Next PM of rUK

[Old Greg]

If Cameron stood down, then there would be a party election to appoint a new party leader, who then becomes PM.

In the same way that when Thatcher stepped out of the leadership election, she stayed as PM until there was a new party leader.

But Cameron isn't going to step down before the next election, as there is no viable alternative.

The bookies say:

Scotland to vote YES and Cameron to lead Conservatives into next general election: 5/1
Scotland to vote YES and Miliband to lead Labour into next general election: 6/1
Scotland to vote YES and Cameron to NOT lead Conservatives into next general election: 7/1
Scotland to vote YES and Miliband to NOT lead Labour into next general election: 7/1

[TestMangler]

The bookies say:

Do you have a gambling problem OG ?

[Unix]

The bookies say:

If the bookies are always right then jut bet the lowest odds.

[Old Greg]

Do you have a gambling problem OG ?

No, but money doesn't lie.

Actually, I only ever bet on politics and have never won a political bet yet, so it's not looking good for Yes.

[Old Greg]

If the bookies are always right then jut bet the lowest odds.

Do you understand what probability is and how it applies in this case?

[Zero Liability]

Smart money is on a marginal Labour win, with a small majority. Thanks to Clegg's petulant sabotage of the Boundary Commission and Cameron's inability to deal properly with UKIP we can't get a majority Conservative government in the current climate, so could also end up with another Tory/Lib coalition or, perhaps more likely, a Labour/Lib one.

None of those outcomes fill me with joy, will kill any chance of getting out of the EU and are likely to be disastrous for UK PLC. You can forget any chances of major reforms of anything for the duration.

Sounds about right. The Tories really need to grow up and make a deal with UKIP, or risk further growth in the rift in their party, and stop petulantly whining about a vote for UKIP being a vote for Labour. If they haven't caught on to it yet, none of the three establishment fossils are owed anything, least of all a vote.

[Old Greg]

Sounds about right. The Tories really need to grow up and make a deal with UKIP, or risk further growth in the rift in their party, and stop petulantly whining about a vote for UKIP being a vote for Labour. If they haven't caught on to it yet, none of the three establishment fossils are owed anything, least of all a vote.

It's much more difficult for them than this. Clinton and Blair used a triangulation approach because they knew elections were won in the middle. A left-wing party can move to the middle and win votes from the right-wing party without losing too many of its left-wing supporters. Cameron understood this and did the same approach from the other side by adopting liberal social policies. But UKIP presents them with a bind. Move to the right and you lose in the middle. Move to the middle and you lose on the right. In the absence of a major party to the left of Labour, Labour can (but will it?) hoover up votes in the middle.

Of course, this is not the only factor (e.g. Miliband has an image problem), but it is a factor that favours Labour.

[Zero Liability]

It's much more difficult for them than this. Clinton and Blair used a triangulation approach because they knew elections were won in the middle. A left-wing party can move to the middle and win votes from the right-wing party without losing too many of its left-wing supporters. Cameron understood this and did the same approach from the other side by adopting liberal social policies. But UKIP presents them with a bind. Move to the right and you lose in the middle. Move to the middle and you lose on the right. In the absence of a major party to the left of Labour, Labour can (but will it?) hoover up votes in the middle.

Of course, this is not the only factor (e.g. Miliband has an image problem), but it is a factor that favours Labour.

They're already a thoroughly middle of the road party, which I suppose is your point. The other issue is that the other middle of the road'ish party, the Lib dems, has very little credibility left, particularly Nick Clegg. I do wonder how long they can rely on people supporting them just because they pay lip service to the middle, quite blatantly because they figure it'll win them votes.

[darmstadt]

I reckon 'Sex God Party Animal Farage' will be next PM

[Churchill]

Why would Cameron resign?

The Scottish referendum is a matter for the Scottish people. He should be lauded for letting the Picts have their day out.