stock market crash

[scooterscot]

September 4th - another glorious day in corps

Two days of market trading in the red - you know what that means for next week don't yah?!

[tomtomagain]

So what's the general consesus on what's going on and the short to medium future?

The Oxford Vaccine has started it's final large scale trials in the US this week.

There are already large-scale trials running in the UK and Brazil which should be coming to a close soon.

If, and it's a big if, the vaccine is proved to be effective we'll see a sharp rise in markets globally. Once one effective vaccine is proven we'll know that COVID can be cured and will taken a large step towards beating this wretched pandemic.

Markets always over-react, both in the positive and negative directions. So I'd expect it to rise sharply, close to or exceeding pre-pandemic levels. However longer-term the economic consequences will act as a drag on the markets for most of 2021.

If the vaccine fails .... then the FTSE will stuck between 5k - 6k for many months to come.

[BABABlackSheep]

So what's the general consesus on what's going on and the short to medium future?

Please, scooty, don't bother replying.

There has been a massive run on Tech companies which has boosted the S&P500 and especially the NASDAQ.

There was always going to be temporary fall. My portfolio is around 8% down this week, but that’s still over 40% up this year.

My core holding SMT for example has been in the papers every bloody day and regularly one of the top 1-3 most viewed and traded shares on Hargreaves Landsdown.

It’s been deliberately dropped to push out weak holders. It has a share price of 850p but a NAV of 950, which is almost unheard off.

I’ll buy into any drops as that’s my strategy.

Also agree with tomtomagain..covid is the game changer.

In my opinion, anyone would be stupid to bet large lump sums on market movement. Vaccine comes, the markets will fly, pictures of people dying on hospital floors again, and crash.

The later is bulltulip anyway imo, as the virus has weakened...let’s see.

[scooterscot]

Vaccine comes, the markets will fly,

No. The markets only fly when the FED signals it is safe to do so. That's exactly how they've worked since 2008.

The market will sink when they suggest the funny money supply is no more and confidence goes. Nothing to do with Covid. But it is great for the papers, I understand that. And the retail investors lap it up. Swings and roundabouts.

[tomtomagain]

No. The markets only fly when the FED signals it is safe to do so. That's exactly how they've worked since 2008.

The market will sink when they suggest the funny money supply is no more and confidence goes. Nothing to do with Covid. But it is great for the papers, I understand that. And the retail investors lap it up. Swings and roundabouts.

The "funny" money supply isn't going to dry up though. More likely it is going to increase, for example, France launched a €100B economic package this week.

Whoever wins the US election is likely to push another massive stimulus out of the door. Other countries are bound to follow.

Everyone thinks that Rushi is going to hike taxes in the UK in November. I don't. It's more likely that he'll splurge a whole lot more on debt and delay the tax-clobbering until at least April 2021 when the UK is through BREXIT and the state of the economy is more certain.

Markets move on events. A COVID vaccine would be viewed as a massively positive step forward. All those holiday and airline firms, which today look like dead-men walking, would suddenly look like a bargain.

[tomtomagain]

Slightly Off-topic :

Does anyone on this board know how vaccine trials work and care to explain?

I understand they do a Phase I, II & III clinical trials checking the safety and then the efficacy with larger and larger groups of people.

But how confident are they in the first place that the candidate vaccine they put forward into clinical trials will actually work? I assume they've done plenty of testing and rejected a whole bunch of candidates that showed no promise at an earlier stage in the process.

[BR14]

Slightly Off-topic :

Does anyone on this board know how vaccine trials work and care to explain?

No.

[tomtomagain]

No.

No, you don't know, or No, you don't want to explain?

[BABABlackSheep]

No. The markets only fly when the FED signals it is safe to do so. That's exactly how they've worked since 2008.

The market will sink when they suggest the funny money supply is no more and confidence goes. Nothing to do with Covid. But it is great for the papers, I understand that. And the retail investors lap it up. Swings and roundabouts.

?

Just printing money..who cares. Long as inflation is under control, print away.

It’s not going to end for a long time yet.

[scooterscot]

The "funny" money supply isn't going to dry up though. More likely it is going to increase, for example, France launched a €100B economic package this week.

Whoever wins the US election is likely to push another massive stimulus out of the door. Other countries are bound to follow.

Everyone thinks that Rushi is going to hike taxes in the UK in November. I don't. It's more likely that he'll splurge a whole lot more on debt and delay the tax-clobbering until at least April 2021 when the UK is through BREXIT and the state of the economy is more certain.

Markets move on events. A COVID vaccine would be viewed as a massively positive step forward. All those holiday and airline firms, which today look like dead-men walking, would suddenly look like a bargain.

A loss of confidence will trigger the collapse - does not matter at that point if the FED fills the system with funny money, they'll only destroy the dollar quicker than expected and the US most certainly does not want that. They want to retain some world reserve status.

Taxes have to go up. Then comes massive deflation. There is no hiding the loss of income to the treasury when ties with the UK's largest trading partner are throw into chaos. Taxes will have to increase internally to make up the loss.

The rich created the mess, the poor pay for it. Same old same old.