that if there is another JFK event a lot of Americans are REALLY scared as to what will happen.

[deckster]

Anybody who points to the 'number of gay men' as being indicative of, well, anything, does not deserve to be listened to.

This guy is being firmly filed under 'loon'. A powerful and worrying loon, certainly, and very disturbing if this is indicative of the attitude of 'New Russia', but a loon nonetheless. I trust his ecomonic analyses as much as I trust my cat's.

[PM-Junkie]

WHS.

Russia is a big pile of turd compared to the US.

HTH

Certainly can't argue with that one.