stock market crash

[scooterscot]

I'm sure someone will try to wrap a narrative around the current stock market behaviour no doubt related to the virus and of course nothing to do with the massive credit card debt the US keeps affording itself or the worthless MBS products being dumped on the market.

I'm more concerned by the chart, it may be turning into a 'L-shaped' recovery rather than a 'V-shaped' recovery (as had done twice previously). An L-shaped recovery would fit the story the chart is telling us, no recovery until 2024. And while 4 years may sound forever, we have to remember we've just gone through 12-years of insane central bank pumping of the markets, which everyone loved the effects of. Sooner or late, all debts must be paid.

The market drops another 50% without a sweat.

[wattaj]

...Sooner or late, all debts must be paid...

One can say that, but... with so much debt, so many dead, I'm expecting a feckin' huge debt right-off in order to reset the bases.

[scooterscot]

Something tells me our lenders are not the forgiving type. Must be that special relationship.

Britain will settle its World War II debts to the US and Canada when it pays two final instalments before the close of 2006, the Treasury has said. The payments of $83.25m (£42.5m) to the US and US$22.7m (£11.6m) to Canada are the last of 50 instalments since 1950.

[wattaj]

Something tells me our lenders are not the forgiving type. Must be that special relationship.

Ah yes, but now it's the USA that will have the crippling debt burden. I would not be surprised by an internationally agreed debt write-down once the dust has settled.

[BrilloPad]

One can say that, but... with so much debt, so many dead, I'm expecting a feckin' huge debt right-off in order to reset the bases.

It will never happen! There will be hyper-inflation(*) instead....

(*) debt write off by stealth.

[scooterscot]

Coronavirus: Record number of Americans file for unemployment

2 months ago Trump is boasting about his strong beautiful healthy economy & stock market...so much better than Obama's. Now 3.3 million on the dole in only 7 days!

This is huge. Yield curve super inverted now. If this doesn't start a depression, I've no idea what will.


How long I wonder until we see interest rates increasing... (I can hear them behind me - it'll never happen!)

The number of Americans filing for unemployment has surged to a record high as the economy goes into lockdown due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Nearly 3.3 million people registered to claim jobless benefits for the week ended 21 March, according to Department of Labor data.


That is nearly five times more than the previous record of 695,000 set in 1982.


The rush overwhelmed many state offices handling the claims and signalled an abrupt end to a decade of expansion.


The shift comes as officials in states across the country close restaurants, bars, cinemas, hotels and gyms in an effort to slow the spread of the virus.
Analysts said the situation could be even worse than the data currently shows, noting the reports of jammed call lines and crashing state websites. Some kinds of workers, such as people working part-time, do not qualify.




"I've been writing about the US economy ... since 1996, and this is the single worst data point I've seen, by far," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist of Pantheon Economics.

Nationally, the figures are nearly five times higher than the worst point of the 2008 financial crisis.


In Illinois, weekly jobless claims increased 10-fold. They more than quintupled in New York and more than tripled in California, which were among the earliest and biggest states to impose restrictions. The effects were even more dramatic in smaller states.


While some retailers, such as Walmart and Amazon, have announced plans to hire, economists said that will not make up for the jobs lost. As incomes evaporate, the economic damage is likely to snowball, since consumer spending accounts for the majority of the US economy.


"Once the risks around the virus pass, it will not be just easy to flip the switch and employment returns to pre-crisis levels," Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM wrote on Twitter. "That is not how this is going to work and will require more aid."

source: Coronavirus: Record number of Americans file for unemployment

[scooterscot]

1000 points gain in a few days. Now the big question, we've rallied to the previous support, if we push through it tomorrow as is suggested by the Dragonfly candlestick, we're in hay & sunshine modus (doesn't it feel like it?!). However if it is a false signal and we're rejected from the 21-day moving average (black line) - then this was a technical bull trap and true capitulation is in the post.

[SeededLoaf]

1000 points gain in a few days. Now the big question, we've rallied to the previous support, if we push through it tomorrow as is suggested by the Dragonfly candlestick, we're in hay & sunshine modus (doesn't it feel like it?!). However if it is a false signal and we're rejected from the 21-day moving average (black line) - then this was a technical bull trap and true capitulation is in the post.

It's a bull trap. A combination of a $2trillion stimulus and Trump kidding people they'll be back to normal by easter egg time.

[Scruff]

1000 points gain in a few days. Now the big question, we've rallied to the previous support, if we push through it tomorrow as is suggested by the Dragonfly candlestick, we're in hay & sunshine modus (doesn't it feel like it?!). However if it is a false signal and we're rejected from the 21-day moving average (black line) - then this was a technical bull trap and true capitulation is in the post.

Dead Cat Bounce

[BlueSharp]

Dead cat bounce now the US is leading CoronaVirus cases, they won't have the shut down ability of China or the Health Services of Europe. The phrase when the US sneezes the world catches a cold has never been truer.

Compound that with cases creeping up in China as well.