Prediction Thread

[Ruprect]

A bit bloody early for the christmas hat isn't it?

yeah well I figure the shops and the media are at it, so why not join in?

 

[wobbegong]

yeah well I figure the shops and the media are at it, so why not join in?

Coz we haven't even had bonfire night yet!!

The shops are now getting into a bit of a pickle trottting 'seasonal' tat out too early. It's not uncommon to see Halloween skulls and devils next to Christmas angels and shepherds.

 

[BrilloPad]

I predict the can will be kicked down the road. Until 21st December 2012. By then the arrival of Nibiru will make it all irrelevant.

 

[scooterscot]

Ok, I'll start:

1) Greece defaults before christmas
2) Bond prices rise in Italy and Spain and one if not both will default late 2012
3) this will cause a domino effect on banks around the world continuing the global recession for several years to come (I'm thinking 8-10) so that living in a recession and higher and higher tax rates become the norm
4) several European banks go bust and several more consoidate
5) Germany and France's economy takes a severe beating raising taxes in both countries
6) more social unrest occurs and agreements are made europe wide to strengthen banking reserves and banking adopts a far more cautious lending strategy to all customers

7) UK prints another £150 billion before christmas

 

[keninparis]

Cheap holidays in Greece next year when they ditch the euro (probably this year).

 

[Mich the Tester]

Greece to open up borders letting lots of immigrants into Europe, then say ' if you want us to police our borders, show us the dosh'.

Would work for Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland too, with another construction; sell EU passports in countries where they have a large 'diaspora' and then say 'we'll stop if you pay us'.

Personally I think the PIIGS have a stronger negotiating position than some people think.

 

[doodab]

what will happen financially in the eurozone in the short to medium term future (say tomorrow - 2 years timescale)

Greece will undergo an orderly default on a large chunk of it's debt in the next 1-3 months.
French banks will maintain capital ratios primarily by retaining profit. There may be some that raise capital by seeking outside investment. No French bank will fail.
Spanish and Italian bonds will be next in line. Neither government will default.
There will be a push to greater fiscal integration and we will see eurobonds of some description but these will be a one off, or intended as such.
There will be widespread protests about anything and everything in France, the UK and Germany will see a fair bit of protesting as well. The sort of civil unrest we have seen in the PIIGS will spread to France by next summer.
The UK will look to renegotiate it's relationship with Europe and become less of a contributor to the EU budget.

UK interest rates will remain at 0.5% until March next year. By that point inflation will start to feed through into wage inflation.
UK house prices everywhere outside of a few choice London boroughs will continue to fall.
UK christmas shopping numbers will be disappointing but not truly awful.
By 2012 the UK will be in worse shape than anyone with debt ~ 100% of GDP and a > 7% deficit. This will put the UK in the firing line for a market squeeze and we'll be going cap in hand to the neighbours by 2015.

 

[Pondlife]

There will be riots in France within 12 months.

They haven't had any proper ones for a while (2005?) and must be getting itchy feet seeing everyone else at it.

There won't (IMHO) be much civil unrest in DE other than a couple of protests and a couple of right-wing nutters flexing their muscles.

Germany has survived integrating i.e. bailing out a backwater into their economy in the past 22 years and still grown. They can and will do it again.

 

[BlasterBates]

As Helmut Schmidt pointed out, compared to post war Europe the current problems are pretty small really.

 

[keninparis]

There will be riots in France within 12 months.

They haven't had any proper ones for a while (2005?) and must be getting itchy feet seeing everyone else at it.

There won't (IMHO) be much civil unrest in DE other than a couple of protests and a couple of right-wing nutters flexing their muscles.

Germany has survived integrating i.e. bailing out a backwater into their economy in the past 22 years and still grown. They can and will do it again.

Probably will block the ports first. Always best to get the Eurostar to Paris.