False dawn?

[suityou01]

Er... that's the announcement we are getting "The worst is behind us, we are officially out of the recession" all the while the banks still hold toxic assets, the jobless rate keeps growing and with commercial property problems, deeper and deeper national debt, the Chinese bubble and banks needing to refinance their debts etc. it seems everywhere you look we're teetering on the brink.

 

[suityou01]

A good post.

If we are out of recession, what has improved?

As Scary says, the answer is "not a lot", in fact most things are worse. The bare facts are that we cannot continue borrowing at 10% and printing money just to stand still. It's like chopping up the decks and the hull and throwing them into the furnace to keep the ship going.

But if the ship can limp along to the general election it can then sink with all hands as far as Brown cares.

Again a fantastic post. In fact this is my new sig. Thanks Mr Styles.

 

[Zippy]

Again a fantastic post. In fact this is my new sig. Thanks Mr Styles.

I rather like the one you have. Makes me feel valued when I'm behind a desk

 

[Bagpuss]

Expectations

 

[suityou01]

I rather like the one you have. Makes me feel valued when I'm behind a desk

Then for you Zips, I change it back again.

 

[suityou01]

That feels better.

 

[Zippy]

Cheers me dear. For you ....

 

[Menelaus]

As one of the many on here with a background in economics and working in the City as a quant, and without wishing to sound like a complete smart-arse, I was one of the first quants to have predicted the credit crunch that we're in at the moment. (Sigh). I feel like the Town Cryer. Again. So here goes.

Hear ye, hear ye.


We were, and we remain as a nation and as an economy buggered. I'm almost less concerned as to where the blame lies - there's plenty to go around and much of it lands squarely on the doorstep of the current resident of No10, not because of his timidity and inaction there - more because of his timidity and inaction when sitting in No11.

We are still in the first upslope of a W-shaped recession. Changes in FTSE aren't backed up by the real economy (e.g., unemployment, GDP).

 

[SuperZ]

I don`t have a bankground in ecomomics or experience working as a quant but I also predicted crunch some time ago also.Although I admit I knew nothing about the dire state of the banks, there were other obvious warning signs. Thankfully I ditched a lot of stocks well before the crash started

 

[Menelaus]

I don`t have a bankground in ecomomics or experience working as a quant but I also predicted crunch some time ago also.Although I admit I knew nothing about the dire state of the banks, there were other obvious warning signs.

Yep. Unfortunately, when I published in 2005 warning of the crisis brewing (and missed only Iceland) I got fired for my troubles.