Brown will build out the bubble

[sasguru]

Look, I'm not interested in the whys and wherefores of the BTL market. They are beside the point. Let's look at facts.

Net migration into the UK (not just Poles) has averaged 166,000 a year over the last 7 years (ONS: International Migration Series MN no. 31 and News Release 2 November 2006). That number is rising rapidly following the admission of the new EU members from the east. And this is just the migrants that we know about.

One simple question Alexei, or sas: where are these new people living?

Unless they all sleeping rough, they must be in some sort of bricks and mortar somewhere.

I'm guessing most of these immigrants end up in London and the South east or big cities up north. How does this explain prices rises in remote Scotland?
Or the price rises in many European countries (e.g. Holland and France) who don't have a huge influx.

[AtW]

Don't know Llaneli - they have Rhossili Bay nearby in Gower, and it is the best place I have seen in the UK, might go there again (4th time) this year.

[Hart-floot]

No-one has ever answered the question ..., if we have a housing shortage why are rents not going up?

The BTL's are starting to realise this too In the area of London i live(reasonably nice outer burb) rents have remained static for the past 3 to 4 years if not longer. The yields are so low now you'd be better off putting your money into National Savings.

The problem is one of not enough property to buy. 1st time buyers hit because demand fromthe BTL's have priced them out of the market. People trading up hit because not enough family homes available now. In London, Ken & Co only allow 1 or 2 bedroom flats to be built unfortunately these are not the sort of property people aspire to live in once they have families or want a bit of space

All of this is exacerbated by the foreign influx into London. Apart from the Poles there are 400K French, 300K Spanish etc etc who have come to London in the past 10 years plus all the non-domicied residents Gordon loves, the unknown amount of illegals and visa over-stayers, dodgy marriage rackets, people refused asylum who never leave etc etc. All of this is adding to huge demand for housing.

[Euro-commuter]

I'm guessing most of these immigrants end up in London and the South east or big cities up north. How does this explain prices rises in remote Scotland?
Or the price rises in many European countries (e.g. Holland and France) who don't have a huge influx.

In remote Scotland much of it is due to English people cashing in their gains from a house down south, and buying a house up there with pots left over; or a B&B; or another business like the Post Office/GeneralStore/cafe/craft shop etc.

In most of the towns on the west coast of the Northern Highlands (i.e. north of the canal that runs from In verness down to Fort William, the census shows more than 30% of the population born outside Scotland. In one of my favourite towns, Lochcarron, it is 38%. They are not Poles, they are English. Can't say I blame them, though.

But you can see it in the detail of the house prices, if you know the area: up to 50% more for a good loch or sea view, as against the identical house with a partial view. That's a specific kind of market at work there, locals quite like a good view but will not pay a 50% premium for it. But if it's for a B&B, or holiday letting, that is important. And of course if you're just retiring and selling up a house in SE England for 3 times the price of any house remotely similar in your favourite destination, why not have the best?

[scooterscot]

I agree with Euro-commuter on this aspect. Used to live outside Oban (look it up) the house next door (about acre between us) was sold to a couple from devon then proceeded to buy two sheep, 8 hens and a couple of sheep dogs to round them up, I always smiled when walking past as the burning the dirty hay (again), they waved back, I thought numties but whatever pleases i guess Our cat kept attempting to kill the hens... under my carful training.

[wendigo100]

I agree with Euro-commuter on this aspect. Used to live outside Oban (look it up) the house next door (about acre between us) was sold to a couple from devon then proceeded to buy two sheep, 8 hens and a couple of sheep dogs to round them up, I always smiled when walking past as the burning the dirty hay (again), they waved back, I thought numties but whatever pleases i guess Our cat kept attempting to kill the hens... under my carful training.

Two sheep dogs to round up two sheep?

[Euro-commuter]

Two sheep dogs to round up two sheep?

That's the number of dogs you need for any number of sheep.

[wendigo100]

That's the number of dogs you need for any number of sheep.

Unless you're on One Man And His Dog.

[Euro-commuter]

Unless you're on One Man And His Dog.

These are star dogs (and men). Normally you do need 2 dogs, though one of them doesn't need to do anything but stand there.

[wendigo100]

That's the number of dogs you need for any number of sheep.

I've just remembered some friends of mine back in the eighties, and they had two sheepdogs.

As it happens they weren't farmers and they kept zero sheep. But you are spot on - two dogs for any number.

I'm just glad it isn't compulsory.