The 2014 Washington Post*article titled “Could Non-Citizens Decide The November Election?” was written by Jesse Richman and David Earnest, two associate professors of Political Science and International Studies at Old Dominion University. Their research relied upon data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES).
This paper documents how low-level measurement error for survey questions generally agreed to be highly reliable can lead to large prediction errors in large sample surveys, such as the CCES. The example for this analysis is Richman, Chattha, and Earnest (2014), which presents a biased estimate of the rate at which non-citizens voted in recent elections. The results, we show, are completely accounted for by very low frequency measurement error; further, the likely percent of non-citizen voters in recent US elections is 0.
Was the source of the 3 million illegals number the tweets from Greg 'I believe we could stop 99% of the nonsense by bringing dueling back.' Phillips? You'd think he would release his workings rather than just the headline.
And evidence for 'tens of thousands of dead people voting'? Another tweet?
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