stats question

[BrilloPad]

BBC News - Higgs boson-like particle discovery claimed at LHC

Particle physics has an accepted definition for a "discovery": a five-sigma level of certainty
The number of standard deviations, or sigmas, is a measure of how unlikely it is that an experimental result is simply down to chance, in the absence of a real effect
Similarly, tossing a coin and getting a number of heads in a row may just be chance, rather than a sign of a "loaded" coin
The "three sigma" level represents about the same likelihood of tossing nine heads in a row
Five sigma, on the other hand, would correspond to tossing more than 21 in a row
Unlikely results are more probable when several experiments are carried out at once - equivalent to several people flipping coins at the same time

Why are unlikely results more probable when carried out at once?

I wish sas was here.....

 

[mudskipper]

If twenty million people play the lottery, there's a better chance of someone winning the jackpot than if only one person plays. And if only one person plays, the jackpot wouldn't be worth winning and they'd be pretty pissed off.

 

[vwdan]

To keep it in context - if I flip a coin 6 times there is a specific probability that I'll get 6 heads in a row (1/64 in I think). That's the same for you, me and everyone else on the planet assuming other variables are constant and each flip is a genuine 50/50.

However, if I get 30 people to flip a coin 6 times, the probability that SOMEBODY will get 6 heads in a row is higher than 1/64.

(I hope that's right anyway)

 

[EternalOptimist]

not a stats answer but Heisenberg reckoned that the observer affected the results of the experiment.
just doing the experiment affects the the results of doing the experiment

 

[MicrosoftBob]

Why are unlikely results more probable when carried out at once?

I wish sas was here.....

Try it out yourself find out how exactly improbable it is, then feed that figure into a finite improbability generator

That's assuming you understand the principle of generating small amounts of finite improbability by simply hooking the logic circuits of a Bambleweeny 57 Sub-Meson Brain to an atomic vector plotter suspended in a strong Brownian Motion producer (say a nice hot cup of tea)

 

[vetran]

if you go out on your own on Friday night the chance of you getting laid is X, if you go out with five mates the chance of one of you getting laid is higher?

 

[EternalOptimist]

if you go out on your own on Friday night the chance of you getting laid is X, if you go out with five mates the chance of one of you getting laid is higher?

if you jump off a tall building, the chances you can fly are X
if you jump with five mates, the chances of one of you flying is higher ?

 

[scooterscot]

Why are unlikely results more probable when carried out at once?

The more tests per unit time equals more events.

Statisticians use the Poisson distribution to measure this frequency for a given window of time.

 

[original PM]

if you go out on your own on Friday night the chance of you getting laid is X, if you go out with five mates the chance of one of you getting laid is higher?

nope that is a definite zero probability

no one on CUK has 5 real mates

 

[OwlHoot]

nope that is a definite zero probability

no one on CUK has 5 real mates

Unless they're in a dusty old pack of five, past its use by date.