Maths and climate change (Here, here village idiots)

[sasguru]

http://environment.newscientist.com/...mg18524861.400

It is at this point, however, that uncertainty starts to creep in. Take the grand claim made by some climate researchers that the 1990s were the warmest decade in the warmest century of the past millennium. This claim is embodied in the famous "hockey stick" curve, produced by Michael Mann of the University of Virginia in 1998, based on "proxy" records of past temperature, such as air bubbles in ice cores and growth rings in tree and coral. (see "Hotly contested") Sceptics have attacked the findings over poor methodology used, and their criticism has been confirmed by climate modellers, who have recently recognised that such proxy studies systematically underestimate past variability. As one Met Office scientist put it: "We cannot make claims as to the 1990s being the warmest decade."

There is also room for uncertainty in inferences drawn from the rise in temperature over the past 150 years. The warming itself is real enough, but that doesn't necessarily mean that human activity is to blame. Sceptics say that the warming could be natural, and again they have a point. It is now recognised that up to 40 per cent of the climatic variation since 1890 is probably due to two natural phenomena. The first is solar cycles, which influence the amount of radiation reaching the Earth, and some scientist have argued that increased solar activity can account for most of the warming of the past 150 years. The second is the changing frequency of volcanic eruptions, which produce airborne particles that can shade and hence cool the planet for a year or more.


For the true hard-liners, of course, the scientific consensus must, by definition, be wrong. As far as they are concerned the thousands of scientists behind the IPCC models have either been seduced by their own doom-laden narrative or are engaged in a gigantic conspiracy. They say we are faced with what the philosopher of science Thomas Kuhn called a "paradigm problem".

"Most scientists spend their lives working to shore up the reigning world view - the dominant paradigm - and those who disagree are always much fewer in number," says climatologist Patrick Michaels of the University of Virginia in Charlottesville, a leading proponent of this view. The drive to conformity is accentuated by peer review, which ensures that only papers in support of the paradigm appear in the literature, Michaels says, and by public funding that gives money to research into the prevailing "paradigm of doom". Rebels who challenge prevailing orthodoxies are often proved right, he adds.


HTH

You left out the bit at the end:

"But even if you accept this sceptical view of how science is done, it doesn't mean the orthodoxy is always wrong. We know for sure that human activity is influencing the global environment, even if we don't know by how much. We might still get away with it: the sceptics could be right, and the majority of the world's climate scientists wrong. It would be a lucky break. But how lucky do you feel?"

HTH

[DimPrawn]

You left out the bit at the end:

"But even if you accept this sceptical view of how science is done, it doesn't mean the orthodoxy is always wrong. We know for sure that human activity is influencing the global environment, even if we don't know by how much. We might still get away with it: the sceptics could be right, and the majority of the world's climate scientists wrong. It would be a lucky break. But how lucky do you feel?"

HTH

I feel very lucky, especially since it hasn't warmed very much in the 10 years since the original report said the world would end tomorrow.

I'm sure humans will warm the climate a bit in a few hundred or maybe a 1000 years, but there's more important human issues than CO2.


HTH

[sasguru]

I feel very lucky, especially since it hasn't warmed very much in the 10 years since the original report said the world would end tomorrow.

I'm sure humans will warm the climate a bit in a few hundred or maybe a 1000 years, but there's more important human issues than CO2.


HTH

You keep parotting that line like a retarded idiot.

Here are some facts:

In 2007 many European countries had their warmest January on record. January temperatures in The Netherlands were the highest since measurements were first taken in 1706. England had the warmest April in 348 years of record-keeping there, breaking the record set in 1865 by more than 0.6°C. Then England had its wettest the wettest May to July period since records began in 1766, due to a low jet stream over NW Europe. Spring 2007 also featured the highest temperatures ever recorded by the Swiss Weather Service.
Temperature records for summer heat were broken in south-eastern Europe (Bosnia, Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia, Bulgaria and Greece) in June and July. On 23 July, temperatures reached 45°C in Bulgaria, setting a new record.
In Australia 2007 was the warmest year on record in the Murray Darling Basin & South Australia, New South Wales and Victoria. The Australian annual mean temperature for 2007 was 6th warmest on record (0.67°C above normal). There was intense heat wave that engulfed western and central Russia in May, breaking several temperature records. In Moscow, temperatures on the 28th reached 32.8°C, the highest temperature recorded in May since 1891. (1890/91 saw a very intense El Nino, drought and famine killed millions worldwide, including in the Ukraine.)
In the U.S.A in August more than 100 all-time temperature records were tied or broken either for the highest reading or the warmest low temperature at night. A further 8,000 new heat records were set or tied for specific August dates.
Japan in 06/07 had one of the warmest winters on record and downtown Tokyo went without snow for the first time in 130 years; thermometers in August reached 40.9°C, the highest temperature ever recorded in Japan.
An extreme heat wave affected the South Asian countries of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal & the People’s Republic of China. The Pakistani meteorological department registered a new record maximum temperature of 52 °C.
The Arctic continued to warm, leading to the opening of the Canadian Northwest Passage for the first time in recorded history. On Aug. 17, 2007 the National Snow and Ice Data Centre reported there was less sea ice in the Arctic since records began.

There was a short El Nino beginning in summer 2006 but it had faded to neutral conditions by Feb `07; so that can’t be credited for the above. A strong La Nina formed in May, but these tend to damp down temperatures.
Solar intensity in 2007 was slightly lower than average because 2007 was a minimum in the 11-year solar sunspot cycle, so that can’t be credited either.

[Incognito]

You keep parotting that line like a retarded idiot.

Hmmm, pot calling kettle.

[DimPrawn]

You keep parotting that line like a retarded idiot.

Here are some facts:

In 2007 many European countries had their warmest January on record. January temperatures in The Netherlands were the highest since measurements were first taken in 1706. England had the warmest April in 348 years of record-keeping there, breaking the record set in 1865 by more than 0.6°C. Then England had its wettest the wettest May to July period since records began in 1766, due to a low jet stream over NW Europe. Spring 2007 also featured the highest temperatures ever recorded by the Swiss Weather Service.
Temperature records for summer heat were broken in south-eastern Europe (Bosnia, Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia, Bulgaria and Greece) in June and July. On 23 July, temperatures reached 45°C in Bulgaria, setting a new record.
In Australia 2007 was the warmest year on record in the Murray Darling Basin & South Australia, New South Wales and Victoria. The Australian annual mean temperature for 2007 was 6th warmest on record (0.67°C above normal). There was intense heat wave that engulfed western and central Russia in May, breaking several temperature records. In Moscow, temperatures on the 28th reached 32.8°C, the highest temperature recorded in May since 1891. (1890/91 saw a very intense El Nino, drought and famine killed millions worldwide, including in the Ukraine.)
In the U.S.A in August more than 100 all-time temperature records were tied or broken either for the highest reading or the warmest low temperature at night. A further 8,000 new heat records were set or tied for specific August dates.
Japan in 06/07 had one of the warmest winters on record and downtown Tokyo went without snow for the first time in 130 years; thermometers in August reached 40.9°C, the highest temperature ever recorded in Japan.
An extreme heat wave affected the South Asian countries of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal & the People’s Republic of China. The Pakistani meteorological department registered a new record maximum temperature of 52 °C.
The Arctic continued to warm, leading to the opening of the Canadian Northwest Passage for the first time in recorded history. On Aug. 17, 2007 the National Snow and Ice Data Centre reported there was less sea ice in the Arctic since records began.

There was a short El Nino beginning in summer 2006 but it had faded to neutral conditions by Feb `07; so that can’t be credited for the above. A strong La Nina formed in May, but these tend to damp down temperatures.
Solar intensity in 2007 was slightly lower than average because 2007 was a minimum in the 11-year solar sunspot cycle, so that can’t be credited either.

That's just weather mate. Proves nothing and definately proves nothing about CO2.

I think you going back to school is probably a good idea to be honest.

[Incognito]

I think you going back to school is probably a good idea to be honest.

Hmmm, not sure about that.

[sasguru]

That's just weather mate. Proves nothing and definately proves nothing about CO2.

.

2008 figures are in:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0720215335.htm

So do you still cliam temperatures in the last 10 years are not rising?

[DimPrawn]

2008 figures are in:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0720215335.htm

So do you still cliam temperatures in the last 10 years are not rising?

How many more times. It's the wording.

8th warmest June since 1880. Again what does that prove?

Here's the real deal on temp data

http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com...ast-12-months/

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpre...crut-jan08.png

http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com...-dives-in-may/

http://senseofevents.blogspot.com/20...r-quickly.html

Over the past year, anecdotal evidence for a cooling planet has exploded. China has its coldest winter in 100 years. Baghdad sees its first snow in all recorded history. North America has the most snowcover in 50 years, with places like Wisconsin the highest since record-keeping began. Record levels of Antarctic sea ice, record cold in Minnesota, Texas, Florida, Mexico, Australia, Iran, Greece, South Africa, Greenland, Argentina, Chile -- the list goes on and on.

No more than anecdotal evidence, to be sure. But now, that evidence has been supplanted by hard scientific fact. All four major global temperature tracking outlets (Hadley, NASA's GISS, UAH, RSS) have released updated data. All show that over the past year, global temperatures have dropped precipitously.

A compiled list of all the sources can be seen here. The total amount of cooling ranges from 0.65C up to 0.75C -- a value large enough to wipe out nearly all the warming recorded over the past 100 years. All in one year's time. For all four sources, it's the single fastest temperature change ever recorded, either up or down.

It ain't on average getting any warmer. It's getting colder.

[DimPrawn]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...g-madness.html

This carefully ignores the latest US satellite figures showing temperatures having fallen since 1998, declining in 2007 to a 1983 level - not to mention the newly revised figures for US surface temperatures showing that the 1930s had four of the 10 warmest years of the past century, with the hottest year of all being not 1998, as was previously claimed, but 1934.

HTH

[Diver]

Oh God no more please, we're begging you!

Please please stop