No need to panic after all.

[Sysman]

I guess the people running the massive simulations on super-computers are being told otherwise... of course the worrying thing is people on these boards might have been involved writing the simulation software....

Did anyone see Channel 4's Ascent of Money in November/December?

In the last episode, the presenter described the LTCM (Long Term Capital Management) disaster - basically a couple of Maths whizzes had come up with a fancy formula which couldn't lose, but their model was based on data going back only a piddling 5 years. If they had just gone back 11 years they would have included the 1987 crash, and if they'd gone back 80 years they would have captured the Russian default of 1917.

It's 30 minutes into the programme.

Garbage In, Garbage Out.