Eurozone crisis

[MicrosoftBob]

At what point will these socialists realise that money does not grow on trees?

When they run out of other peoples money to spend

[Eirikur]

Seems like the Euro Crisis is coming to a head. My prediction is Greece defaults. and exits the Euro. This is the best thing for Greece as the Bailout programme has decimated their economy. However this will start the unraveling of the European project and soon Italy, Spain etc will follow.

Their economy was growing again and the new government will just bring it to a halt again. All Greeks are either taking the euros form their bank accounts as we speak or transferring them to accounts abroad, as the new currency will immediately devaluate, resulting in people losing their money if they don't keep cash (or oversees) euros.
Greece should never have been allowed in the Euro in the first place, but now they are a Grexit is the worst for both Greece and the countries that contributed to their bailout as they won't see much of their money back

[scooterscot]

Their economy was growing again and the new government will just bring it to a halt again. All Greeks are either taking the euros form their bank accounts as we speak or transferring them to accounts abroad, as the new currency will immediately devaluate, resulting in people losing their money if they don't keep cash (or oversees) euros.
Greece should never have been allowed in the Euro in the first place, but now they are a Grexit is the worst for both Greece and the countries that contributed to their bailout as they won't see much of their money back

Goldman Sachs should be hung high and dry for helping them Greeks cooking the books.

Whilst everyone is talking about Greece exit and the change, I wonder how many are consider the change that would happen to the EU if they did exit?

I don't think the Greeks will exit. They don't want to. The Germans certainly don't want them to.

[Unix]

Goldman Sachs should be hung high and dry for helping them Greeks cooking the books.

Whilst everyone is talking about Greece exit and the change, I wonder how many are consider the change that would happen to the EU if they did exit?

I don't think the Greeks will exit. They don't want to. The Germans certainly don't want them to.

Whether they want to exit or not doesn't matter. If I was having problems paying my mortgage because I lost my job and my wife borrowed loads on credit cards, and the bank wouldn't consider letting me renegotiate the terms of the mortgage, then I would be forced out. I might not want to leave and my bank might not want me to leave either.

[Lightwave]

Whether they want to exit or not doesn't matter. If I was having problems paying my mortgage because I lost my job and my wife borrowed loads on credit cards, and the bank wouldn't consider letting me renegotiate the terms of the mortgage, then I would be forced out. I might not want to leave and my bank might not want me to leave either.

I think the model may be more like a small bankrupt company being taken over by a big profitable company....

I strongly suspect Greece will emerge more tightly bound into Europe rather than less.
Possibly being directly managed at operational level by the troika?

But if they do leave the euro, I think they may have to leave the EU....

[NickyBoy]

This is a lot of noise about nothing from an economic point of view.

The European markets have already altered their prices to reflect the assumption of a grexit. That's why good news about the negotiations causes a spike in the markets and bad news negates that spike without dropping lower than the original amount - the exit is now the assumed baseline.

Greece would actually be running a surplus without the interest payments on its debt, so defaulting and wiping those out wouldn't cause it significant problems. A country running a surplus is surprisingly resilient to economic attacks, so its unlikely to 'Do an Argentina' when external groups refuse to service its debt on good terms (as it would have no debt to service!).


The real powder keg is the political ramifications for other countries that went down the same austerity path. This could be the first in a line of dominos as multiple southern European countries vote in far-left groups with the goal of 'Doing a Greece'.

[Lightwave]

I'm not sure it's a given that one EU country can default on debts to another without consequences.

[DodgyAgent]

I think the model may be more like a small bankrupt company being taken over by a big profitable company....

I strongly suspect Greece will emerge more tightly bound into Russia rather than less.
Possibly being directly managed at operational level by the Kremlin?

But if they do leave the euro, I think they may have to leave the EU....

FTFY

[suityou01]

FTFY

<cap doff to DA>

[DodgyAgent]

<cap doff to DA>

remember folks you heard it here first