Cryptocurrency

[VirtualMonkey]

Will BTC even retrace? Thoughts on this:

It is due to retrace but has formed into a continuation pattern (typically). The count looks like 5-3 for A-B so the C wave should take us down in 5 as well. I suppose perceived wisdom is that this pennant is a continuation pattern but it could technically break either way.

[scooterscot]

Don't think so now. A number of short sellers got creamed waiting around $4.5k. When their stop losses got triggered they helped push up the price of BTC further consolidating their loss.

Sometimes it pays to be a contrarian. Follow Alessio Rastani, his technical analysis is superb.

[VirtualMonkey]

Might have had the count wrong. If it looks like a triangle and smells like a triangle then it should be a triangle.
Recounting the previous upswing to allow for a truncated 5th give this much prettier picture

[northernladuk]

Do you ever look back at these charts and see if anything you said was even close?

I wish someone would track every post where some one said <insert coin> is gonna fly yadda yadda.

I find it very difficult to follow this thread when most of the analysis offers is on the shape of a graph. Is that all there is to crypto?

Where was that thread where Scoots would invest money if you gave it to him and he guaranteed a return or something. How would that have panned out?

[BR14]

. Is that all there is to crypto?

t?

That, magic beans and unicorn droppings

[VirtualMonkey]

Do you ever look back at these charts and see if anything you said was even close?

I wish someone would track every post where some one said <insert coin> is gonna fly yadda yadda.

I find it very difficult to follow this thread when most of the analysis offers is on the shape of a graph. Is that all there is to crypto?

Where was that thread where Scoots would invest money if you gave it to him and he guaranteed a return or something. How would that have panned out?

I don't look back per se but the charts stick around online and the new data appears on them as it comes through. The markings are there until I think they're not valid anymore...either outdated or were wrong.
Don't forget that chart predictions are only ever based on probabilities and likelihoods. A double bottom will usually signify a trend change (either long or short term) but not always.
Sometimes I'm spot on (scarily so) but much of the time I've been wrong in that I've under/over estimated the ends of movements. It's a learning game though isn't it. Only been in this arena for what...9 months or so? probably didn't start looking at TA until Jan/Feb. Still very much a noob. That being said...my trades win far more often than they lose even if they don't get the full extent of movements and that's what it's all about...setting up so the 50:50 chance of it going up or down is offset by the amount to which it could go up or down (risk to reward ratio).
It's not all charts, there's market sentiment, hype...dare i say it...lies. Charts are the basic data to work with though so yes...there are lots of charts...and I love it

[VirtualMonkey]

That, magic beans and unicorn droppings

mmm beans.

[Agent]

Do you ever look back at these charts and see if anything you said was even close?

I wish someone would track every post where some one said <insert coin> is gonna fly yadda yadda.

I find it very difficult to follow this thread when most of the analysis offers is on the shape of a graph. Is that all there is to crypto?

Where was that thread where Scoots would invest money if you gave it to him and he guaranteed a return or something. How would that have panned out?

Are you actually asking if anyone has magic powers to correctly predict price change as well as depth of change, speed & direction? If they did then I'm 99.99% sure that they wouldn't be telling us about it.

The chart analysis offered is the same as any stock/currency TA analysis, its looking at historical patterns and behaviours to predict future ones. Often its easier to see that something will rise or fall but almost impossible to predict when and by how much.

It also depends on how long your holding.

It's very easy to criticise bad analysis but there is no proven formula, just lots of different signals that are open to interpretation in many different ways. I think it's unfair to call out someones analysis as BS, this is how TA is done, many don't believe in it but I'm sure there are more rich traders than poor ones that have made fortunes using these types of signals

[northernladuk]

I don't recall saying it's BS.

[VirtualMonkey]

Do you ever look back at these charts and see if anything you said was even close?

I wish someone would track every post where some one said <insert coin> is gonna fly yadda yadda.

I find it very difficult to follow this thread when most of the analysis offers is on the shape of a graph. Is that all there is to crypto?

Where was that thread where Scoots would invest money if you gave it to him and he guaranteed a return or something. How would that have panned out?

That got brought up not long ago if I remember rightly. From memory he missed his target by about 0.5% or something silly like that.
Going back to graphs...my original chart had blue target boxes on it...let's take a look


My original thoughts were the retrace would go to the thin blue line below those boxes. It may still do but it's less likely now.
Looking forward...and assuming we don't retrace any further...
The most likely targets (in my opinion) for the next pop up are here:

The lower green box is technically the most likely however wave 5s in BTC tend to extend even if the 3 has already extended so the top green box is also a good target. The red lines are other significant fib levels to look out for