False positives

[TimberWolf]

The Inland Revenue have a new machine that can detect IR35-caught contractors. It's good, at 90% accurate (10% false positives). As the machine scans this years self-assessment papers 3,000 contractors are tested and the first 30 escape detection, while the 31st fails. How sure are you that this person is due a lengthy legal battle?

 

[chef]

what machine?

 

[DimPrawn]

I've no idea what this is about.

 

[EternalOptimist]

I've no idea what this is about.

i do.
he forgot one bit of info, the proprtion of caught contractors

 

[TimberWolf]

what machine?

It's okay, it's fictional.

 

[snaw]

It's okay, it's fictional.

That's not a very funny proposition to be putting to members of this board.

I could smell the fear from permieville.

 

[BrilloPad]

The Inland Revenue have a new machine that can detect IR35-caught contractors. It's good, at 90% accurate (10% false positives). As the machine scans this years self-assessment papers 3,000 contractors are tested and the first 30 escape detection, while the 31st fails. How sure are you that this person is due a lengthy legal battle?

All 31 face a lengthy legal battle.

HTH

 

[thunderlizard]

The Inland Revenue have a new machine that can detect IR35-caught contractors. It's good, at 90% accurate

Current PCG stats: 1462 wins, 6 losses

I've got a similar machine that's more than 90% accurate. It's a piece of paper with "No" written on it.

 

[AlfredJPruffock]

It's okay, it's fictional.

Are you sure about that ?

Is this perhaps related to ScotsPine's Prime Number Generator computer - has this been leaked to Hector ?

If Hector manages to calculate the incalculable there could well be trouble ahead ... look out for IR666 .

 

[RichardCranium]

The Inland Revenue have a new machine that can detect IR35-caught contractors. It's good, at 90% accurate (10% false positives). As the machine scans this years self-assessment papers 3,000 contractors are tested and the first 30 escape detection, while the 31st fails. How sure are you that this person is due a lengthy legal battle?

Statistics aren't your thing, are they?

What about false negatives?

And 30 in 3000 is 1%, not 10%.

I think evidence provided by this machine would be thrown out of court as being too bollocks-dependant.