Sterling recovers

[AtW]

With Controls.... yes !! Gordon brown dumped controls and look what happened.

And your controls will be based on exactly what, ability to repay given loan at given interest rate?

[Cyberman]

And your controls will be based on exactly what, ability to repay given loan at given interest rate?

Previous controls were that bank lending was based on value of deposits. This link was removed and some banks were lending up to 10 times that value. It does not take a genius to work out what controls we should revert to. Also, borrowers should not be allowed to borrow massive sums without putting in a percentage of their own equity. That is pure commonsense IMO, but it appears that many banks are at last reverting to commonsense.

[Cyberman]

Cyberman is a troll, nobody can really be that dense.

Bagpuss is Gordon Brown's lovechild.

[AtW]

Previous controls were that bank lending was based on value of deposits.

That relates to controls for banks, we are talking about here about personal debt that run out of control due to low interest rates and also lax lending rules.

[Cyberman]

That relates to controls for banks, we are talking about here about personal debt that run out of control due to low interest rates and also lax lending rules.

.. and personal debt is linked to bank lending. Reduce that lending and personal debt will naturally reduce.

[Bagpuss]

Ooops .... 2008 should read 2007. The drop in my area on average for 2008 is 9% according to Land Registry figures, mentioned in my local paper this week. This does not constitute a major crash IMO, and with interest rates now very low, house prices should now be stabilising.

AtW, I predicted a fall of 20% 18 months ago. I expected a fall, unlike some people that think economic cycles do not exist. Not mentioning any particular Chancellors or Prime Ministers of course!! The only thing that has surprised me is that the fall has been so small.

Some of your posts dating back as far as 2007...


October 2008
If I consider that my money could be LOST in Iceland or elsewhere instead, and my house is a 4 bed detached in a very nice area, and has actually risen slightly in value over the last 12 months, very well thanks!!!


SMUG GRIN !!!


Another conflicting post

The Land Registry figures in my area are neutral over the past 12 months.

Prices are down in some areas such as Scotland, but in wealthier areas while people are keeping their jobs they will more or less hold.


Unemployment is low at the moment, and with expected rate cuts and central banks ploughing cheaper funds for banks into the economy to overcome the liquidity crisis, I don't see a major crash, so most borrowers will hopefully be able to 'ride out the storm'.


2007
There will not be a housing crash. Interest rate cuts are now on the cards starting with a .25 per cent cut tomorrow......... a cut of .5% is even being predicted!!

Business bankruptcies were up 8.5% in the first quarter of 2008 so the authorities are well aware that we need a major boost to the economy. The resident house-price doommonger Atw is going to be very disappointed over the next few months as interest rates fall rapidly and liquidity improves as the Bank of England relaxes the purse-strings by lending to the banks against equity.

The result will be only a minor stagnation in house prices over the next few months






Now: The drop in my area on average for 2008 is 9% according to Land Registry
Last Month: The Land Registry figures in my area are neutral over the past 12 months

Now: I predicted a fall of 20% 18 months ago
2007: ...will be only a minor stagnation in house prices over the next few months
There will not be a housing crash

[Cyberman]

I don't see the point you're trying to make there Bagpuss. It seems that those posts are pretty consistent. Keep trying !!

[OwlHoot]

Show me a post where I have been racist. You're a complete idiot.

It's not clear how you're being racist just by mentioning immigration, if that's all pm-junkie is referring to. That accusation sounds like the same knee-jerk reaction every bien-pensant person has whenever some problem is even partly attributed to excessive immigration, whether immigrants are claimed to be morally at fault (as in increased crime for example) or, as in this case, just unwitting indirect causes of the problem.

I thought that blinkered, unthinking attitude was changing these days. But maybe some people are a bit slow to catch on, and of course they imagine everyone must think them a righteous "caring" person just for wheeling out the "racist" mantra to suppress rational argument.

It's obvious uncontrolled immigration *has* played a major part in this downturn, or at least made it worse than it would have been. Yes, bankers have been their usual greedy selves (but also forced to lower themselves to the standards of the most loony lenders or else lose business).

But it wasn't simply through carelessness that Governments in the UK and US and elsewhere let bank lending standards slip, as they would have us believe. There has been a deliberate policy to encourage and even threaten banks to allow more "social lending". And why? Largely on account of uncontrolled immigration, over twenty million in the US over the last few years for example I believe, and huge numbers in the UK and Spain and other Western countries as well. That's obviously a massive amount, and all those guys need houses, which has a knock on effect on prices all up the line for longer-established but still poor residents.

To people like pm-junkie and Bagpuss (who scorned this idea last time I aired it) I say open your eyes!

[AtW]

.. and personal debt is linked to bank lending. Reduce that lending and personal debt will naturally reduce.

I agree that there should have been a limit to lending that is a figure less than 100% of deposits, that would have more or less killed debt culture - I doubt it was realistic to achieve however during last 5-8 years since banks were already lending much more in the past. The responsible course of action therefore must have been higher interest rates to avoid creating house price bubble - BoE's job is to target inflation and houses should have always played a part in it since one can live without plasma TV but living in a cardbox is much harder to do.

[BrilloPad]

It's not clear how you're being racist just by mentioning immigration, if that's all pm-junkie is referring to. That accusation sounds like the same knee-jerk reaction every bien-pensant person has whenever some problem is even partly attributed to excessive immigration, whether immigrants are claimed to be morally at fault (as in increased crime for example) or, as in this case, just unwitting indirect causes of the problem.

I thought that blinkered, unthinking attitude was changing these days. But maybe some people are a bit slow to catch on, and of course they imagine everyone must think them a righteous "caring" person just for wheeling out the "racist" mantra to suppress rational argument.

It's obvious uncontrolled immigration *has* played a major part in this downturn, or at least made it worse than it would have been. Yes, bankers have been their usual greedy selves (but also forced to lower themselves to the standards of the most loony lenders or else lose business).

But it wasn't simply through carelessness that Governments in the UK and US and elsewhere let bank lending standards slip, as they would have us believe. There has been a deliberate policy to encourage and even threaten banks to allow more "social lending". And why? Largely on account of uncontrolled immigration, over twenty million in the US for example I believe, and huge numbers in the UK and Spain and other Western countries as well. That's obviously a massive amount, and all those guys need houses, which has a knock on effect on prices all up the line for longer-established but still poor residents.

To people like pm-junkie and Bagpuss (who scorned this idea last time I aired it) I say open your eyes!

I would have thought immigration would more affect the rental market than buying? Most only stay for a few years then go home?