Brexit tax

[Old Greg]

It's still £200-ish per year for every man, woman and child in the UK. If you could knock £800 off a family's tax bill a year I'm sure they'd jump at the chance.

What will the annual cost be for a Norwegian or Swiss style relationship with the EU?

[sasguru]

It's still £200-ish per year for every man, woman and child in the UK. If you could knock £800 off a family's tax bill a year I'm sure they'd jump at the chance.

FFS.
Yes with Brexit there would be no economic downside whatever and we'd soon become the richest country in the world..

[diseasex]

What will the annual cost be for a Norwegian or Swiss style relationship with the EU?

you're 14x size of norway. It's like comparing how much better off or worse was Estonia with you.

These points of brexiters are getting retarded tbh

[Mordac]

According to the OECD

EU referendum: OECD warning of 'Brexit tax' sparks row - BBC News





Not surprisingly the Kippers have dismissed it all as fear mongering by The Establishment (TM):



Failed politicians like Farage?

Surely to be considered to have failed, one would have had to have previously been considered a success?

[jamesbrown]

Which is about 0.01% of total weekly Uk expenditure.
You see I think remain will win, just, because in spite of the dumbing down that has taken place over the decades, the Brexiteers always shoot themselves in the foot with their poor/irrelevant numbers and maths.

I accept the argument about a short-term economic cost, but I know a thing or two about mathematical modeling, and I simply don't buy any of these forecasts about long-term economic costs, because I broadly understand the models they are using. To begin with, there is no historical precedent, so the models are revealing only insofar as they introduce assumptions that connect outputs to inputs and model parameters. Unfortunately, the inputs are politically driven (e.g. 6% reduction in GDP or assumptions about trade barriers), and the outputs are rarely that useful to the average citizen (e.g. distributing GDP across households). Rubbish in, rubbish out. It's essentially a vehicle for propaganda, and I think the average voter understands that (they understand that these forecasts are typically very wrong, even months in advance for relatively well-understood variables, let alone for decades in advance and variables that are very poorly understood).

More fundamentally, it's very difficult to know how the UK would respond to a Brexit. In other words, it may be useful to explore scenarios, but these scenarios themselves are very difficult to quantify, and the models cannot account for the legislative response to Brexit or the future success/failure of the Eurozone, only relatively narrow (albeit uncertain) predictors, such as trade barriers. The models are structurally flawed. For example, what is the relative cost of EU legislation to SMEs and their ability to innovate vs. the benefits of existing market access over any new deal? How would we fare inside vs. outside the EU to a collapse of the Eurozone? There are too many unanswerable questions in the long-term.

However, I do completely agree that our strongest single argument is w/r to reduced immigration. The same OECD report points to a reduction in inward migration of 85,000 over the forecast period (equally debatable). The main difficulty with this argument, and why I think the Bremainers will win, is that it's a ~40% argument. It turns off almost as many undecided voters as it turns on. To get 50%+, a sufficient number of undecided voters need to be willing to sacrifice the short-term economic costs for self-determination and our long-term prospects, which cannot be modeled mathematically (credibly).

[Old Greg]

Surely to be considered to have failed, one would have had to have previously been considered a success?

No.

[DimPrawn]

What will the weekly cost be for a Norwegian or Swiss style relationship with the EU?

I dunno, but I'd pay for a Norwegian style relationship any day of the week.

[Old Greg]

I dunno, but I'd pay for a Norwegian style relationship any day of the week.

The Swiss will use his bilateral muscle to enter by the back door.

[The_Equalizer]

What will the annual cost be for a Norwegian or Swiss style relationship with the EU?

I was pointing out that figure of £250 million/week was meaningful, not whether the figure is correct in the wider context. I appreciate Norway's cost of being in the EEA is close to the same cost of full membership. Still, while we are at it, the people of Norway steadfastly refuse to join the EU. Make of that what you will.

[DimPrawn]

The Swiss will use his bilateral muscle to enter by the back door.

Not interested, sorry.