Conservative poll lead over Labour narrows to just one point

[jamesbrown]

If Labour can erode a 16 point Tory lead in as many days then he's unstoppable.

Go Labour, save Britain from the elite.

These polls are complete and utter smeg. I'll happily come back and eat my words if I'm wrong, but there's overwhelming evidence that the stable of polls that use self-reported turnout (YouGov, Survation etc.) are off by miles. They make heroic assumptions about youth turnout that would be completely unprecedented, and are currently unsupported by anecdotal evidence. By way of contrast, the polls that use historical precedent and demographics to filter turnout (ComRes, ICM etc.) are still showing a substantial lead for the Tories. When the polls are this far apart, you need to look at the substance of what they're telling you, and it's all about youth turnout. Are 80% of 18-40yr olds going to turnout? If they do, it will be closer to what YouGov and Survation are saying. They won't.

There's a ton of anecodotal evidence from both parties that is supporting the above analysis. For example, see here for an unvarnished assessment from within Labour.

Labour are going to lose on Thursday, and they are going to lose big. Certainly, the polls have tightened; this always happens, but it has been a substantial and consistent tightening. Labour are not going to lose as badly as many would've predicted at the start of the campaign (although that always seemed unlikely). However, they absolutely are going to lose, and resoundingly so.

80+ seat Tory majority, I predict. I hope I'm wrong; I'd prefer Mayhem to get a good kicking and receive only a small majority.

We'll see who's right on Thursday PM

[PurpleGorilla]

Exactly. On EU referendum night didn't the Remainers all happily trot off to bed at 10pm, having been assured they had the whole thing safely in the bag?

(I didn't stay up for that, as I was gloomily under the same impression.)

I seem to recall there wasn't an exit poll.

I stayed up for Sunderland, and well, couldn't stop from watching history unfold. Amazing night. Gives me goose bumps.

[TestMangler]

I seem to recall there wasn't an exit poll.

I stayed up for Sunderland, and well, couldn't stop from watching history unfold. Amazing night. Gives me goose bumps.

It was a referendum, not an election.

[jamesbrown]

I seem to recall there wasn't an exit poll.

Exit polls work by targeting marginals seats and comparing against a baseline (i.e. the last comparable election). There's no baseline with a referendum.

[DallasDad]

The BBC exit poll at 10pm on Thursday will tell you all you need to know.

And the graphics used may well have been created by tiny a little outfit called Idonix working out of an old Bank in Much Wenlock High St.
IDONIX > What We've Done

[Big Blue Plymouth]

These polls are complete and utter smeg. I'll happily come back and eat my words if I'm wrong, but there's overwhelming evidence that the stable of polls that use self-reported turnout (YouGov, Survation etc.) are off by miles. They make heroic assumptions about youth turnout that would be completely unprecedented, and are currently unsupported by anecdotal evidence. By way of contrast, the polls that use historical precedent and demographics to filter turnout (ComRes, ICM etc.) are still showing a substantial lead for the Tories. When the polls are this far apart, you need to look at the substance of what they're telling you, and it's all about youth turnout. Are 80% of 18-40yr olds going to turnout? If they do, it will be closer to what YouGov and Survation are saying. They won't.

There's a ton of anecodotal evidence from both parties that is supporting the above analysis. For example, see here for an unvarnished assessment from within Labour.

Labour are going to lose on Thursday, and they are going to lose big. Certainly, the polls have tightened; this always happens, but it has been a substantial and consistent tightening. Labour are not going to lose as badly as many would've predicted at the start of the campaign (although that always seemed unlikely). However, they absolutely are going to lose, and resoundingly so.

80+ seat Tory majority, I predict. I hope I'm wrong; I'd prefer Mayhem to get a good kicking and receive only a small majority.

We'll see who's right on Thursday PM

It's supposed to be pissing down with rain in much of the country on Thursday. Wonder if this is likely to deter a particular age group more than any other?

[chopper]

It's supposed to be pissing down with rain in much of the country on Thursday. Wonder if this is likely to deter a particular age group more than any other?

It has been said that poor weather deters Labour voters.

[jamesbrown]

It's supposed to be pissing down with rain in much of the country on Thursday. Wonder if this is likely to deter a particular age group more than any other?

Yes, no, or maybe. Opinions vary. Here's a recent one that suggests no impact on overall turnout.

[VectraMan]

TAre 80% of 18-40yr olds going to turnout? If they do, it will be closer to what YouGov and Survation are saying. They won't.

The pollsters got Brexit wrong because a couple of million people who don't usually vote unexpectedly turned up and voted Leave, which they probably wouldn't have done had it not looked close. They smelled the victory and the way the polls narrowed from "no chance" to "close but probably not" must have influenced the result. And we see the same thing here: Corbyn's gone from pretty much being a laughing stock 6 weeks ago to looking like a distinct possibility and maybe that gets the traditionally non-voting young to see that they might be able to make a difference for once. Not least because they were screwed over by the oldies on Brexit.

All of which is a good argument for banning polls and simply having the bloody vote.

[shaunbhoy]

maybe that gets the traditionally non-voting young to see that they might be able to make a difference for once.

Not if it is raining and they have their lunches to snapchat around their virtuous circle of facebook friends.

HTH