EU to break up within 5 years

[Yorkie62]

Perhaps you could come up with some positives to Brexit then. All we ever hear is how bad the EU is, we never hear how we will progress once we leave. And if it's all so wonderful on the other side, why is this government planning for the worst, and why do Brexiters say they are happy to be worse off so long as we're not in the clutches of the child catcher, sorry I meant EU

I'll come up with some positives when you come up with some actual facts, not those based on model predictions(or any other predictions for that matter), 2nd guesses, opinion, or any other form of GUESS you would like to use, as to why it will be so bad. Remember you are only allowed to use real factual evidence to support your crystal ball gazing dead cert predictions as to what the world will be like post March 29th 2019.

[meridian]

I'll come up with some positives when you come up with some actual facts, not those based on model predictions(or any other predictions for that matter), 2nd guesses, opinion, or any other form of GUESS you would like to use, as to why it will be so bad. Remember you are only allowed to use real factual evidence to support your crystal ball gazing dead cert predictions as to what the world will be like post March 29th 2019.

There are many specifics and facts, but you don't want to hear them. There are also various scenarios that we don't yet know how they will play out, but we know what will happen based on each. There are also various scenarios that we simply don't know but can estimate based on current understanding and assumptions - like any forecasts though, the primary reason for them is not to specify exactly what will happen, but to run varuious scenario and then plan for mitigation.

For example, we do not yet know if there will be No Deal, Deal, or No Brexit. However, for each of those scenarios we know certain things.

Here's a simple example: Under No Deal, on 30th March the UK will be required to charge MFN tariffs to all imports from countries with which we do not have FTAs or bilateral agreements, and those countries will be required to charge MFN tariffs on our exports.

Under Deal, on 30th March we will retain EU FTA tariffs (i.e. none), but there are a number of third countries that we have not yet rolled deals over with. for those countries we will need to charge MFN tariffs, and they will need to do likewise.

Under No Brexit, there is no change to our tariffs worldwide.

[Yorkie62]

There are many specifics and facts, but you don't want to hear them. There are also various scenarios that we don't yet know how they will play out, but we know what will happen based on each. There are also various scenarios that we simply don't know but can estimate based on current understanding and assumptions - like any forecasts though, the primary reason for them is not to specify exactly what will happen, but to run varuious scenario and then plan for mitigation.

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That'll be a GUESS then.

[original PM]

For example, we do not yet know if there will be No Deal, Deal, or No Brexit. However, for each of those scenarios we know certain things.

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Nope but we do know Noel Edmonds will be the host.

[Yorkie62]

Here's a simple example: Under No Deal, on 30th March the UK will be required to charge MFN tariffs to all imports from countries with which we do not have FTAs or bilateral agreements, and those countries will be required to charge MFN tariffs on our exports.

Under Deal, on 30th March we will retain EU FTA tariffs (i.e. none), but there are a number of third countries that we have not yet rolled deals over with. for those countries we will need to charge MFN tariffs, and they will need to do likewise.
.

An why is either of the above bad for the UK economy. Remember only facts, no fictitious scenarios or crystal ball gazing.

[meridian]

An why is either of the above bad for the UK economy. Remember only facts, no fictitious scenarios or crystal ball gazing.

It wouldn't be, it would be great for the economy. Consumers and manufacturers would pay more for their imports (thus increasing GDP). Good news all around, if GDP is your sole measure of an economy.

Not so great for business profits or individuals saving, but that's not counted in GDP.

Which is where we get to the nub of the problem - you'll need to define what your version of "UK economy" is.

[Yorkie62]

[QUOTE=meridian;2621371]It wouldn't be, it would be great for the economy. Consumers and manufacturers would pay more for their imports (thus increasing GDP). Good news all around, if GDP is your sole measure of an economy.

QUOTE]

Isn't that the normal measure of the economy used by economists and government?

[meridian]

An why is either of the above bad for the UK economy. Remember only facts, no fictitious scenarios or crystal ball gazing.

It wouldn't be, it would be great for the economy. Consumers and manufacturers would pay more for their imports (thus increasing GDP). Good news all around, if GDP is your sole measure of an economy.

Not so great for business profits or individuals saving, but that's not counted in GDP.

Which is where we get to the nub of the problem - you'll need to define what your version of "UK economy" is.

It wouldn't be, it would be great for the economy. Consumers and manufacturers would pay more for their imports (thus increasing GDP). Good news all around, if GDP is your sole measure of an economy.

Isn't that the normal measure of the economy used by economists and government?

Is it the only measure that you're using, when you're asking if anything is bad for the UK economy? When anything about Brexit is brought up, do you think that anyone on here only discusses it in terms of GDP?

Take another example, from another thread. Vodafone putting on roaming charges to UK customers. It's not cold hard fact, but I'm using it as an example to illustrate GDP as a measure. Good for the economy, yes? Extra profits for Vodafone UK. But that's not the only measure that anyone is using to determine if it is a good thing or not (it's not even discussed as a measure).

If you want to deliberately reduce any discussion of good/bad to whether or not GDP goes up/down, good for you. But real people and businesses use different measures.

[Yorkie62]

Is it the only measure that you're using, when you're asking if anything is bad for the UK economy? When anything about Brexit is brought up, do you think that anyone on here only discusses it in terms of GDP?

Take another example, from another thread. Vodafone putting on roaming charges to UK customers. It's not cold hard fact, but I'm using it as an example to illustrate GDP as a measure. Good for the economy, yes? Extra profits for Vodafone UK. But that's not the only measure that anyone is using to determine if it is a good thing or not (it's not even discussed as a measure).

If you want to deliberately reduce any discussion of good/bad to whether or not GDP goes up/down, good for you. But real people and businesses use different measures.

So we are basically agreed then that Brexit will be good for the UK economy, using the normal measures for the economy.

[meridian]

So we are basically agreed then that Brexit will be good for the UK economy, using the normal measures for the economy.

You have a habit of ignoring and extrapolating. We haven't even agreed what you are defining as your measure of UK economy, and you've extrapolated one simple example into an entire change.

Assuming you are confirming that you are using GDP, and only GDP, as your sole measure of the economy, what are the various forecasts by economists and governments on what the various flavours of Brexit will do to GDP?

I suspect your answer will be "they're forecasts, not actual facts", in which case I think we're done here.