Brexit tax

[diseasex]

I dunno, but I'd pay for a Norwegian style relationship any day of the week.

you won't get it, you are not Norway. norway never joined EU, thats one, it's way smaller (and not one of 2 biggest economies in europe), got only 5mln ppl, is one of the richest country in the world.
EU will try to punish Britain for leaving ,as an example. So before things become OK again it will be good 10 years by which time we will be all worse off.

[Old Greg]

Not interested, sorry.

He likes not interested.

[The_Equalizer]

FFS.
Yes with Brexit there would be no economic downside whatever and we'd soon become the richest country in the world..

Not the point. You were sneering at the figure of £250 million a week compared to the the UK's overall expenditure. I just was illustrating that it is a meaningful sum to most.

[DodgyAgent]

I accept the argument about a short-term economic cost, but I know a thing or two about mathematical modeling, and I simply don't buy any of these forecasts about long-term economic costs, because I broadly understand the models they are using. To begin with, there is no historical precedent, so the models are revealing only insofar as they introduce assumptions that connect outputs to inputs and model parameters. Unfortunately, the inputs are politically driven (e.g. 6% reduction in GDP or assumptions about trade barriers), and the outputs are rarely that useful to the average citizen (e.g. distributing GDP across households). Rubbish in, rubbish out. It's essentially a vehicle for propaganda, and I think the average voter understands that (they understand that these forecasts are typically very wrong, even months in advance for relatively well-understood variables, let alone for decades in advance and variables that are very poorly understood).

More fundamentally, it's very difficult to know how the UK would respond to a Brexit. In other words, it may be useful to explore scenarios, but these scenarios themselves are very difficult to quantify, and the models cannot account for the legislative response to Brexit or the future success/failure of the Eurozone, only relatively narrow (albeit uncertain) predictors, such as trade barriers. The models are structurally flawed. For example, what is the relative cost of EU legislation to SMEs and their ability to innovate vs. the benefits of existing market access over any new deal? How would we fare inside vs. outside the EU to a collapse of the Eurozone? There are too many unanswerable questions in the long-term.

However, I do completely agree that our strongest single argument is w/r to reduced immigration. The same OECD report points to a reduction in inward migration of 85,000 over the forecast period (equally debatable). The main difficulty with this argument, and why I think the Bremainers will win, is that it's a ~40% argument. It turns off almost as many undecided voters as it turns on. To get 50%+, a sufficient number of undecided voters need to be willing to sacrifice the short-term economic costs for self-determination and our long-term prospects, which cannot be modeled mathematically (credibly).

That is brilliantly written and argued. Despite the rantings of the pro establishment lobby I base my own judgement on history and human behaviour. This suggests that the EU will eventually become an unaccountable superstate with no real democratic accountability that will simply exploit the people of Europe for the benefit of the rich and powerful.
I hasten to add that as soon as I become a member of this group I will be voting "remain" and you plebs can keep paying me my 25%

[Old Greg]

That is brilliantly written and argued. Despite the rantings of the pro establishment lobby I base my own judgement on history and human behaviour. This suggests that the EU will eventually become an unaccountable superstate with no real democratic accountability that will simply exploit the people of Europe for the benefit of the rich and powerful.

And that's why you're voting "Remain".

[DodgyAgent]

And that's why you're voting "Remain".

Just amended my post. My ambition is to join twatguru at the top of the establishment

[sasguru]

Just amended my post. My ambition is to join twatguru at the top of the establishment

The "top of the establishment" has never had much of a requirement for brains, but even so, you don't make the cut. Sorry.

[DimPrawn]

The "top of the establishment" has never had much of a requirement for brains, but even so, you don't make the cut. Sorry.

Can I get in with some wit, gusto and a big dollop of Billy Bullshiit?

[DodgyAgent]

The "top of the establishment" has never had much of a requirement for brains, but even so, you don't make the cut. Sorry.

Whereas there will always be a job for aresewipers like you

[sasguru]

Can I get in with some wit, gusto and a big dollop of Billy Bullshiit?

Correct, welcome to the club