So who on CUK is voting Tory?

[SunnyInHades]

Margaret Thatcher

Like her or loathe her, that was a woman with balls.
Her take on Europe..

https://youtu.be/Tetk_ayO1x4

[FatLazyContractor]

Only if the tories only need one seat for a majority

Serious question, how are the Lib Dems fairing in Englandshire ? They're f**ked up in Jockland. Will they retain much in England ? Enough of a block to be involved in a coalition ?

They are assuming that they will be in a position where parties will beg them to form a coalition, when the reality says they will hardly win a few seats in the bogs.

[TestMangler]

I'm only looking at it really from a betting point of view and I'm contemplating a punt on a very, very slim Tory majority.

[barrydidit]

I'm only looking at it really from a betting point of view and I'm contemplating a punt on a very, very slim Tory majority.

According to the betting markets, the chances of the various outcomes, as implied by the latest odds from Betfair, are as follows: Lab minority: 30.4% - Con minority: 16.2% - Con-Lib Dem coalition: 22.8% - Con majority: 8% - Lab-Lib Dem coalition: 12% - Any other government/coalition: 8.4% - Lab majority: 0.7% - Con-Ukip coalition: 1.4%.

I’m not sure how much those numbers make sense, but in ‘follow the money’ style, I’m sure there’s some truth in there.

[TestMangler]

I’m not sure how much those numbers make sense, but in ‘follow the money’ style, I’m sure there’s some truth in there.

In general, I'd agree. Major's election win wasn't polled accurately and neither were the SNP minority win or majority win. I bet on them though, correctly

[Eirikur]

Do you mind if I ask where you're from? Just interested, that's all.

Netherlands

[TheFaQQer]

Only if the tories only need one seat for a majority

Serious question, how are the Lib Dems fairing in Englandshire ? They're f**ked up in Jockland. Will they retain much in England ? Enough of a block to be involved in a coalition ?

Depends on who you believe. The optimists within the party are saying that they could well get 30-35 seats and if Cameron does well, that would just about give them the possibility of having some influence (although Cameron says he'll only go into coalition if there is a promise of a referendum regardless, LD say they won't go into a coalition if there is a promise of a referendum regardless but would be OK if there were more powers going to Brussels).

Pessimists / realists in the party are suggesting it could be as low as 9 seats, including losing Sheffield Hallam and getting rid of Clegg in the process. Ashcroft's polling suggests that Clegg will lose his seat - it's going to come down to how many Tories vote tactically in that ward to keep him there though.

[TheFaQQer]

Serious question, how are the Lib Dems fairing in Englandshire ? They're f**ked up in Jockland. Will they retain much in England ? Enough of a block to be involved in a coalition ?

Election Forecast (3rd May) - Con 278, Lab 271, LD 26
May2015 (3rd May) - Con 273, Lab 269, LD 27
YouGov (3rd May) - Con 283, Lab 261, LD 32
Elections Etc (3rd May) - Con 290, Lab 258, LD 25
Guardian (3rd May) - Con 274, Lab 269, LD 27

So none of the recent polls give any chance of there being a two-party coalition involving the Lib Dems. Actually, none of them have a two party coalition at all - May2015 and Guardian suggest you could get LabSNP if you factor in Sinn Fein not turning up so you'd only need 323 majority.

[Batcher]

Election Forecast (3rd May) - Con 278, Lab 271, LD 26
May2015 (3rd May) - Con 273, Lab 269, LD 27
YouGov (3rd May) - Con 283, Lab 261, LD 32
Elections Etc (3rd May) - Con 290, Lab 258, LD 25
Guardian (3rd May) - Con 274, Lab 269, LD 27

So none of the recent polls give any chance of there being a two-party coalition involving the Lib Dems. Actually, none of them have a two party coalition at all - May2015 and Guardian suggest you could get LabSNP if you factor in Sinn Fein not turning up so you'd only need 323 majority.

It's very unlikely that Sinn Fein will turn up but, if they did, it would be to support the SNP push Labour over the line. They see the SNP/Plaid as allies in their quest for a united Ireland.

[shaunbhoy]

MercladUK has no reputation

Yes....and an intellect to match!

I shall unashamedly be voting Tory again. As someone once said "If You Are Not a Liberal at 25, You Have No Heart. If You Are Not a Conservative at 35 You Have No Brain"