Probability problem for statisticians/mathematicians

[BrilloPad]

Everyone who has posted in this thread is awarded +5 Xeno Geek Points.

Do I get +5 Xeno Geek points per post?

How do they relate to Xeno TW@ points (I think I am on +1?)

[HairyArsedBloke]

They are priceless.

FFS, that’s all I need. More stuff I can’t put a value too. Don’t you think we’ve got enough stuff we don’t know what it’s worth at the moment.

[TheBigYinJames]

Is there a secondary market in these ‘ Xeno geek points’? if so, how do I price them?

Collect 500 and you get a free litre of pretol from Morissons.

[Bagpuss]

Collect 500 and you get a free litre of pretol from Morissons.

It's going up so fast these days they can't even be bothered to get the letters in the right order

[Xenophon]

Do I get +5 Xeno Geek points per post?

How do they relate to Xeno TW@ points (I think I am on +1?)

No, just +5, greedy guts.



There is no such thing as Xeno TW@ Points and they have never been awarded. Cranium made that up. I have referred to him as being a TW@, but never awarded him any points.

His signature is a lie and he is a cheat and a charlatan and he should hang his homophobic head in shame.

[Xenophon]

FFS, that’s all I need. More stuff I can’t put a value too. Don’t you think we’ve got enough stuff we don’t know what it’s worth at the moment.

Sorry HAB.

I feel your pain.

[HairyArsedBloke]

Collect 500 and you get a free litre of pretol from Morissons.

Splendid! Just like Tesco club card points – I worked out that if I spend 30,000 squidlies with them I can get enough points converted into air miles to get to America. I think I’ll have to re-do that one, it was when oil was at 50 bucks.

[BrilloPad]

In reliability problems such as this, aren’t you supposed to use the Poisson distribution?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution

[EternalOptimist]

If it requires 30 space shuttle flights to build the space station, and the probability of success for each flight is 98%, what is the probability of at least one failure in the sequence of 30 flights?

This seemed to be a straightforward case of a Binomial distribution to me with:

n=30
r=1
p=0.02
q=0.98

Plugging into the Binomial formula gives me a probability of 0.333.

However, according to NASA it is 0.888.
And another text book gives 0.4545.

Can anyone explain the right answer?

you guys are missing one factor

0.45 is the correct answer, but each visit to the ISS consists of TWO trips, one there and one back.

hence the doubling of the chances of a failure

[Diver]

FFS, that’s all I need. More stuff I can’t put a value too. Don’t you think we’ve got enough stuff we don’t know what it’s worth at the moment.

Chuck em on ebay

HTH